Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well to be fair that run was an outlier among its own runs even if it wasn't the overall leader. When it closely aligns to the general idea from other modeling it might not necessarily hurt to consider its strengths and it does have a few at least sometimes. On the list of reasons I consider the NAM its forecasting prowess with northeast snow events falls fairly low. on 3/5, It was off on a crucial layer of an IAD sounding by 2 degrees from 12 hours out....Admittedly, I don't follow it much outside of winter, but I still haven't figured out what it is good for in the winter at this range..... I just looked at It for the 1st time and it doesn't have DCA going above 33 all day on Friday....If people like it and find it useful more power to them....It get some things right sometimes...for me it is mostly just entertainment until we are super close, and then I utilize it in a very limited cautious way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 FWIW, tonight's GEFS looks nice and doesnt have the 850 line cross through DC until just after 12z I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 FWIW, GEFS looks nice and doesnt have the 850 line cross through DC until just after 15z in at the buzzer! (ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 06z NAM looks good to me for N VA/DC/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 409 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 PAZ034-035-200000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0007.150320T0500Z-150320T2200Z/ BEDFORD-FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG 409 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE FROM THE EARLY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW COVERED ROADS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. && $$ MS/KF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 423 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 MDZ003-501-502-WVZ051-191630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.150320T0500Z-150320T1800Z/ WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- MORGAN- 423 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVELING DANGEROUS. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 423 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 423 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 423 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- 423 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 06z 4km NAM once again NAMs the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 06z RGEM has about 11mm (0.43") of snow for DCA 06z GFS also a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Was the euro as robust as JB2 showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Was the euro as robust as JB2 showed? From what I see on EuroWX isn't too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This snow is gonna have a really brief shelf life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This snow is gonna have a really brief shelf life. Brilliant!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This snow is gonna have a really brief shelf life. Seriously, who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Seriously, who cares? he does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Do you guys think this will accumulate on the roads? I really don't feel like putting my blade back on my truck lol. Im in race season mode now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Do you guys think this will accumulate on the roads? I really don't feel like putting my blade back on my truck lol. Im in race season mode now. It might during the heaviest rates. But it will be gone quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Given the timing and rush hour impacts tomorrow, I'm a little surprised LWX didn't put up WWAs for most of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Do you guys think this will accumulate on the roads? I really don't feel like putting my blade back on my truck lol. Im in race season mode now. Put your blade on and see how fast you can plow the non accumulating snow. Best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Given the timing and rush hour impacts tomorrow, I'm a little surprised LWX didn't put up WWAs for most of the CWA. I'm surprised they didn't specifically mention high-elevations in the WWA out here. This seems like a classic case of 2" in the valley and places above 2000' getting 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Given the timing and rush hour impacts tomorrow, I'm a little surprised LWX didn't put up WWAs for most of the CWA. I think they might do a separate package for the 95 corridor. On another note, I was surprised how solid the ground was this morning with even marginal temperatures overnight. Snow should stick pretty quick to grass tonight if it comes in as early as the newest runs suggest. Roads are altogether different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This snow is gonna have a really brief shelf life. #SnapChatmageddon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Given the timing and rush hour impacts tomorrow, I'm a little surprised LWX didn't put up WWAs for most of the CWA. They prob will after the morning 12z model suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This snow is gonna have a really brief shelf life. There's always a glass half empty poster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 There's always a glass half empty poster... Any snow in late March is a privilege in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Looks like the 09z SREFs flip around 14z or so... ~0.3 QPF (maybe lil more than that?) frozen rough estimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Just good ol snow tv at this time of year is cool. Stickage though....pure gravy. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Im not too high on this...this is all about expectations and what you're personally looking to achieve with this, but the 6Z GFS wasnt as good imo as some are making it out to be...this is a pretty marginal look here. Will snow fly? Yeah sure probably, but im not buying much accum in the urban areas and thats more than likely why the NWS doesnt have advisories for these areas...See some white rain for a while and maybe coatings on the usual cold spots but meh..Yeah I know its March 20, just not too excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 DCA got all the way to 39 last night. Not worried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 DCA got all the way to 39 last night. Not worried! Focus on the uber Storm next week. This one coming up is just the appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 There's always a glass half empty poster... lol....next month...the average temp goes up to 93.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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