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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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I think they are terrible, but to each his own.

 

I've seen outputs that make no sense to me. Where it will show very little in a marginal column when clearly there is a signal for heavier snow...and then vice versa. I think the specific 12z GFS solution was a bit light in spots.

 

I definitely prefer non-algorithm based analysis when looking at a model for snowfall.

 

Yeah they aren't great, but the 10:1 ratio ones are much better to me than the ones that try to work ratios into the mix.  You know like those text outputs where the NAM tries to bring 18:1 ratios to every storm.  I just generally find the 10:1 ratio snow maps to have done pretty well over the past couple months.  I used to be a real hater of them too.  But maybe that's because the past two months have been easy cold thermal profiles so 10:1 ratio snow is basically a QPF map with the decimal point moved.  I agree in marginal situations they are much less useless. 

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If the GFS-based snowfall maps verified, Katahdin would be over 400" by now, as there's almost always a generous jack pictured for the Baxter Mountains.  However, those maps have been quite close for my area since last month's blizz bust - (almost) nothing forecast, (almost) nothing gained.

 

Haha, yes but if the GFS-based QPF maps also verified, Katahdin would likely have over 40" of SWE ;)

 

I've noticed the new GFS with the higher resolution grid definitely gets terrain happy with QPF output in synoptic events.  Even if the lift is occurring at 9000ft with weak winds, it'll still jack up the higher terrain a lot.

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if that's the case we went out on a classy note, although I doubt it.

0329150814a.jpg

No doubt about it. A great run from Jan 24th - March 30th for all of SNE..Really from Maine south. An epic period and winter comes to an end. Hard to believe how fast it went..it seems like just yesterday we were tracking storm after storm in early-mid Feb and here we are at the end facing an ugly cold wet spring in New England. But it's the price we pay for living here and enjoying such a blockbuster winter.

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Looks like the 18z GFS is coming into line with the GGEM/Euro ideas of placing more emphasis on the lead wave as it spins up into eastern Ontario.  This run has backed off on the intensity of late arriving S/W, and thus, less ANA/frontal wave if any for Saturday. 

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No doubt about it. A great run from Jan 24th - March 30th for all of SNE..Really from Maine south. An epic period and winter comes to an end. Hard to believe how fast it went..it seems like just yesterday we were tracking storm after storm in early-mid Feb and here we are at the end facing an ugly cold wet spring in New England. But it's the price we pay for living here and enjoying such a blockbuster winter.

then there's the 18z GFS
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