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March 20th White Rain/Slush Event Discussion and Obs


yoda

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NAM is bad for metro http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015032000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=017\

 

eta: looks like a north trend from NAM over last few runs

 

You do realize that plot is showing ~2-3" for the close in DC metro area.  Not that those snow maps are necessarily accurate (as others have expounded on many times), but just taking it at its word, I would not call that "bad for metro".  Plus, it's not like the immediate DC area was looking at several inches for this event anyhow.

 

(ETA:  For whatever it's worth, central/western MD, far northwest VA, and the WV panhandle look to get slammed based on that).

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you should judge it on the soundings instead of the snow maps since 18Z snow maps could have been wrong by being too generous and 0Z wrong by being too low

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On the plus side, the 0c isotherm for 12Z and 15Z only seems to oscillate within approximately 20 miles or so over the last few runs of the NAM. The problem is it's right over dca, but we have a shot!

nam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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