Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The persistence pattern since 2/14 is to expect the colder/snowier models to be more right than the warmer/drier ones. Are we still on a heater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 WWA's verify when we get 4-5"... LOL........not what I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Has that data been ingested into the 12z runs? Could be important. haha.......someone who gets it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 for FDK?...I'd definitely take the upper end of your range....even based on the GFS verbatimInstantweathermaps has 2-3. Probably will start melting back by 11am. We might be able to squeeze out 4 before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 12z GGEM has a nice heavy thump before 12z FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1158 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 MDZ003-501-502-WVZ051-200000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0006.150320T0700Z-150320T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0010.150320T0700Z-150320T1800Z/ WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- MORGAN- 1158 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGETOPS. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GGEM is a widespread .40 frozen. 850 line @ the NW DC corner @ 18z. Much colder in the midlevels than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I have a friend at VTech who says it's snowing there with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 its snowing here but nothing is sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think this one could be a sleeper, one thing you can say is that WAA is not a factor at any stage, it is mainly a question of how effective cooling through condensation and inflow of slightly colder air might prove to be into an air mass that figures to start out at about 39/37 all rain in many places. This is quite speculative but would not be surprised if a band of 5-8 inch accumulation developed somewhere between the I-95 and the southern tier of counties in PA, most likely along the border or slightly into MD. Would be surprised if DCA managed an inch from this, IAD maybe 2.5" -- urban heating may be just enough of a tipping point to skew the results away from larger urban areas and make this a rural special. I do like the last phase of the event as shown on RGEM as this combines a better surface wind direction with better diurnal factors. Figure anyway this will be a mixed result with some happy campers and some ending up without much if any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 its snowing here but nothing is sticking. March sun. Definitely glad its falling at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I have a friend at VTech who says it's snowing there with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s Thanks! It looks like their forecast is for mostly rain transitioning to liquid after 2:00, so definitely something to keep an eye on. The night timing should be great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 From LWX Discussion: CONCERNING SNOW TOTALS...EXPECTING THE SNOW TO BE ON THE WETTERSIDE WITH THE BORDERLINE TEMPS...SO USED BETWEEN 8:1 AND 10:1ACROSS THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'll be content with SnowTV and perhaps a slushy coating on the cartop. I'm a bit too far southeast. This is a MD/PA special, elevation special. Mountains of VA, C MD and PA, good shellacking for mid March. Get the shovels ready. Bob might need to use the Face for his backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 No ukie yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'll be content with SnowTV and perhaps a slushy coating on the cartop. I'm a bit too far southeast. This is a MD/PA special, elevation special Same here, although I see it is snowing on several 511 cameras south of me already with temp in low 40's????? Must be those upper teens DPs. haha An inch will be a winner, but expecting slushy cartopper special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Assuming its open, tomorrow would be a good skyline drive day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Same here, although I see it is snowing on several 511 cameras south of me already with temp in low 40's????? Must be those upper teens DPs. haha An inch will be a winner, but expecting slushy cartopper special. What's your average? I have family east of you in Amherst. I believe they usually average around 15" or so. Beautiful part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 No ukie yoda? Its ugly lol... has like 0.2 frozen to rain quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What's your average? I have family east of you in Amherst. I believe they usually average around 15" or so. Beautiful part of the state. Snowfall per year? About 27, sitting at 33.7 on year right now. That sounds a hair low for Amherst, I'd think 18-20 would be closer, although they are on other side of BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This is all snow. Until it hits the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Gfs truthfully is all rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This is all snow. Charles Town and C MD need winter storm warnings. NOW. This is one of those events where that extra 500 feet of elev can make the storm go BOOM, very quickly with WSW amounts on grassy surfaces and possibly even on roads in CharlesTown and in Central MD. Ridgetops near Hillsboro better look out, they could pile on even more. Route 7 bypass has 700 foot elev. Congrats! Easy 6 inches. You live in that community in those McMansions right near the Rt 9 cutoff, Rack 'em, stack 'em and pack 'em up. The line starts at the Mississippi and everybody better take a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Just to clarify, is this going to suffice for the obs thread as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Charles Town and C MD need winter storm warnings. NOW. it doesn't snow inside the strip clubs and casinos. check that, there may be snow to be found in the bathrooms of those establishments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Snow TV in Blacksburg with 40/20 currently. Temp dropped 3 degrees and DP went up 8 when it started at the airport site from 43/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 wth...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The dark blue line 2" is a higher ratio 2" than the light blue line 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The dark blue line 2" is a higher ratio 2" than the light blue line 2"? Haha! Maybe one is a 'slant stick 2'? PLUS already failed on south side by 50-75 miles as it is snowing on traffic cams as far south as Radford, Va over to Bluefield, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Haha! Maybe one is a 'slant stick 2'? PLUS already failed on south side by 50-75 miles as it is snowing on traffic cams as far south as Radford, Va over to Bluefield, WV Radarscope just transitioned from green to large swath of snow when expectations were for the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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