Space Weather Discussion

[Juliancolton]

There were a HSS and secondary glancing CME thrown into the mix as well, so maybe a slighter higher chance than normal of favorable conditions persisting all day. Probably a lost cause, though. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

lol, just saw it arrived a few hours ago.  Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show.  Odds of it staying that way for the next 14 hours are 0.01%.

I wonder if we are, though -

The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere.  New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product.  Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices.

Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh.  That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda,  but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time.  We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

[eekuasepinniW]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if we are, though -

The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere.  New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product.  Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices.

Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh.  That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda,  but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time.  We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

By miss, I mean be on the wrong side of the planet.

The Kp index tells you only what you've missed over the last 3 hours.  It's useless as an indicator of present or future activity.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, eekuasepinniW said:

By miss, I mean be on the wrong side of the planet.

The Kp index tells you only what you've missed over the last 3 hours.  It's useless as an indicator of present or future activity.

I know what it means...

And I know how to use it.

If it's only a 5 max, you may not see it around here, anyway, so you're "not missing out" - that was the point. 

[eyewall]

G2 in progress now with a south bz. Ugh we are missing it.

[wxeyeNH]

I am useless with space weather but see the index is K6 right now.  Why do these things always seem to happen during the day or when its cloudy?  Maybe it will last another 12 hours till nightfall?  

How high does it have to go before it screws up with electronics and power grids?  Is the K index a way too know.  I guess I could Google all this stuff!

[eyewall]

I am useless with space weather but see the index is K6 right now.  Why do these things always seem to happen during the day or when its cloudy?  Maybe it will last another 12 hours till nightfall?  

How high does it have to go before it screws up with electronics and power grids?  Is the K index a way too know.  I guess I could Google all this stuff!

You really need a G5 for power issues. I wanted to get the drone up for aerial shots.

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[eekuasepinniW]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know what it means...

And I know how to use it.

I see.

[Juliancolton]

If the College, AK station is really at K = 9, that's some pretty extreme high-lat storming.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I see.

It doesn't seem you do.   But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason.   

to each his own -

 

[eyewall]

Even if the storm were to hold it will be a big battle with the next system coming out of Ontario. 

[moneypitmike]

Im hoping gor the best.   I have about 3 mile view looking north up the river.  Im keeping my fingers crossed. 

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Even if the storm were to hold it will be a big battle with the next system coming out of Ontario. 

K index back up to 6 at 530pm.   Jeremy this is how to make a few thousand bucks.    Hope the skies are clear and that we have good thunderstorms crossing north of us   late evening.  Can you imagine a picture looking north with the Aurora going strong and distant anvils with lots of lightning below?  Actually need to do a time exposure but what an incredible picture that would make!!  Wonder if there has ever been an Aurora picture with good T storms and lightning below!  Fingers crossed this holds for 5 more hours.

[eyewall]

K index back up to 6 at 530pm.   Jeremy this is how to make a few thousand bucks.    Hope the skies are clear and that we have good thunderstorms crossing north of us   late evening.  Can you imagine a picture looking north with the Aurora going strong and distant anvils with lots of lightning below?  Actually need to do a time exposure but what an incredible picture that would make!!  Wonder if there has ever been an Aurora picture with good T storms and lightning below!  Fingers crossed this holds for 5 more hours.

That is essentially the dream shot

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[eekuasepinniW]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn't seem you do.   But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason.   

to each his own -

You are one weird dude. I said we were missing out because the timing was off and we were missing out on what would easily reach G2 or better.  Your "explanation" was evaded because the complex mechanics behind the weakness in the auroral oval on the daylight side of the earth, and premature evaluations of the Kp, were both rather irrelevant. 

[eyewall]

On the off chance I can see something I will be charged and ready

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[eyewall]

Any thoughts here before it gets dark? 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

You are one weird dude. I said we were missing out because the timing was off and we were missing out on what would easily reach G2 or better.  Your "explanation" was evaded because the complex mechanics behind the weakness in the auroral oval on the daylight side of the earth, and premature evaluations of the Kp, were both rather irrelevant. 

You stated, ".. Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show. ..."  

It may have been a bad assumption but that sounded to me you were bummed out about it being day-time.  Sorry.

