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I remember a few days ago even yesterday actually.. forecasts had Sunday and Monday in the 30's to near 40. Instead everyone stays in the 20's tomorrow.

 

 

Also I'd bet there's some of those sneaky Lake effect streamers tomorrow that make into SNE..and everyone's like..wow what a surprise

Rip and read. Sun-Mon has looked damn cold for awhile.
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Streamers that actually give more than a coating or a half inch are something that hardly ever happens outside of the west slopes of CT/MA...sometimes far SW CT can sneak one since the hills die north of them, but for the rest of us...hardly ever happens. You need an actual separate impulse like a strong vortmax to carry the lift over the mountains. It's often what happens in a good windex event.

 

I don't see great windex parameters...pretty marginal. So while there could be a lot of clouds and flurries around, good squalls outside the mountains will be tough to come by. There's probably a better chance for flurries tomorrow than monday, but couldn't rule them out either day.

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I remember a few days ago even yesterday actually.. forecasts had Sunday and Monday in the 30's to near 40. Instead everyone stays in the 20's tomorrow.

Also I'd bet there's some of those sneaky Lake effect streamers tomorrow that make into SNE..and everyone's like..wow what a surprise

Over/under 35 max ASOS temp in CT tomorrow? I'll take the over.
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So with the additional 1.5" overnight and this morning...I ended this event with 4.1". Not too shabby. Made this winter officially the 2nd snowiest since moving to CT in 2006. Really, a pretty impressive period for an area that probably should average around 30"/yr. Here are my biggest winters since moving here:

 

2010-11: 55.6

2014-15: 55.7

2012-13: 60.0

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I think I'd take the under on 35F...over on 30F for BDL. There will be pretty strong CAA during the day. If the bet is anywhere in CT...I'd pass. I wouldn't bet against Libationville.

Record min high temp at BDR tomorrow is 32, and 36 for Monday. FWIW OKX has 30s across all of their CT zones tomorrow and Monday.
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Record min high temp at BDR tomorrow is 32, and 36 for Monday. FWIW OKX has 30s across all of their CT zones tomorrow and Monday.

I expect low to mid-30s both days for daytime highs at most CT stations both days. Model 2m temps continue to show a cold bias.
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Threadex has a record low max of 26F (2004) at CON for tomorrow. MAV/MET for tomorrow afternoon is 26F/22F. It's too bad we'll be near freezing at 5Z tonight.

 

Both sets of MOS guidance have ORH below their record low max for tomorrow (25F in 2002), but they'll be higher than that at 5z as well.

 

Monday doesn't have a chance...the coldest record low max around these dates at 21F in 1906.

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Both sets of MOS guidance have ORH below their record low max for tomorrow (25F in 2002), but they'll be higher than that at 5z as well.

 

Monday doesn't have a chance...the coldest record low max around these dates at 21F in 1906.

Kinda OT, but I was just glancing through the records and still love how much 4/7/82 stands out like a sore thumb. ORH and CON both had a high of 21F that snowy day. It got me thinking if a max of <=32F was theoretically possible for the first few days of May at ORH or CON. Climo norms climb about 10F every month during Spring so that 21F on 4/7 would be comparable to about 31-32F on 5/7. Of course standard deviations start to decrease entering the warm season as well so that has to be taken into account.

 

What say you?

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Kinda OT, but I was just glancing through the records and still love how much 4/7/82 stands out like a sore thumb. ORH and CON both had a high of 21F that snowy day. It got me thinking if a max of <=32F was theoretically possible for the first few days of May at ORH or CON. Climo norms climb about 10F every month during Spring so that 21F on 4/7 would be comparable to about 31-32F on 5/7. Of course standard deviations start to decrease entering the warm season as well so that has to be taken into account.

 

What say you?

 

It would be almost impossible IMHO...though there's a very small probability. You'd have to have like a may 1977 type ULL timed perfectly to avoid the 05z highs.

 

 

4/28/87 did have a high of 35F at ORH...which happened in the morning before that snowstorm began. The crazy thing about the '87 snowstorm was that almost all of that 17" fell during the daylight hours between 1pm and 6pm...I wonder if they could have gotten 2 feet if it was timed overnight.

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Both sets of MOS guidance have ORH below their record low max for tomorrow (25F in 2002), but they'll be higher than that at 5z as well.

 

Monday doesn't have a chance...the coldest record low max around these dates at 21F in 1906.

 

Cheap short data set for PWM FTW. Susceptible low max record of 30 set in 1997.

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It would be almost impossible IMHO...though there's a very small probability. You'd have to have like a may 1977 type ULL timed perfectly to avoid the 05z highs.

 

 

4/28/87 did have a high of 35F at ORH...which happened in the morning before that snowstorm began. The crazy thing about the '87 snowstorm was that almost all of that 17" fell during the daylight hours between 1pm and 6pm...I wonder if they could have gotten 2 feet if it was timed overnight.

So you're telling me there's a chance. ;)

 

Trust me...I don't expect it to happen in my lifetime since it hasn't happened on record (who knows what the numbers were in 1816). ORH was down to 32F during the afternoon of 5/10/77 and that 4/28/87 case is pretty impressive considering precip was light during the day. 4/7/82 was pretty much as extreme as it can get for that time of the year...the highs weren't even during the afternoon, but rather a late high at midnight after the snow stopped. I just wondered what the most extreme possible solution for 5/1 could be. Basically weenie thoughts like I used to have in grade school when drawing imaginary storm maps with -20s and 3ft of snow. :weenie:

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So you're telling me there's a chance. ;)

Trust me...I don't expect it to happen in my lifetime since it hasn't happened on record (who knows what the numbers were in 1816). ORH was down to 32F during the afternoon of 5/10/77 and that 4/28/87 case is pretty impressive considering precip was light during the day. 4/7/82 was pretty much as extreme as it can get for that time of the year...the highs weren't even during the afternoon, but rather a late high at midnight after the snow stopped. I just wondered what the most extreme possible solution for 5/1 could be. Basically weenie thoughts like I used to have in grade school when drawing imaginary storm maps with -20s and 3ft of snow. :weenie:

Mikehobbyist, is that you?

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It would be almost impossible IMHO...though there's a very small probability. You'd have to have like a may 1977 type ULL timed perfectly to avoid the 05z highs.

4/28/87 did have a high of 35F at ORH...which happened in the morning before that snowstorm began. The crazy thing about the '87 snowstorm was that almost all of that 17" fell during the daylight hours between 1pm and 6pm...I wonder if they could have gotten 2 feet if it was timed overnight.

now that is impressive!!! wow!!
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