eekuasepinniW Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I think the only way to really take advantage of the ambient solar wind in the mid-latitudes is for a coronal hole stream to sort of intersect a CIR, though I'm not sure how often that happens in reality. I'm hoping we're not done with real sunspots for the rest of the cycle. That active region a couple weeks ago was huge, but pretty benign magnetically. Compared to the last cycle, it felt like this one never really peaked at all. I guess that was to be expected considering the last one basically would have yielded a carrington event or worse, had AR 486 fired off maybe 36 hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Compared to the last cycle, it felt like this one never really peaked at all. I guess that was to be expected considering the last one basically would have yielded a carrington event or worse, had AR 486 fired off maybe 36 hours sooner. The 2003 aurora display over Long Island is one I will never forget (unfortunately I didn't have a camera capable of taking good photos of it at the time). It was incredible. Half the sky was visibily green and the other half visibly red and it was directly overhead. i was looking right at the Fire Island light which divided the two colors from where I was standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The 2003 aurora display over Long Island is one I will never forget (unfortunately I didn't have a camera capable of taking good photos of it at the time). It was incredible. Half the sky was visibily green and the other half visibly red and it was directly overhead. i was looking right at the Fire Island light which divided the two colors from where I was standing. The 2001-2003 period may never be matched again in our lifetime. That 2003 display wasn't even the only ultra-extreme event from that period... 11/6/01 matched or maybe defeated it, but I wasn't paying attention. My interest in the aurora began just shortly before that after the massive event on 10/21/01, so I had no idea what I was doing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The 2001-2003 period may never be matched again in our lifetime. That 2003 display wasn't even the only ultra-extreme event from that period... 11/6/01 matched or maybe defeated it, but I wasn't paying attention. My interest in the aurora began just shortly before that after the massive event on 10/21/01, so I had no idea what I was doing yet. aurora.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Oh I am pretty sure it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Oh I am pretty sure it won't be. There will be more extreme storms for sure, but a solar max with a stretch like 2001-2003, ending with the strongest flare ever observed, is unlikely. Most in this forum only have about 4 solar cycles left before we die. And the next few cycles are supposedly going to be much weaker than this one. And don't forget the geomagnetic pole is still slowly moving away from us. Next solar max is just around the corner in 2022-2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Most in this forum only have about 4 solar cycles left before we die. Why'd you have to go there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 The lights were out last night, but this is Vermont, so you guessed it, clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It looks like the coronal hole arrived a bit early. It packed a bigger wallop than your typical CH. Solar wind around 670 with imf values of 17/-15 will always bring a nice G3. G3 is good for naked-eye colors and well defined features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It looks like the coronal hole arrived a bit early. It packed a bigger wallop than your typical CH. Solar wind around 670 with imf values of 17/-15 will always bring a nice G3. G3 is good for naked-eye colors and well defined features. Yeah a missed opportunity for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Sort of off-topic, but I just imaged the ISS transiting the sun and thought it turned out nicely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 This morning's CME is modeled to head mostly south of the ecliptic, but it's still probably worth keeping an eye on the IMF by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Tracking a CME from a C2 flare. How desperate we've become. Though I did get some great pics of a G3 storm from a C7 flare back around 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 There was a surprise G3 last night. There is some possibility for action tonight in its wake. It was cloudy and rainy last night anyway. Tonight should be clear here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 A disturbance just arrived. Solar wind jumped to 450 with bz of -10, Bt 16. A G2 might break out in about 30 minutes if it holds steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 A disturbance just arrived. Solar wind jumped to 450 with bz of -10, Bt 16. A G2 might break out in about 30 minutes if it holds steady. Was anything visible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 This is the coronal hole... it's early and extra fast. Solar wind has increased and the last one-minute reading was 700.3 with a BT of 14-20 and a choppy but predominately negative Bz. I could definitely see a G3 with easy naked eye visibility tonight. Was anything visible? I see there was indeed a G2 last night. Looking at the ottawa magnetic summary plots, there was a pretty good jolt around 2am, so there was activity. Doesn't look like anyone was looking at the time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 This is the coronal hole... it's early and extra fast. Solar wind has increased and the last one-minute reading was 700.3 with a BT of 14-20 and a choppy but predominately negative Bz. I could definitely see a G3 with easy naked eye visibility tonight. IOW, keep an eye out. Am I signed up for your text alerts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 IOW, keep an eye out. Am I signed up for your text alerts? Lisa is. I don't have your number on my new phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 G3 ongoing right now. Not sure if it will hold until dark. Also we will have clouds to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Particle density and the IMF sure got mediocre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Kp9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm at about 70% cloud cover up here. Back edge is in NY state. Hopefully with sundown now they will break up quickly. Space weather is showing KP 7 as of 6pm http://spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Indeed, the IMF really tanked. Bt had a sharp drop and is very steady at 7, Bz north. With the current numbers, odds of G3 are slim, and G2 is probable. We have extremely high speed solar wind (now gusting over 800km/s) working in our favor which can assist otherwise marginal numbers. Even a minimally southward Bz should perform. At the current speed, the reported conditions provide a 33 minute lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 It 745pm. Just went to a hilltop to look north. Nothing that I could see. About half the sky was cloudy above and to about 45 degrees to the north and I could see stars but no AB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 It 745pm. Just went to a hilltop to look north. Nothing that I could see. About half the sky was cloudy above and to about 45 degrees to the north and I could see stars but no AB.No ISS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Clouds killed us tonight. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Clouds killed us tonight. Sent from my VS986 The good (?) news is that there's nothing going on... 750 km/s of ~1 atom/sqcm solar wind seems like a Yellowknife special. The real dedicated aurora chasers (even as far down as RI) reported about 15 minutes of lights just after dark, but now it's back to the high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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