stormtracker Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 By what metric does the GFS look great? Hell if I know. All I keep seeing is "n&w!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 By what metric does the GFS look great? I assume its really wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Hell if I know. All I keep seeing is "n&w!!" And all I see is wet slop at best. Looks warm to me. I haven't looked at any soundings but I'd say people wanting snow need a better model to hug than the GFS....it's not your friend IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I assume its really wetIt is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'll just be happy to see accumulating snow, whether it's 1'' or 6". I think/hope this over performs somewhat, it's been the theme lately. We're running out of chances to see snow till next winter, and we have plenty of time to enjoy nicer weather over the next several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Does a single model even get IAD below freezing at the surface? Doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Does a single model even get IAD below freezing at the surface? Doesn't look like it. 4km NAM does, most generally have IAD at 32-34° at the sfc at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It's obviously not gonna be a big deal on the roads, but we can definitely accumulate well on other surfaces with good rates even with temps above freezing. Good stat padder if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The GFS drops quite a bit of QPF for the western burbs between 06-12z when the sun still has not risen. With surface temps at 33F west of 95 at 12z could definitely get some slushiness on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Snain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's not like we haven't had recent mid-to-late March events to compare to-- including near but not below freezing events. Some of the posts in here read like we have no experience and therefore have to just blindly make assumptions. I am guessing that the model blend/consensus from tomorrow's 12Z runs will be pretty close to what actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Why do people say "2-4/3-6 event?" Just say you think it'll be 2-6". Thus one will be a 0-4" event, elevation, latitude, and longitude dependent. Mountains of WV don't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Snain. I'm sure we will quickly crash to good snow temps with highs tomorrow of 55+ and cloud cover rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's not like we haven't had recent mid-to-late March events to compare to-- including near but not below freezing events. Some of the posts in here read like we have no experience and therefore have to just blindly make assumptions. I am guessing that the model blend/consensus from tomorrow's 12Z runs will be pretty close to what actually verifies. Too soon too.. early cherries are still a few days off. Maybe Saturday if it's warm. Mar 25 better happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I just wish this was in January instead of the end of March. As was said earlier, It will just be nice to see snow falling from the sky once more to end this winter. LOL at the 6+ in Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS Ptypes, looks like an upslope event almost. I95 not looking so hot. The Catoctins and south mountain could see a 6"+ event, while FDK gets closer to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 21z SREFs have 0c 850 line crossing through DCA at 16z... looks like 0.4 to 0.5 frozen 15z and before... 2m temps 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 wxbell has parallel euro now too.. two euros omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I just wish this was in January instead of the end of March. As was said earlier, It will just be nice to see snow falling from the sky once more to end this winter. LOL at the 6+ in Winchester. Those are becoming increasingly difficult to interpret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 para euro wetter 12-18z (similar thru 12).. noticeably wetter on para euro and a bit warmer maybe.. more noticeable north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm having a hard time seeing this one. The dew point is 3 at KOKV. 3! And the temp has plummeted all the way to 41 from 50 in 4 hours! How in the world are we going to drop to near freezing tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 para euro wetter 12-18z (similar thru 12).. noticeably wetter on para euro and a bit warmer maybe.. more noticeable north of us. LOL, I thought the "para" euro was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 LOL, I thought the "para" euro was a joke.It's like Christmas in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm having a hard time seeing this one. The dew point is 3 at KOKV. 3! And the temp has plummeted all the way to 41 from 50 in 4 hours! How in the world are we going to drop to near freezing tomorrow night? wet bulb i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Both Euro and Nam have 2m highs in the low to mid 40's tomorrow From around DC north Crashing to 30s by near 0z in North sections Thursday evening.My local has me at 52Pardon me. 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 HRDPS has the moco deathband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 My local has me at 52 Pardon me. 50 My local has 1-3 inches for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z NAM once again decent at hrs 33 and 36 Borderline and flip imminent, but 15z THUR sounding at DCA is snow 24 hr QPF map has DCA at 0.7" QPF through 2pm THUR (includes rain after 15/16z until 18z) Winner is C MD, but DCA does okay with 2"-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z NAM once again decent at hrs 33 and 36 Borderline and flip imminent, but 15z THUR sounding at DCA is snow heavy precip really helps the cold air hold along with the OV low dying and the coastal taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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