WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We should keep the long range stuff in the other thread. What about useless banter? I have a feeling I'm going to be told to get lost, soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Euro pretty much in line. .20-.30 by 7am. Surface in the low 30s. Flip around 15z (guessing. don't have 3 hr panels). Supportive of 1-3" for the corridor if it falls fast enough. will be interested to see the parallel euro. The 00z parallel euro was warmer than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 What about useless banter? I have a feeling I'm going to be told to get lost, soon. Useless banter thread time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 15z SREFs have ~0.5 QPF in DC through 15z THUR -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_048_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150318+15+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 2m temps sit around 32/33 through 15z it would appear... 0c 850 line crosses through DCA ~16z/17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 will be interested to see the parallel euro. The 00z parallel euro was warmer than the operational. Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Afternoon LWX AFD: A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED FOR THURSDAYNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE.SYNOPTICALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDAND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...BUT BE PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST UNDERNEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL APPROACHTHE AREA...ONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER FROM THE GULFCOAST. ENERGY FROM THE FORMER WILL TRANSFER TO THE LATTER OFFSHOREBY FRIDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE LFQ OF UPPER JET ANDISENTROPIC LIFT BY MODEST SOUTHERLY LLJ. EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTCROSSES AROUND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRYING QUICKLY TAKING PLACEFROM THE TOP OF THE COLUMN DOWN. THIS FCST SLOWS PRECIP ONSET BY ABIT AND HASTENS THE EXIT FRIDAY EVENING.PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN MAY TAKEA FEW HOURS TO SATURATE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE WET BULBPROCESSES TO TAKE PLACE. IN ADDITION THE NRN CWA MAY BE ABLE TO COOLDIURNALLY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL SPREADAMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...WITH THE NAM RUNNINGCOLDEST AND STAYING COLD THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. DON/T THINK THIS IS ABAD IDEA AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT THINK TEMP PROFILESWILL AT LEAST WARM SOME DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. FCSTSOUNDING INDICATE THIS WILL MAINLY BE A RA/SN EVENT...WITH ANY PL ORFZRA BRIEF AND DUE TO MINOR NUANCES WITH THE PROFILE AND ELEVATION.SO WITH THAT SAID...TEMPS IN THE LOWEST THOUSAND FT OR SO WILL BECRITICAL. ELEVATION WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE...WITH THE GREATESTCHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMS N/W OF DC AND BALTIMORE AND THE NRN SHENVALLEY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS EITHERSIDE OF DAYBREAK...FAVORABLE FOR COLDEST TEMPS. GIVEN THE FCST QPFAMOUNTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE...BUT NOT TOTHE FULL EXTENT SHOWN BY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/BUFR OUTPUT DUE TOLIMITED ACCUMS AFTER THE SUN RISES AND AMBIENT GROUND TEMPS WHICHWILL BE RELATIVELY WARM. MOST ACCUM WILL BE ON GRASSY SFCS...BUTHEAVIER RATES BEFORE THE SUN RISES MAY ALLOW PAVEMENT ACCUMS TOO.TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAYAFTERNOON...ENDING THREAT FOR IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Afternoon LWX AFD: The shelter in place warnings will come late Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 The shelter in place warnings will come late Thursday night. You mean the "Remain Vigilant" watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 You mean the "Remain Vigilant" watches Yeah, but we know to remain vigilant around here. A blizzard can come out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 assuming Friday morning pans out, this would be the 4th accumulating snow event, I believe, this "winter" on SE winds if nothing else, that is a record in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 is this the thread for obs? nice spin! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 15z SREF plumes are still in pretty good agreement around 3" at DCA removing the 3 lowest and 3 highest members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 is this the thread for obs? nice spin! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10 You mean the storm near the Aleutian Islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Decent WPC map 4"+ probs -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 18z NAM gets precip in here by 5am... flip around 17z... 0.2" or so QPF by 12z... DCA 0.40" frozen it would appear 18z 4km NAM continues to be a mainly "snow event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 4KM NAM QPF.. looks like all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We just want the 90th percentile map from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 They really upped their map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We just want the 90th percentile map from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I think we are going to like the 18z GFS better than the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS is wet and brings heavier precip in earlier.. big hit N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS is wet and brings heavier precip in earlier.. big hit N and W. probably lots of rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 If only Jan 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 If this delays or cancels my flight to Columbus for the Tournament on Friday morning it would be such a fitting end to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Dont have the qpf and temp data yet, but heres the 18z RGEM snow map FWIW (I know, very little...but you get the idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Loving the trends. Snowfall amounts increasing with every suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 18z gfs looks great for the n&w burbs. WSW potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 18z gfs looks great for the n&w burbs. WSW potential? I don't think so... 2-4/3-5 at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 By what metric does the GFS look great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 By what metric does the GFS look great? blending its precip with NAM temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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