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Space Weather Discussion


ApacheTrout
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https://www.spaceweather.com/

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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G3): A CME is heading for Earth following the powerful X7.1-class solar flare of Oct. 1st. A NOAA model predicts it will arrive on Oct. 4th, potentially causing a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. The CME is quite faint and superficially wouldn't seem to pack the punch required for a strong storm. At this time of year, however, even weak CMEs can be effective due to the autumnal Russell-McPherron effect. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

THE STRONGEST FLARE YET: Sunspot AR3842 exploded again today, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast:

x9p1_strip.jpg

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.

Of greater interest is the CME. Preliminary SOHO coronagraph images show a halo CME emerging from the blast site. This CME will probably strike Earth on Oct. 6th, adding its effect to that of an earlier CME expected to arrive on Oct. 4th. Auroras are therefore likely this weekend. Stay tuned for a detailed forecast.

 

 

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https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2024-10-04/you-may-be-able-to-see-an-aurora-in-vermont-this-saturday

The aurora borealis will likely be visible throughout Vermont the night of Saturday, Oct. 5, according to a forecast by the Space Weather Prediction Center.

Eric Myskowski, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Burlington office, said the forecast Saturday is mostly clear skies with cloudy skies in the Northeast Kingdom, though there will be breaks in the clouds. He advised prospective aurora viewers to find dark places with a clear view of the northern horizon.

“Basically, get away from light pollution, as far as you can. Say you live in Burlington, it would be ideal to get outside the city area and to the northern horizon,” Myskowski said. “Where you have a visible northern horizon is better.”

tomorrow-nights-static-viewline-forecast

 

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24 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Of course it goes to 7 in the middle of the day.

As I recall May 10th started in the middle of the day and lasted many hours after dark. All hope is definitely not lost. SWPC expects the high Kp numbers to persist after sunset. There will likely be a number of substorms as well.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

With or without lime?

With lime.

Bt is a bit lower than I was thinking... 30nt is nice but was really hoping for 40-50.

Maybe the jittery data is from the other CME's that were swept up ahead of the main show.  Ideally things will stabilize as we get a little more into the meat of the cloud.

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