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Will, what has caused these SWs to shred as they progress through sne?

Confluence n of ME?

 

Yeah at times...this particular one is sort of going against a SE ridge that builds as it moves to the east north of it. But we're not done yet, it def trended stronger on the 12z guidance that has come out so far.

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Yeah at times...this particular one is sort of going against a SE ridge that builds as it moves to the east north of it. But we're not done yet, it def trended stronger on the 12z guidance that has come out so far.

Thanks...I figured this one was not compressed by confluence because NS gets ripped.

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This low will actually be developing so I would not say it's shredding. That hang back into ern areas is a sign of that. These systems that were more for CT into SE MA jacks (except this weekend which was an inv trough) seem to be climo for them. Not that you expect snow on S winds, but I feel like those setups usually yield a nice burst of lift into CT where SW winds travel over a cold dome thanks to trajectory off land. Basically better isentropic lift. The earlier system that nailed the south coast was more of a deformation type band.

Just lousy fast flow too. I don't know if I would blame confluence north of Majne with south winds, vs fast flow and weak systems.

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This low will actually be developing so I would not say it's shredding. That hang back into ern areas is a sign of that. These systems that were more for CT into SE MA jacks (except this weekend which was an inv trough) seem to be climo for them. Not that you expect snow on S winds, but I feel like those setups usually yield a nice burst of lift into CT where SW winds travel over a cold dome thanks to trajectory off land. Basically better isentropic lift. The earlier system that nailed the south coast was more of a deformation type band.

Just lousy fast flow too. I don't know if I would blame confluence north of Majne with south winds, vs fast flow and weak systems.

Thanks..I didn't even think of the south winds.

Very helpful....never thought of the climo aspect.

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The south coast weenie-band system earlier this month with Bruce Willis caution flags got crunched by confluence building in from the NW...big massive negative 5H anomaly. Typical anafront event that didn't have enough room to amplify.

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The south coast weenie-band system earlier this month with Bruce Willis caution flags got crunched by confluence building in from the NW...big massive negative 5H anomaly. Typical anafront event that didn't have enough room to amplify.

That confluence working in actually benefitted those who got into that band, right? Better forcing or something of the sort? I'm glad this isn't the same setup. More room for those of us N of the Pike.
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That confluence working in actually benefitted those who got into that band, right? Better forcing or something of the sort? I'm glad this isn't the same setup. More room for those of us N of the Pike.

 

Yeah it increased the frontogenesis...so if you got into it, it was a good thing. When confluence is further north, we often benefit from its effects of increasing ML frontogenesis.

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The south coast weenie-band system earlier this month with Bruce Willis caution flags got crunched by confluence building in from the NW...big massive negative 5H anomaly. Typical anafront event that didn't have enough room to amplify.

Yeah that was a confluence example. Best one really. I just meant that it was different than the other south wind deals.

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Verbatim it gets a little milder between 925-850 after 12z Saturday up into SNE..but whatever..good look.

 

SE MA might flip to rain Sat morning, but I think BOS northward would probably be fine...maybe ending as some mix or something.

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SE MA might flip to rain Sat morning, but I think BOS northward would probably be fine...maybe ending as some mix or something.

 

Yeah damage done by that point. I also wonder if it's getting too happy with diurnal temps during precip events like it sometimes tends to do. Eh, not that we should worry about stuff like that yet...lets just try to get precip in here first. Funny how the s/w flying east on Saturday morning is like "not so fast" to the departing low. 

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You guys in CT would benefit from the front end stuff, or first wave of precip. The CT valley isn't a good spot to get redeveloping precip most of the time. That's like saying why can't my area get CAD.

regardless it's a nice over running event. If it bumps a little bit further north the Connecticut River Valley could even get more ,my goodness I don't understand the complaining by codfish it's late March and we're all likely going to snow.

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How warm will it get on Saturday ahead of the front? upper 30's-low 40's?

 

It depends on how much hang-back precip there is...it might barely get above freezing (if at all) over areas where steady precip falls into Sat afternoon. If it shuts off earlier, prob spikes to U30s/L40s.

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