yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 4km NAM brings precip into DC region and knocking on the door at around 4am Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think I have about 2" in the bag or .25" on the sidewalks based on non GFS consensus. It'll probably come around like it does. Qpf can drop day prior too but these events like to be moist overall. It should come in on the early side too I'd think. I hope DCA is 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 2:43 AM, Ian said: I think I have about 2" in the bag or .25" on the sidewalks based on non GFS consensus. It'll probably come around like it does. Qpf can drop day prior too but these events like to be moist overall. It should come in on the early side too I'd think. I hope DCA is 33 and rain. It does look like that on the non GFS models... pretty much 4/5am or so, which IMO will help accumulate better... on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 2:38 AM, yoda said: 4km NAM brings precip into DC region and knocking on the door at around 4am Friday And continues to be the "snowiest" model as it has DC snowing through around 18z, but thats about when the precip is tapering off and about to shut off 24hr QPF map through hr 45 shows ~0.75" QPF for DCA, in which the majority of the QPF would appear to be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 2:23 AM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: My local has 1-3 inches for Friday Probably a good call, it will be hard to hold onto a snow depth of more than 3" for any significant period of time. In the event we just get 1/2" on grassy surfaces it still isn't a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Hi rez has DC knocking on .5 liquid at 10a with a snow profile on regular at 11a. I dunno man. If it comes in early.... GFS dreamcrusher inbound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z RGEM meteogram has 12/13mm (0.5" QPF) snow for DCA before the flip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:23 AM, Ian said: Hi rez has DC knocking on .5 liquid at 10a with a snow profile on regular at 11a. I dunno man. If it comes in early.... GFS dreamcrusher inbound? GFS was screwing up the last snow event (too low qpf) until about 24 hrs. out if I recall it may be doing the same thing here....bump up the qpf and the atmosphere stays colder longer so the combo gets you the NAM/RGEM possible that it's the same problem this time....or it humiliates the RGEM/NAM and Hi-Res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:23 AM, Ian said: Hi rez has DC knocking on .5 liquid at 10a with a snow profile on regular at 11a. I dunno man. If it comes in early.... GFS dreamcrusher inbound? It's interesting that as we get closer models get snowier with this. I'm still having a hard time getting enthused though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:31 AM, stormtracker said: It's interesting that as we get closer models get snowier with this. I'm still having a hard time getting enthused though. I am getting more and more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:31 AM, stormtracker said: It's interesting that as we get closer models get snowier with this. I'm still having a hard time getting enthused though. Elevation will matter but if we get it in early enough it might not be critical. Seems we have pretty good odds of at least .15-.2 by 12z which even being mean with could give us an inch.. then at least some brief mod+ banding before flip? See what GFS says in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:37 AM, Ian said: Elevation will matter but if we get it in early enough it might not be critical. Seems we have pretty good odds of at least .15-.2 by 12z which even being mean with could give us an inch.. then at least some brief mod+ banding before flip? See what GFS says in a sec. GFS has been stingy as of late though. I don't hold out much hope for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:39 AM, stormtracker said: GFS has been stingy as of late though. I don't hold out much hope for that lol it's warmer at 30.. but a little quicker. :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:39 AM, stormtracker said: GFS has been stingy as of late though. I don't hold out much hope for that I thought the 18z run was much approved over the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think it's probably better.. 0c already teasing DC at 9z but also about .25" liquid by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 DCA still snow at 12z.. a good bit wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 all snow dc north .. 850 makes it to southern part of northern md counties by 15z and into PA after. sfc is OK not great but we knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:42 AM, Ian said: DCA still snow at 12z.. a good bit wetter looks like mostly rain to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS has snow starting right after 11PM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=027&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150319+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 we might oscillate here in the city depending on intensity...probably flip fully around 8-9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:47 AM, BTRWx said: looks like mostly rain to me I don't think so.. maybe some to start. This is 12z at DCA. It goes bad probably right after.. 850 seems like a decent enough measure on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 10:1 ratios may be too high though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:49 AM, Ian said: I don't think so.. maybe some to start. This is 12z at DCA. It goes bad probably right after.. 850 seems like a decent enough measure on this one. why are ncep 2m t so warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:50 AM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: 10:1 ratios may be too high though wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:47 AM, mitchnick said: GFS has snow starting right after 11PM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=027&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150319+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 It's probably rain to start or white rain for you and me, but should flip completely after midnight,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It is wetter at 12z than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:52 AM, WestminsterDeathband said: It's probably rain to start or white rain for you and me, but should flip completely after midnight,, so the GFS is now in line with the NAM it appears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:51 AM, BTRWx said: why are ncep 2m t so warm... not the best.. doable though with rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On 3/19/2015 at 3:54 AM, BTRWx said: so the GFS is now in line with the NAM it appears? nah, at least not around BWI GFS moved toward it, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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