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March 20th White Rain/Slush Event Discussion and Obs


yoda

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I should be at the office, but my 8 year old is recovering from a virus. Since I am on kid duty I can stay home and weenie out for what might be the last event of the season. Time allowing I am always up for some good snow weenie company or a few drinks. We should do an off season snow dweeb happy hour sometime. Even in my remote location I am less than 90 minutes from the heart of DC let alone 35 minutes from Baltimore Harbor outside of rush hour.

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My analysis shared on Facebook...

 

More interesting trends with the data today. There appears to be a very small modeled warming trend at the surface to shift the highest snowfall north maybe about 20 miles or so over a full day of model runs. I find those small changes alone pretty remarkable!

 

What we have going for us is the the fact that at least some precipitation is likely to be falling before sunrise. This is significant for this time of year when the early spring sun angle can have a higher impact on temperatures throughout the atmospheric column. What falls overnight would not be affected by this strong spring sun effect until after dawn however.

 

The rain/snow line seems to be oscillating within the diameter of the Beltway by mid-morning tomorrow. As someone already mentioned, the bust potential is high for both above or below forecast totals. I think the general swath along I-95 would be 1" close to D.C. up to 6" near Frederick, MD and maybe 7" into PA where we stand.

1.1" dca

2.7" iad

2" Fairfax

2.1" Woodbridge/Manassas (Prince William County)

3.1" Rockville

5.2" Frederick

1.4" imby

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