Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 so the GFS is now in line with the NAM it appears? Not sure..haven't looked at the NAM one time leading up to this storm and have no intention to....It is of no value to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 is the RGEM still any good? If so, I'll take the 0z in a heartbeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Sounding is great.. almost a supercell wind profile. S and SE winds mean snow for us apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Sounding is great.. almost a supercell wind profile. S and SE winds mean snow for us apparently. Bust potential on a scale from 1 to 10 is about an 11......I just hope it is snowing before we go to bed....cause I aint staying up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not sure..haven't looked at the NAM one time leading up to this storm and have no intention to....It is of no value to me I actually like the NAM's recent track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Bust potential on a scale from 1 to 10 is about an 11......I just hope it is snowing before we go to bed....cause I aint staying up.... Yeah even in the city it could swing pretty strongly depending on when it starts. We're not big starters usually... but GFS also in with consensus now so eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I could see a start before 11PM tomorrow....easily http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 My initial over/under for dca = .6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I actually like the NAM's recent track record. cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 cool What's this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What's this? It's a sounding from a model in its wheelhouse prognosticating a warm layer that busted by about 8 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Dressing to leave is going to be a pain. I suppose I should just take a cab and leave my jacket at home. Fri afternoon dews: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 looks like mostly rain to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Food for thought: NAM often among first to pick up the Westminster deathband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Food for thought: NAM often among first to pick up the Westminster deathband. First call for Westminster: 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Bob has been conspicuously absent. He must be polishing his ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's a sounding from a model in its wheelhouse prognosticating a warm layer that busted by about 8 degrees At what hour though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 First call for Westminster: 10"wait till the HRRR fringes them tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 At what hour though? It doesn't matter...It only busted on the warm nose by 2 degrees C from 12 hours out....whatever...people like the NAM, they like the NAM..Who am I to argue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It doesn't matter...It only busted on the warm nose by 2 degrees C from 12 hours out....whatever...people like the NAM, they like the NAM..Who am I to argue...It could have been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It could have been right. I find it funny how recent solutions seem to keep verifying as blends of the full model package that never used to happen. These model upgrades mean business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It could have been right. I've realized it doesn't matter what it shows in any event...It could show 75 degrees and it is 18 and snow and People are going to use it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z GGEM is snow thump time at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Bob has been conspicuously absent. He must be polishing his ruler. Ha! More like bending it and preparing for a world class slantsticking. Guidance is basically coming in the same with slight differences. 1-2 for the corridor with more upside than downside. Not much to comment on. Watching the wizards is more interesting. Good game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I've realized it doesn't matter what it shows in any event...It could show 75 degrees and it is 18 and snow and People are going to use it.... Well to be fair that run was an outlier among its own runs even if it wasn't the overall leader. When it closely aligns to the general idea from other modeling it might not necessarily hurt to consider its strengths and it does have a few at least sometimes. On the list of reasons I consider the NAM its forecasting prowess with northeast snow events falls fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Ha! More like bending it and preparing for a world class slantsticking. Guidance is basically coming in the same with slight differences. 1-2 for the corridor with more upside than downside. Not much to comment on. Watching the wizards is more interesting. Good game tonight. They have more turnovers than Bill Clinton's girlfriends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well to be fair that run was an outlier among its own runs even if it wasn't the overall leader. When it closely aligns to the general idea from other modeling it might not necessarily hurt to consider its strengths and it does have a few at least sometimes. On the list of reasons I consider the NAM its forecasting prowess with northeast snow events falls fairly low. To me, I'd say the more overall qpf, the worse it gets. Anything <1" liquid should be doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 They have more turnovers than Bill Clinton's girlfriends. Leading on the road against the west negates that stat. Final call 1-3" with lollies up north to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z UKIE.. um... yeah... at 36 hrs... a good amount of QPF (10mm-15mm) on that frame for DC Waiting for meteogram to see if that is snow ETA: and its not most of it is rain it would appear after ~0.3" QPF frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 First day of spring we transition to grass measurements right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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