Wannabehippie Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I think it's an even 3"-6" for you and the coast. With perhaps a bullseye of 5"-7" somewhere unknown. I think that 3-6" will mainly be on cars and grassy surfaces. Streets and sidewalks are going to have a tougher time accumulating that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Sounds good for us alsnow It is, but it's the nam and different from the rear of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I have never seen an event that had 3-6" on grass and little to nothing on the roads. To me- this goes one way or the other- either rates overcome insolation or they don't. If 3-6" falls on grass, the roads are getting covered. If it's light snow, it's wet roads and an inch or two elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How old are you because ive seen 3-4 inches on grass and virtually nothing on treated surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I have never seen an event that had 3-6" on grass and little to nothing on the roads. To me- this goes one way or the other- either rates overcome insolation or they don't. If 3-6" falls on grass, the roads are getting covered. If it's light snow, it's wet roads and an inch or two elsewhere. March 67 . You may see 4 at the park with wet streets in midtown . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Gfs is def colder through hr 42 Rain snow line south of mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Hr 52 heavy snow 850's by Phl surface south of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Hr 54 rain snow line from Driscoll bridge to Ttn. Looks about the same compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How old are you because ive seen 3-4 inches on grass and virtually nothing on treated surfaces Well I wasn't around for March of '67 I'll tell you that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 RGEM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 .50+ nyc to Ttn .75+ Phl and snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Sv snow maps have close to 4-6 for nyc 2-4 northern nj and 4-6 northeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS looks really nice, tries to crank the coastal and gets heavy precip in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS is almost identical to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 People with elevation in western jersey and eastern Pa going to get 6+ with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Granted it's the nam, but 18z nam doesn't get any decent Precip outside of PA and Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nice we could possibly pull off a nice advisory event in parts of central nj to kick off astronomical spring. If models continue with this theme tonight Mt. Holly could increase amounts to the 2-4" range with up to 6" further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I have never seen an event that had 3-6" on grass and little to nothing on the roads. To me- this goes one way or the other- either rates overcome insolation or they don't. If 3-6" falls on grass, the roads are getting covered. If it's light snow, it's wet roads and an inch or two elsewhere.You're not very old are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Did you go to the Blarney stone for lunch ? .5 falls a frozen @ KNYC Blarney Stone is all closed up my friend (at least the one on 3rd Ave in the 40s). I don't care if 1.5" falls frozen in the park, you won't see meaningful accumulations until closer to dusk unless we are seeing 1-2"/hr rates consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Blarney Stone is all closed up my friend (at least the one on 3rd Ave in the 40s). I don't care if 1.5" falls frozen in the park, you won't see meaningful accumulations until closer to dusk unless we are seeing 1-2"/hr rates consistently. .5 frozen falls inside 6 hours. So rates will b better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Blarney Stone is all closed up my friend (at least the one on 3rd Ave in the 40s). I don't care if 1.5" falls frozen in the park, you won't see meaningful accumulations until closer to dusk unless we are seeing 1-2"/hr rates consistently.When I started at my former job around the corner from there in 2011 I used to stop there for some cheap brews and watch old drunk guys get rowdy and get thrown out. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 When I started at my former job around the corner from there in 2011 I used to stop there for some cheap brews and watch old drunk guys get rowdy and get thrown out. Good times A former coworker loved going there for lunch. Of course, he was one of those old guys too. All those bars are pretty hilarious from about 2pm on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I always wonder what the "OLD" GFS would have looked like it situations like these. I remember when the GFS and upgrade were running in-sync and we could compare the two. Both models would have vastly different outcomes at times and the old GFS would be inline with other global models while the upgrade would be out to lunch and on its own. Now we can do it all over again with the ECMWF. FWIW the Parallel EC is a tick farther south than the OP and has less QPF, not much but a little. It feels like just looking at one of the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I always wonder what the "OLD" GFS would have looked like it situations like these. I remember when the GFS and upgrade were running in-sync and we could compare the two. Both models would have vastly different outcomes at times and the old GFS would be inline with other global models while the upgrade would be out to lunch and on its own. Now we can do it all over again with the ECMWF. FWIW the Parallel EC is a tick farther south than the OP and has less QPF, not much but a little. It feels like just looking at one of the ensemble members. What do you think about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .5 frozen falls inside 6 hours. So rates will b better than that.You think we are going to see better than 2 inch per hour rates? That's doubtful, this isn't a miller a barreling up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 You think we are going to see better than 2 inch per hour rates? That's doubtful, this isn't a miller a barreling up the coast I think 3 - 5 fall with .5 these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal . 18z GFS Bufkit for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73 Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ? I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days . I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think 3 - 5 fall with .5 these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal . 18z GFS Bufkit for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73 Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ? I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days . I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them there needs to be a "like" button for your posts. Love them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think 3 - 5 fall with .5 these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal . 18z GFS Bufkit for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73 Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ? I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days . I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them Is this a typical heavy wet snow that we see in March? if so it probably won't be too bad on treated roads, but people might still have to shovel the driveway.Or just wait a day. If it snows in March, nature takes care of it....seem to remember one in March 04 that was worse than progged and we had to shut the schools early in NJ. Same with the April 03 storm. Got pics of the kids with lilies in the snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This isn't 2 weeks ago but 3 to 5 inches is doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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