Whether it is relevant to you or not... fact of the matter is, Kp of 5 would be stressed to see it at our latitude even on a star lit night.  That index measure doesn't extend to our latitude - I don't see how that is irrelevant.  Nor premature - you should probably learn some tact.  I'm not some rube in this area of near -terrestrial physics.   I fail the to see the logic in how those post could be construed as either irrelevant, or premature. Those factors and concepts are central to the phenomenon science for f sake. jesus

 

 

 

[eyewall]

I am at the dam at the Waterbury reservoir. I know it will like my bust but we shall see

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[eekuasepinniW]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am at the dam at the Waterbury reservoir. I know it will like my bust but we shall see

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Yeah this is going to be a dud.  The current solar wind isn't even good for Santa. Bummer.

[eyewall]

Yeah this is going to be a dud.  The current solar wind isn't even good for Santa. Bummer.

Yeah it just hit with piss poor timing. I will see if there is a lousy green arc at least.

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[eyewall]

Meteorologically I made the right call but it was a bust as expected. I only wish i caught the surprise g3 in May. Ahh well the wait begins for another shot.

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[wxeyeNH]

1045pm/  Slight brightness to the north but no discernible  Aurora rays.  I just drove up to my hilltop where I have a view almost to the north horizon over the Southern Whites.  Milky Way is blazing across the sky tonight.  Few high clouds to the NW but no real  Aurora visible.  The sky to the north is slightly brighter that the rest of the sky but you had to let your eyes adjust to even notice that. Beautiful night with no moon.  Really would have been perfect.  Maybe another chance tomorrow night but more clouds/showers/storms?  

[eyewall]

9 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

1045pm/  Slight brightness to the north but no discernible  Aurora rays.  I just drove up to my hilltop where I have a view almost to the north horizon over the Southern Whites.  Milky Way is blazing across the sky tonight.  Few high clouds to the NW but no real  Aurora visible.  The sky to the north is slightly brighter that the rest of the sky but you had to let your eyes adjust to even notice that. Beautiful night with no moon.  Really would have been perfect.  Maybe another chance tomorrow night but more clouds/showers/storms?  

Yeah it was hard to tell any glow from light pollution but yeah if it  was there it wasn't worth the mosquito bites lol. 

[dendrite]

MW wasn't fogged in and they never reported AURBO.

[eyewall]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MW wasn't fogged in and they never reported AURBO.

Yeah it was a dud either way. Here is to hoping for better luck when I venture south for next month's solar eclipse.

[OceanStWx]

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn't seem you do.   But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason.   

to each his own -

 

I mean K index isn't always the tell all either. A good proxy for sure, but sometimes the ACE data can tell a better story. The May event was between a 5-6 and the aurora was a brilliant show around here for those that didn't have clouds.

I know at GYX we've had some blah 7s, and amazing 5s (like October 2013 that peaked at a 5).  

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean K index isn't always the tell all either. A good proxy for sure, but sometimes the ACE data can tell a better story. The May event was between a 5-6 and the aurora was a brilliant show around here for those that didn't have clouds.

I know at GYX we've had some blah 7s, and amazing 5s (like October 2013 that peaked at a 5).  

 

Just get us a Kp index of 9 like October 2003.

Only time I ever saw legit curtains with the naked eye.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Just get us a Kp index of 9 like October 2003.

Only time I ever saw legit curtains with the naked eye.

I think it was September 2014 we were able to see curtains on the far horizon from GYX with a Kp of 6. I may be confusing the date though, because we have been remarkably lucky to see several from GYX since I started working here.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean K index isn't always the tell all either. A good proxy for sure, but sometimes the ACE data can tell a better story. The May event was between a 5-6 and the aurora was a brilliant show around here for those that didn't have clouds.

I know at GYX we've had some blah 7s, and amazing 5s (like October 2013 that peaked at a 5).  

Yeah ...in his defense, I was just trying to propose a base-line idea that a Kp 5  was probably not likely to be seen - but he spun off on some validation crusade where he's smarter than me, which may very well be the case (  ) BUT, interestingly enough, was the ONLY aspect of that conversation that was truly irrelevant  ..   

The Kp is basically just when the geo-magnetometers detects at given latitudes the ovular ring is assessed based on real-time detection - but it's an interesting secondary question re the "vibrant" intensity of it ..