mappy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Down to 41 after a high of 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Down to 44. Dropping quick since the sun went away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Still 50 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Down to 44. Dropping quick since the sun went away. It's going to drop quick and then plateau in the upper 30s in advance of precip...not bad....Just north of Baltimore the column is already below freezing from 925mb up....Perhaps I am too optimistic but I don't see why many people aren't going to get 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Still 50 here you're using a station that is a bit of an outlier...most PWS's by you are 47-48 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 40 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 47/25. Patiently waiting for my snowstormIt's creating its own cold air as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 47/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 48 on my pws. I need 1.5 to make it to an even 25 inches for the year. That's my goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Down to 39 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Jyo still at 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's going to drop quick and then plateau in the upper 30s in advance of precip...not bad....Just north of Baltimore the column is already below freezing from 925mb up....Perhaps I am too optimistic but I don't see why many people aren't going to get 2"+ I don't think you're too optimistic. I think some folks are too pessimistic. If the precip shield was being modeled as spotty or wimpy then we would struggle pretty bad to pile it up. Everything I looked at this afternoon had a similar there. Comes in and gets going hot and heavy fairly quickly. Doesn't look like spurts and lulls at all. Should be a fun event to watch unfold even if the totals are low. I'll be thrilled with a 3 hour period of mod/heavy rates when it's daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 you're using a station that is a bit of an outlier...most PWS's by you are 47-48 right now And yet every news station and app use it for Leesburgs temp....drives me nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's creating its own cold air as we speak Dynamic isothermal wetbulbing is serious stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 44. Let's do whatever this is. 2 inches, 2 hour delay or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's creating its own cold air as we speak We haven't heard from the Cold Air Creationists much this winter. Perhaps their faith in adiabatic processes has wavered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I don't think you're too optimistic. I think some folks are too pessimistic. If the precip shield was being modeled as spotty or wimpy then we would struggle pretty bad to pile it up. Everything I looked at this afternoon had a similar there. Comes in and gets going hot and heavy fairly quickly. Doesn't look like spurts and lulls at all. Should be a fun event to watch unfold even if the totals are low. I'll be thrilled with a 3 hour period of mod/heavy rates when it's daylight. I don't buy the low ratios either. Warm ground doesn't cause melted snow flakes until after they are on the ground. The column is below freezing all the way to the surface, at least is modeled that way out here. Warm ground will limit acc but on surfaced that can match air temps, like cars, decks, etc. we should see "normal" compaction and accumulation, in the areas that make it down to a degree or so of freezing. I'd say low end 8:1 to high end 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Dynamic isothermal wetbulbing is serious stuff Evap cooling is the s**t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 38. Blah. Guess I'm getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's creating its own cold air as we speak ha...Roanoke is 35 and light rain at they're only at 1000'....and they don't have the advantage of a cold air bleed... down to 46...wooo!. the cold air bleed is real (i hope)....PHL is 43/4 right now....everywhere around them is mid to upper 30s..the new DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I don't think you're too optimistic. I think some folks are too pessimistic. If the precip shield was being modeled as spotty or wimpy then we would struggle pretty bad to pile it up. Everything I looked at this afternoon had a similar there. Comes in and gets going hot and heavy fairly quickly. Doesn't look like spurts and lulls at all. Should be a fun event to watch unfold even if the totals are low. I'll be thrilled with a 3 hour period of mod/heavy rates when it's daylight. The 12Z model-suite blend, including the warm-GFS, was near ideal given how marginal the temps are: All showed good precip before 12Z tomorrow morning. The 18Z runs of the models that have 18Z runs (GFS/NAM/RGEM) all delayed the push or went a bit drier compared to their 12Z runs, but that happens quite a bit with the off-hour runs for some reason. We just went through an 18Z suite wobble hours before onset with the 3/5 storm. The overall look hasn't changed that much in either direction since yesterday, so I think many of the public forecasts look good. All give the usual cautions for the urban core while emphasizing more accumulations on grass than roads in the suburbs. I agree in that I don't see the need to be super-pessimistic about this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 44 degrees. Looking forward to being on the low end of area totals tomorrow, then the springlike warmth on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 38 let's get this party started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I went back and checked, my lowest temp on 3/25/13 was 32.8 and I got 4.5". 44.6 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Dropped 2 degrees in 30 minutes, down to 45/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 this is the perfect late season snow.....starts before sunrise, comes down hard for a while for us weenies to enjoy, by evening it's over and everyone's plans for a Friday night remain intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 45/20 Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'm at 46F. Evap cooling has its work cut-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 44/22. Wet bulb is 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 The meteocentre maps show about 0.45" falling as snow imby (this doesn't include the Euro or UKMET). The high-res RGEM actually gives me the least snow. Surface temps are marginal, but the rest of the column isn't bad. How rapidly does snow melt on a cloudy day when it's 34 degrees outside? Given the uncertainty around p-type and ratios, I'll go with 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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