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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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yeah i'm not saying it's going to shift south so far that we aren't mild and rainy..but there were a lot of sunny and 65-70 degree forecasts I saw around here for Friday last night. I just don't think that's happening

Not sure who had sunny. Most models, including the euro, looked like mostly cloudy with scattered showers.

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I think Saturday is probably too far north but can't rule it out for some snow at the end.

Next week is definitely looking a bit more interesting though. Perhaps as the final attempt at winter to bring a season-ending snow event of more than 3" to an area wider than 30 miles.

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I think Saturday is probably too far north but can't rule it out for some snow at the end.

Next week is definitely looking a bit more interesting though. Perhaps as the final attempt at winter to bring a season-ending snow event of more than 3" to an area wider than 30 miles.

 

I'm not saying I'll get it, but I need 1.9" to break 100".  I'd really like to do that for the second time.  I just need a couple of rogue events.  It would be the cherry on top of the winter.

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When Freak checks out..it's over

 

Well my mental status has no effect on climo up here, ha.  I'm all for a solid snowfall, and this morning's surprise was nice, but basically what I'm saying is I wouldn't try to fight off a week of sunny and 60 degrees if that were to show up, lol. 

 

It'll still snow on the mountain or at least chances to snow usually through May. 

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Well my mental status has no effect on climo up here, ha.  I'm all for a solid snowfall, and this morning's surprise was nice, but basically what I'm saying is I wouldn't try to fight off a week of sunny and 60 degrees if that were to show up, lol. 

 

It'll still snow on the mountain or at least chances to snow usually through May. 

 

The Saturday potential hasn't piqued your interest?  Looks close on the GGEM (0z) and pretty good on the GFS (6z)

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What am I missing ?  

 

I'm not sure I see anything of consequence (winter-wise) post this weekend's cool down.  The balance of the operational runs I have seen blend out to a positive tilt trough of midland depth, extending from the Lakes/U MW region, back toward the SW, with flat ridging and mild transport out ahead.  

 

The two run, 12z to 00z last night ... of the Euro, backed off the overly-robust looking lower tropospheric +PP. The 12z was absurd looking, with only three contours of geopotential parallels offering all that weighted surface anticyclone response ... seemed to violate basic conservation of mass arguments.  The 00z's backing off some on that is sensible, but still looks too weighty at that.  

 

The less than dependable guidance types place the mean polar boundary much farther N, extending a warm front form the Lakes to NE by D5.5 and pushing it N of those latitudes by D7, offering +850s T's to the Canadian border ... The teleconnectors, at least through D10, actually support these lesser dependable GGEM/NAVGEM/UKMET type solutions, so tough call there. Since the oper. Euro did back off the weight of polar high some, it may be just a typical amplitude bias in the mid range by the Euro with particular features. Time will tell...

 

But I don't see much correction toward winter given the diving PNA, the rather neutralized (N/S) NAO, and a EPO that on balance is positive.  If anything this should all correct toward more eastern mid-latitude ridging.  

 

Interesting. 

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Well my mental status has no effect on climo up here, ha.  I'm all for a solid snowfall, and this morning's surprise was nice, but basically what I'm saying is I wouldn't try to fight off a week of sunny and 60 degrees if that were to show up, lol. 

 

It'll still snow on the mountain or at least chances to snow usually through May. 

there is  a difference, he doesn't understand.

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Enjoy it along the water according to Ed

Ed Vallee@EdValleeWx 17m

17 minutes ago

I think late April will feature a lot of onshore flow in New England. 40F and miserable in BOS?

Snowbanks into June? Be like my summer trips to Mt. Rainer. Like to make one more relatively large deposit into the snowbank to ensure longterm viabilty of funds.
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NAM has a nice weenie band over srn areas near the s coast of CT. Sucking exhaust elsewhere.  

 

That's a really nice shortwave...sucks to waste it for 99% of the region. Could have been a nice sneaky warning event if that thing was allowed to amplify and go neg tilt right as ti passed under us.

 

Maybe the south coast can squeeze out a thin advisory band.

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That's a really nice shortwave...sucks to waste it for 99% of the region. Could have been a nice sneaky warning event if that thing was allowed to amplify and go neg tilt right as ti passed under us.

 

Maybe the south coast can squeeze out a thin advisory band.

Maybe the GFS is a little more robust but judging by radar and sat its a NYC LI special

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Can I wash the truck today and not worry about it getting dirty from rain/snow tonight?

Did mine on Sunday...really cleaned it up nice.  It snowed yesterday morning here...and enough to Dust up the truck and mist up the roads to the point of filthying up the truck and hard work of the previous day.  Hate that!!

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That's a really nice shortwave...sucks to waste it for 99% of the region. Could have been a nice sneaky warning event if that thing was allowed to amplify and go neg tilt right as ti passed under us.

 

Maybe the south coast can squeeze out a thin advisory band.

 

Yep, I know. I'm sure Port Jefferson will get  another 6" again...lol.

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Did mine on Sunday...really cleaned it up nice.  It snowed yesterday morning here...and enough to Dust up the truck and mist up the roads to the point of filthying up the truck and hard work of the previous day.  Hate that!!

I try to pick and choose several day dry periods to do it. But my worry is this thing continues to bump a bit more north than even models have it..It has that look on radar

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Did mine on Sunday...really cleaned it up nice.  It snowed yesterday morning here...and enough to Dust up the truck and mist up the roads to the point of filthying up the truck and hard work of the previous day.  Hate that!!

Its definitely a battle but with all the salt and puddles from melting snow its a fruitless exercise, just rinse it . Had the Simonize treatment when I bought it so everything rinses off.

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Its definitely a battle but with all the salt and puddles from melting snow its a fruitless exercise, just rinse it . Had the Simonize treatment when I bought it so everything rinses off.

The salt does not just rinse off. Nothing takes off that grime except a sponge and soapy water..or for those that run it thru the automatic

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