SR Airglow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 RGEM looks pretty far south at 12z...that's probably the nail in the coffin for the pike region northward for anything meaningful...doesn't look very good for CT/RI either except maybe SW of HFD over to GON...where perhaps 1-3" would fall. NAM scored a coup on this one it seems if the southerly solutions do verify, only guidance not to bite on it at one point or another. Figures that the time it scores a coup is when it's an outlier in having nothing and not the dozens of times it has 20" phantom nukes I'll wait to see the rest of the 12z guidance before throwing in the towel and cutting amounts, but the trend is decidedly south and there isn't much time left to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Prob ok down this way but better south of nyc. Whatever, this is a bonus Anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 NAM scored a coup on this one it seems if the southerly solutions do verify, only guidance not to bite on it at one point or another. Figures that the time it scores a coup is when it's an outlier in having nothing and not the dozens of times it has 20" phantom nukes I'll wait to see the rest of the 12z guidance before throwing in the towel and cutting amounts, but the trend is decidedly south and there isn't much time left to fix it. It's karma evening out from that three week period in the atmosphere's own chatoic way. I knew this was coming. I thought this one would be better, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 NAM scored a coup on this one it seems if the southerly solutions do verify, only guidance not to bite on it at one point or another. Figures that the time it scores a coup is when it's an outlier in having nothing and not the dozens of times it has 20" phantom nukes I'll wait to see the rest of the 12z guidance before throwing in the towel and cutting amounts, but the trend is decidedly south and there isn't much time left to fix it. Usually once the RGEM starts trending inside of 36 hours, the envelope can be sealed...but yeah, I'll see if maybe it was a rare burp run. Funny how the NAM never bit...probably the only coup it scored all year in what was another disastrous winter for that model (which has really become the norm anyway in the past 5-7 years). The mildly infuriating part about this system is the shortwave looks decent out in the plains and then is deamplifies in a non-obvious manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 18z Rgem will bring you guys pike north back into it. What was the difference in amounts in the Euro op vs the new parallel Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 18z Rgem will bring you guys pike north back into it. What was the difference in amounts in the Euro op vs the new parallel Euro? Parallel Euro was wetter south of the MA/CT border, similar north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Wagons south. .10 to .25 isn't going to add up to much even down here especially with a dying shortwave. NAM and RGEM show the precip around here starting at high noon-worst possible time. parellel Euro yesterday showed the southern solution, there was a writeup on the weatherbell site by Thomas Downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Parallel Euro was wetter south of the MA/CT border, similar north of it.Did it have more Qpf than 12z parallel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I mentioned a couple days ago, that this March has had a pattern of having things look decent or promising 2-3 days before, and then things just go to pot at 24hrs out to go time. We'll see how the GFS looks in a few minutes. Like last year, Mid Atlantic not doing to bad in March again. Especially when the storm track normally starts shifting north in March, but not last year or this year anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 RGEM looks pretty far south at 12z...that's probably the nail in the coffin for the pike region northward for anything meaningful...doesn't look very good for CT/RI either except maybe SW of HFD over to GON...where perhaps 1-3" would fall. Pretty much what GEFS had 4 days out, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 I mentioned a couple days ago, that this March has had a pattern of having things look decent or promising 2-3 days before, and then things just go to pot at 24hrs out to go time. We'll see how the GFS looks in a few minutes. Like last year, Mid Atlantic not doing to bad in March again. Especially when the storm track normally starts shifting north in March, but not last year or this year anyway. Ever since I started hearing that CNE and NNE should start to clean up, everything has inexorably trended southward, save for the two that rained on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Ever since I started hearing that CNE and NNE should start to clean up, everything has inexorably trended southward, save for the two that rained on me. it's basically a repeat of last March, except last March the suppression was down to PHL. This year, it's further north, but the trends are always south as the systems come in. (except the rainers as you note) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Boy, the CMC has really looked bad on this storm. Had a rain all the way to VT border 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS still pretty much holding serve...a really slight tick south maybe, but we're talking like 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS still pretty much holding serve...a really slight tick south maybe, but we're talking like 10 miles. Looks less robust down here. Maybe 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 it's basically a repeat of last March, except last March the suppression was down to PHL. This year, it's further north, but the trends are always south as the systems come in. (except the rainers as you note) Basically a much more fortunate version (three weeks) of last season. I wish this would either break, or snow...but we know at least one of the two will not happen anytime soon, so.... When did last year break? early-mid April? The decaying corpse piles are just excruciating to view for such a protracted period...depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Looks less robust down here. Maybe 1-3" That's because it was...but not by much...you might have gotten 3.5" last run and 2.9" this run. In the realm of model solutions it was essentially the same. If it makes another two ticks like that on the next 2 runs, then it becomes much more meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This screams Fairfield County special lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 <-me <- 40/70 <-mpm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This screams Fairfield County special lol Yeah the WAA burst hits them them then dies as it tries to move further NE...sort of can envision the meat and potatoes of the WAA thump sliding ESE after iot reaches DXR to Woodbury or something and to the north of that remains mostly SN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Merrit Maple Mauler....only lighter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Yeah the WAA burst hits them them then dies as it tries to move further NE...sort of can envision the meat and potatoes of the WAA thump sliding ESE after iot reaches DXR to Woodbury or something and to the north of that remains mostly SN- Yeah that's what most models seem to show now. GFS is still pretty bullish around the Hartford area but it's in the minority. Seems like OXC/DXR/HPN/HVN cash in and the rest of us struggle a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Yeah that's what most models seem to show now. GFS is still pretty bullish around the Hartford area but it's in the minority. Seems like OXC/DXR/HPN/HVN cash in and the rest of us struggle a bit. It's had that look since yesterday too. Should be a nice event there. I'll enjoy my flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This screams Fairfield County special lol SW CT March, lol. Although I have my doubts on this one, another tick or two south and the best stuff gets to NYC and no further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 SW CT March, lol. Although I have my doubts on this one, another tick or two south and the best stuff gets to NYC and no further north. GFS looks juicy for you guys. As good as 6z. Let's see how the other models trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I guess right now I'll plan on 1-3 here. Pending on Parallel Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 #CTstolemysnowagain I've got Mitch McConnell setting up a committee to look into it. Joking aside, what causes the s/w to dampen out as it enters our region? I'll give next week one last chance and then I'm over this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 missing storms to the east during the heart of winter and now I'm missing storms to the south as winter is ending,I'm sure that next week MPM and the Berkshires points north and west will get bombed and I'll be stuck with a cold rain and the seasonal snowfall totals across the region will as usual portray a big donut hole over the Connecticut Valley region. Sorry for complaining but yesterday I really thought this was starting to bump north into something more significant and now I'm kind of cranky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I guess right now I'll plan on 1-3 here. Pending on Parallel Euro RGEM is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 missing storms to the east during the heart of winter and now I'm missing storms to the south as winter is ending,I'm sure that next week MPM and the Berkshires points north and west will get bombed and I'll be stuck with a cold rain and the seasonal snowfall totals across the region will as usual portray a big donut hole over the Connecticut Valley region. Sorry for complaining but yesterday I really thought this was starting to bump north into something more significant and now I'm kind of cranky. We got you covered: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45821-mpmcodfishsnowman-whoa-is-me-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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