yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 00z GFS decent... ofc N and W burbs do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 00z GGEM bullseyes N VA and has snow starting ~5am or so and ending around 2pm... UKIE looks okay as well but better N and W of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 0z GFS looks interesting starting at around 6 AM for NOVA. Only 48 hours from now. Might be time to start taking this threat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Not bad. Haven't looked too deep into the details yet myself, but this seems close to what I was initially thinking (if not a hair more aggressive than my current thinking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 According to NAM 4k, ALL OF THIS (DC north and northwest) would fall as snow with a bit more to come....it's been a while since we've been NAM'd. I've missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm just gonna go with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm just gonna go with the NAM6z gfs and nam both look better than their 0z runsnice if it's a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm just gonna go with the NAM I'll 2nd that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 ^^ ugh, for reals? come on, I'm finally snow free at home... someone else take the NAM .3qpf. I dont want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm not saying I buy the higher totals but tropical tidbits nam snow maps have had an issue for a while. They have looked low compared to other nam output and sometimes were obviously off. For some reason it only seems to happen with the 06z and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Euro snow map has 3"+ for much of dca/bwi area, more near PA border...5ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Euro snow map has 3"+ for much of dca/bwi area, more near PA border...5ish What about west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 ^^ ugh, for reals? come on, I'm finally snow free at home... someone else take the NAM .3qpf. I dont want it. Nam has me around .5 and 4K is around .75 here. I'll take my chances with that and marginal temps, will need rates to overcome. EDIT- I not talking big stuff, I'll consider 2 inches a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Euro snow map has 3"+ for much of dca/bwi area, more near PA border...5ish Let's do this one! Why not. Nothing we can do about it. Spring will get here soon enough. I hope we can score some early road stickage. Well that's the kids thoughts anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Euro has the event beginning around 08 UT (4AM). It also shows rain-or-snow to snow to rain scenario with temperatures in the mid-30s (coldest I see is 1.1 C, although I only have instantaneous output at 3 hr intervals). 850 temperatures rise above freezing around 13 UT at DCA and 15 UT at BWI. ~0.65 inches of precip with ~0..05 inches per hour for ~a 13-hour period. BWI (DCA) has ~0.4 (0.35)" of precip before the 850 temperatures rise above 0. At 8/1 that would be the 3" that the snow algorithms show (making the dubious assumption of no meltage) 60 degrees or so on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We would need the rates prior to sunrise to see these 3"+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 SREF plumes (for what they are worth) show pretty good agreement once you take out the outliers on the high and low end of around 2-3" All but 2 members predict around 2" or more at DCA fwiw http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150318&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 06z RGEM has ~3mm of snow for DCA as the run ends at 54 hrs (12z THUR).. more S and W of town... it would appear it would still be snowing after hr 54 for at least a lil while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 SREF plumes (for what they are worth) show pretty good agreement once you take out the outliers on the high and low end of around 2-3" All but 2 members predict around 2" or more at DCA fwiw http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150318&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Mean at IAD is close to 5".. all members have at least 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Bob, The JYO EPS snow chart looks like it does in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Bob, The JYO EPS snow chart looks like it does in February I've been watching it. We need the 24-25th to pan out. That's the bigger storm setup even though ops are squashing it right now. Unfortunately, the EPS has remained about the same for the last few days and not gaining support. Still not a dead period yet. I'll take my 1-2" of slush and like it Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I think even the city looks good for 1-2" as of right now. Problem with these events, is it melts when you lull, so it makes it hard to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 RGEM ensemble looks a little snowier than the GGEM ensemble for Friday, but as far as I know there is no way to get the RGEM ensemble mean. For fun: one of the GGEM ensemble members drops about 3" qpf as snow on DC on the 25th-26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I think even the city looks good for 1-2" as of right now. Problem with these events, is it melts when you lull, so it makes it hard to measure. this would go into the category of "weenie bonus snow" in my mind it's guaranteed not to hang around long, but it is still nice to see and adds to the season's total ....and the fact that it pi$$e$ off the spring lovers gives it some added value too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 12z NAM very nice at 48 and 51.. snow comes right before sunrise and DCA is 31/32 at 12z NAM'd DCA is still a snow sounding at 51, but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NAM'd0.50"+ all snow here with the surface below freezing through 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Let's do this one! Why not. Nothing we can do about it. Spring will get here soon enough. I hope we can score some early road stickage. Well that's the kids thoughts anyway. shhh, go back to drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 this would go into the category of "weenie bonus snow" in my mind it's guaranteed not to hang around long, but it is still nice to see and adds to the season's total ....and the fact that it pi$$e$ off the spring lovers gives it some added value too Yeah, crazy people who like spring. What's wrong with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It won't put me over 50" but it will make that within reach maybe if the 25th comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The trend towards maximizing minor events as leads shorten has been a general theme for a while around here. We're spoiled now. When we regress back to a long cruise on the failboat it's going to be rough in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.