WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 That is 1 PM... I do not know what everyone is complaining about??? 15z is 11AM on DST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 RGEM came a bit S, looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Just a question: Do marginal events work better in early December or mid-March? My inclination is to say early December because we don't have any sun angle issues. But places like NYC and Boston probably do better in marginal setups in late March owing to the fact that ocean water is much colder? ETA: sorry if my question is off-topic, feel free to move to banter thread if you'd like. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 RGEM came a bit S, looks colder Meteogram shows around 12mm (~0.5" QPF) snow for DCA... snow map is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Baro is good but would like it to hold around 30.35 and not go up or down much. Evap is going to be like 50% of the spread from dew vs temp so that will help. The ground is still likely colder than average for right now so with it at night it will accumulate. This looks good form what I just described, 2 to possibly 4" for around and outside Beltway, 1-2" at the Washington Monument and the usual trace at DCA. based on your assessment of DCA snow, I should be averaging more compared to them, and yet I don't. Perhaps I am measuring wrong and need a spotter class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1124 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 VAZ029-030-040-501-507-192330- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0020.150320T0700Z-150320T1800Z/ PAGE-WARREN-RAPPAHANNOCK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE- 1124 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVELING HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Meteogram shows around 12mm (~0.5" QPF) snow for DCA... snow map is lol Yoda do you mind posting the meteo images for snowfall from the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This is all snow. gee whiz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nice hit on the 12z GFS... 2" for DCA verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nice hit on the 12z GFS... 2" for DCA verbatim With 5:1 ratios that's like 0.5".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 With 5:1 ratios that's like 0.5".... More like 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 With 5:1 ratios that's like 0.5".... Do you really think anything that falls before sunrise will be 5:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Wow. RGEM snows for 12 hours out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Do you really think anything that falls before sunrise will be 5:1? I doubt it would be 10:1 straight through. Maybe someone else can shed light on this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 which equals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Gfs on instant weather maps a disaster. I was on the fence about 1-3 or 2-4. Definitely in the 1-3 camp now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS is fast with moving 850's N. 0c already N of DCA @ 12z. Meso models painting a different picture. Hmmm... I'll go with whatever the euro says in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Gfs on instant weather maps a disaster. I was on the fence about 1-3 or 2-4. Definitely in the 1-3 camp now. I think all of us are more in the NAM/4km NAM/RGEM camp than the GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 which equals..... Wow. If anyone is buying that...a move to a WSW might be needed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Do you really think anything that falls before sunrise will be 5:1? That is a good point I think many of us have been overlooking including myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Gfs on instant weather maps a disaster. I was on the fence about 1-3 or 2-4. Definitely in the 1-3 camp now. for FDK?...I'd definitely take the upper end of your range....even based on the GFS verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Gfs on instant weather maps a disaster. I was on the fence about 1-3 or 2-4. Definitely in the 1-3 camp now. Yep the GFS took a step back in burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Wow. If anyone is buying that...a move to a WSW might be needed? I recall reading in the NE forum how the RGEM was most bullish for them the night they beat the snowfall record, and it's been pretty decent around here this year too not that I'm buying it hook, line, and sinker, but I do put more faith in it than the NAM or GFS at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think all of us are more in the NAM/4km NAM/RGEM camp than the GFS camp The problem for me and you is the SFC...we're probably snow until 9-10am....an 850 temp of 0.3 with every other layer comfortably below freezing will be snow...I doubt we hit 32....though 33-34 is probably fine...last year on 3/25, it wasn't an issue on unpaved surfaces...even DCA managed 1.7"...that was a better air mass though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I recall reading in the NE forum how the RGEM was most bullish for them the night they beat the snowfall record, and it's been pretty decent around here this year too not that I'm buying it hook, line, and sinker, but I do put more faith in it than the NAM or GFS at this point I hear that. Curious how the Euro will play out now. This could be silly come AM rush hour. Thankfully...I'll watch it unfold from the home office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS is fast with moving 850's N. 0c already N of DCA @ 12z. Meso models painting a different picture. Hmmm... I'll go with whatever the euro says in a couple hours. Shocker. I'm going with the RGEM. And the wet system. And the incredibly low dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm thinking it can't snow much if all we are under is a WWA. Those warnings matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm thinking it can't snow much if all we are under is a WWA. Those warnings matter. WWA's verify when we get 4-5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm thinking it can't snow much if all we are under is a WWA. Those warnings matter. Has that data been ingested into the 12z runs? Could be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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