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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Nah, I wouldn't worry about moving temp/thickness large values in time for different results at this time of year. 

 

There's a lot of chatter in the air re this 18th aniv. of the big one in '97, well... case in point.  Two days before that storm it was 63F in waif early heat up at UML...  

 

I think the bigger issue is the handling of the placement of that boundary once that 2ndary eject comes out of the southern Rockies and rides up along it.  It's probable that the models are okay this point?  But not certain ... 

 

I also think that the Euro is too liberal with cold heights over SE/E Canada in the latter middle range.. It's typical to over carve heights in that region, by this particular model ...  I suspect in future guidance of the next couple of days .. those heights fill a tad, and/or lift out ...lessening confluence and probably attenuating that much polar wedging.  That's starting to look seasonally off a tad, for one.  But seeing as there is culpable reasons to suspect that set up, I just think that's likely overdone. We'll see

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Fri night-Sat track looks to finally be about where the Maine peeps have wanted it for two months, but 35F rain because the move came too late.

lol that would be fitting for NNE...if we miss a 12" paste storm that's just over the border in Quebec. One of those years up here...

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Euro ensembles have NNE colder for Saturday...probably some decent snow for Powderfreak over to SR/SL land.

I was just going to look into that...my fear is today all the global models have shifted north with that low, and I wonder if it'll just take the ensembles another run or two to figure it out.

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Haha I'll tell you again, I've checked out on anything other than a good warning snow. Otherwise not that interested. But the potential is there over the next week.

I think most are in the same boat. If it's not significant let's move on.

LOl its ovah according to DIT, not even close bro, your week of 60's are a long dream away for you

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Haha I'll tell you again, I've checked out on anything other than a good warning snow. Otherwise not that interested. But the potential is there over the next week.

I think most are in the same boat. If it's not significant let's move on.

Careful ..I said I felt that way yesterday and was lambasted for it...
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I dunno .. one aspect predicted dead on so far by the earlier climate model runs was that the occurrence of anomalies in themselves would increase in frequency as a part of global climate change. Not just "warmer" per se. That part of the argument isn't really detectable in the times scales of the events them selves. 

 

Also, with more warmth comes higher ambient water vapor available to precipiation kinematics.  Incidences of flooding and/or higher than usual snowfall results around the mean polar boundaries, are both also predicted by said models.   

 

It'll be interesting to see how this all works out over the next 10 years... During which time, high latitude blocking is supposed to become more prevalent during colder months.  That has a cause that's a whole other verbal journey...it just is.  Anyway, point being, I think the occurrence of above normal snowfall might actually be favored for the time being.  

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