SR Airglow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS seems a bit faster so far through 48, perhaps a bit stronger to our SW as well. Won't look like the NAM, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Hmmm see I think Miller As are the best tracks for up here. Miller Bs are too far east most of the time.. There are plenty of coastal hugging miller B systems though. It's not always miller As. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS essentially holds for CT and WMA, trimmed back a bit NE of the MA/CT/RI tripoint as it doesn't have the hangback on Saturday as much but still a solid advisory event for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 18Z GFS looks a little better organized to me with the surface low, tracks it farther NW and a bit stronger as well. Even though the precipitation field didn't change that much the look of the surface features look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Hmmm see I think Miller As are the best tracks for up here. Miller Bs are too far east most of the time. Not to derail this thread, But i find storms that develop off the delmarva seem to perform better up here then the ones coming out of the Gulf that redevelop off the Carolinas or Hatteras and move up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 So... what's the verdict? From where I am sitting this looks like a miss for our neck of the woods. Perhaps more for NYC and south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nice!! Would be great to come home to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Not to derail this thread, But i find storms that develop off the delmarva seem to perform better up here then the ones coming out of the Gulf that redevelop off the Carolinas or Hatteras and move up the coast There's some truth to that; the Miller B (Del M.) tend to have a lot more torque dynamics, because they come down in the N streams wicked wind belt, any S/W embedded in that is likely to have the whopper voritcity max/DPVA. It's usually a burning fuse looking for a pool of explosive. But we can't discount Miller A's (obviously we know this, just sayin'...) entirely. Jan 20th, 1978 dumped some 19" of snow at Logan, from a Miller A that had all of a 1000mb low associated. It was really just a massive plume of southern PWAT air bundled up the coast by relatively weaker mechanics. I mean, things offset... Case in point, many of our storms during our record breaking season this year, had paltry water content. Can we imagine if that 108" was all blue opal snow? Man, the impact... I mean, you guys have to appreciate how lucky we were that was not dense pack that froze right after each event. We'd a had pancake housing and thoroughfare shut downs way way more common. We got it easy. Anyway, a super rich lop over pattern can puke snow with very weak pressure structures. Meanwhile, I've seen clippers with 50kt back side wind pulses dump a gossamer 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 So... what's the verdict? From where I am sitting this looks like a miss for our neck of the woods. Perhaps more for NYC and south coast Its 3-6 to Pike and 2-4 for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Yea, he's jaded.OkI honestly don't see it. But I am just dabbling. Will and Scooter and you and Blizz say more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'd go with a general 2-4" for CT... not sold on higher amounts yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 12Z ECMWF Parallel is slightly south of the OP with a bit less qpf and thus less snowfall. It's supposed to take over as the Op on April 14th fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 12Z ECMWF Parallel is slightly south of the OP with a bit less qpf and thus less snowfall. It's supposed to take over as the Op on April 14th fwiw. The 18z Orthogonal was a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Which ones were these?the ones which move nne off va capes...feb 1988, apr 83, jan 03, jan 99, feb 87(yes there was one) just off the top of my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The perpendicular was parallel to the obtuse isosceles and looked amazing. Seriously so I don't get in trouble the GFS looked about the same Hoping some of the more amped Euro Ensemble members play out I would love a 6 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The perpendicular was parallel to the obtuse isosceles and looked amazing. Seriously so I don't get in trouble the GFS looked about the same Hoping some of the more amped Euro Ensemble members play out I would love a 6 inch snowfall. You've got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 the ones which move nne off va capes...feb 1988, apr 83, jan 03, jan 99, feb 87(yes there was one) just off the top of my head Well if those were the good ole days , I can provide about 30 more that screwed you. There is a reason why you avg maybe 8" more than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well if those were the good ole days , I can provide about 30 more that screwed you. There is a reason why you avg maybe 8" more than I do.i acknowledged that i get screwed in almost all set ups, those just dont iritate me as much...the result for me is always generally the same...and i am aware this isnt the thread for this so my apologies to the moderators.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The 18z Orthogonal was a huge hit. It will be interesting to watch the Parallel run though because it will become the new EURO in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It will be interesting to watch the Parallel run though because it will become the new EURO in a month.supposed to have fixed the convective feedback issues with east coast winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 supposed to have fixed the convective feedback issues with east coast winter storms Nice, someone also posted p-type improvements and QPF or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 i acknowledged that i get screwed in almost all set ups, those just dont iritate me as much...the result for me is always generally the same...and i am aware this isnt the thread for this so my apologies to the moderators.. And I'm not being a dink. Trust me, I can get screwed big time where I am. Probably will again soon enough. It's a high variance area for snow. We are all at the mercy of Mother Nature. Nothing we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The 18z Orthogonal was a huge hit.Did the precip shield make it up to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Congrats to 40/70 (Ray?) For the name for this thread. Threat is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm riding the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'd put advisory level snows here at probably 50/50.... Still think this could flame out as we close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z RGEM at 48h looks pretty good. it looks pretty similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Harvey Leonard going with nothing N of the Pike in his latest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Harv sill going little to nothing n of pike, few inches south. I think he is dead wrong. Not often I feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 00z RGEM at 48h looks pretty good. it looks pretty similar to the Euro.Not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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