Baroclinic Zone Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Well we are at 12z Wednesday and it's time to start looking at this potential for Friday. As has been stated the system looks really weak right now and has a lot going against it. Right now low end advisory type snows are possible S of the Pike I'd guess and even that is up in the air as the airmass is not that great and we'll probably need some dynamics to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Well we are at 12z Wednesday and it's time to start looking at this potential for Friday. As has been stated the system looks really weak right now and has a lot going against it. Right now low end advisory type snows are possible S of the Pike I'd guess and even that is up in the air as the airmass is not that great and we'll probably need some dynamics to help us out. Don't think the runs have come out yet... I agree with you, but I'd like to wait until the cycle actually comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Don't think the runs have come out yet... I agree with you, but I'd like to wait until the cycle actually comes out. Now is when we should really see this come into clarity. I believe the s/w is onshore and has been fully sampled and should be ingested into the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm thinking the 12z runs tickle a bit south for Euro and the GFS Hopefully someone scores some advisory stuff, but I think I will be smoking cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 This is the worst seasonal truncation that I have ever seen. Seems that more often than not, a large portion of the area pays for these epic stretches shortly thereafter. Karma leveling playing field. i.e. - 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Now is when we should really see this come into clarity. I believe the s/w is onshore and has been fully sampled and should be ingested into the models today. Yup. Now or never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm not sure what your point is. A promising period as a whole doesn't look so promising....incredible three week period, though. Hope you get your 2-4". Still too early to call it, though...almost. it was an observation and a question,nice response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 it was an observation and a question,nice response You got your response. Yes, it looked better yesterday, but it's still a hair too early to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Harvey not too impressed with FRI. Wild guess- but I think the Euro caves tonight (for those N of the Pike) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 its like falcon crest and dynasty on steroids in here recently....over perhaps a couple car topping inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Noreaster, it's not over yet. Wait 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Well the NAM looks healthier...still not there yet for a solid advisory system but it does drop 2" with perhaps lolli to 3" into S/C CT and perhaps an inch up to the MA border and RI. Kind of comes up from the SW and then gets shunted ESE, but at least it was an improvement. I would feel a bit more optimistic if other guidance improves at 12z...not just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Well the NAM looks healthier...still not there yet for a solid advisory system but it does drop 2" with perhaps lolli to 3" into S/C CT and perhaps an inch up to the MA border and RI. Kind of comes up from the SW and then gets shunted ESE, but at least it was an improvement. I would feel a bit more optimistic if other guidance improves at 12z...not just the NAM. pretty amazing how bad the Nam is past 36 or so every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Here we go @EdValleeWx: NAM actually looks very similar to the Euro. 3-5" from PA to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 pretty amazing how bad the Nam is past 36 or so every time. Yeah, which is why I'm putting minor stock in the trend there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Here we go @EdValleeWx: NAM actually looks very similar to the Euro. 3-5" from PA to Cape Cod. You can slice those amounts in half for SNE...3" lolli maybe in SW CT. Cape barely gets an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Here we go @EdValleeWx: NAM actually looks very similar to the Euro. 3-5" from PA to Cape Cod. I'd feel pretty confident from you points S. S CT to S RI to CC could very well get advisory amounts. It's a little more tenuous north of the CT-RI/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Noreaster, it's not over yet. Wait 4 hours. I agree, but the clock is ticking. We need a more defined S/W and not just an amorphous blob pushing off the NE coast because we both know that won't track N of BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Harvey not too impressed with FRI. Wild guess- but I think the Euro caves tonight (for those N of the Pike) yeah, as many have mentioned, the setup is pretty tedious for good snows, lets not forget it will be 3/20 by the time this threat comes in. The guidance took a definite step towards meh last night, and if that continues at 12z today, its going to be tough. Of course when the euro is showing the most snow we get all these "king is back" posts and what not. If it was the gfs, people would be tossing the euro, you know how it goes. Ride the model that gives YBY the most snow. I could see low end advisory for the pike south or maybe even like providence Taunton south if this trend continues. Its not looking great north of the pike, or for anyone really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 You can slice those amounts in half for SNE...3" lolli maybe in SW CT. Cape barely gets an inch. Fits the March trend this year. Bullseye on the NAM from PHL to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Fits the March trend this year. Bullseye on the NAM from PHL to NYC Ugh more snow exactly what I don't want! We just melted everything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 RGEM only goes out to 48h obviously, but it looks pretty decent at the end of it's run. A bit more robust than the NAM I would say. We'll see what the more important models do. GFS has been stubbornly south, so I would want to see that tick north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 RGEM only goes out to 48h obviously, but it looks pretty decent at the end of it's run. A bit more robust than the NAM I would say. We'll see what the more important models do. GFS has been stubbornly south, so I would want to see that tick north some. Why care about the GFS though? Honestly?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Why care about the GFS though? Honestly?? We are getting close enough that it matters...I know you think the GFS is completely useless, but we aren't talking a 96 hour forecast anymore. Once we get to like 60-72 hours, you have to start weighting all guidance. GFS is better than you think. If all the other guidance shows a solid hit and the GFS is the one holdout, then I'd be more likely to toss it....but if we keep a scenario where the Euro is really the only piece of guidance showing solid advisory snows, then it's easy to be skeptical. That's how you get in trouble like many forecasters did on the Jan 26-27 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Why care about the GFS though? Honestly?? It's had a pretty good winter in all honesty. (Crap --- I took the bait) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 12z gfs looks to be caving a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS appears more robust through 54 at least, not a huge shift north but it's juiced up which may help it on the fringes. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS is substantially improved from 6z. Going to be similar to the 0z Euro I think. Edit: Complete cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 AWFT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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