ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Your right. If anyone is going to do well it's you up in NE queens with a little elevation and removed from the heat island. I just don't see how cpk sees more then white rain. The beast of a heat island has been nuts lately. With no real CAA surface temps will still be torched in the park and especially mid town. It's going to have to puke 2" or more hours rates to cool the column all the way to the surface in manhattan. Up at Columbia where I work, 150' up and miles north maybe a shot at a couple inches. I think the gradient is that tight Central Park is in an area surrounded by trees and grass and they measure on a snow board. They should do just as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Upton and Albany late to the party?Just going conservative as they usually do, especially since the blizzard bust. Not a bad idea to go conservative with this setup imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 15z Srefs, which are almost always way too warm, are below freezing at the surface for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Just going conservative as they usually do, especially since the blizzard bust. Not a bad idea to go conservative with this setup imo. Upton's area has seen 30"-40" since the blizzard alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 15z Srefs, which are almost always way too warm, are below freezing at the surface for the entire event I gave up on srefs, too warm and ALWAYS to wet, I should have beat bostons snow totals this season if the srefs were ever right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I gave up on srefs, too warm and ALWAYS to wet, I should have beat bostons snow totals this season if the srefs were ever right lol The plumes went from 1"-2" of snow to now 4"-6" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Upton's area has seen 30"-40" since the blizzard alone.I'm not arguing that. However, with the setup and time of year, I believe going conservative isn't a terrible way to go. Furthermore, I was just stating Upton has been pretty conservative since the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The plumes went from 1"-2" of snow to now 4"-6" areawide.They could very well be right this time, but seasonal trends of the srefs wet bias have been absolutly awful, I think anyone from 84 South should see 3-6" 2-4 north of 84 for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 They could very well be right this time, but seasonal trends of the srefs wet bias have been absolutly awful, I think anyone from 84 South should see 3-6" 2-4 north of 84 for my area I think it's an even 3"-6" for you and the coast. With perhaps a bullseye of 5"-7" somewhere unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I think it's an even 3"-6" for you and the coast. With perhaps a bullseye of 5"-7" somewhere unknown. I'll take it, anything to cover the mud up in my yard, dogs running through that crap then coming in on dark hardwood floors does NOT coincide well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I wouldn't make calls until after 0z tonight. There's solid potential but still too many moving parts. It's always foolish to disregard the warm air aloft especially this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 EPS mean is 2-4" West and 1-2" East on SV. Most of SNE is also 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I wouldn't make calls until after 0z tonight. There's solid potential but still too many moving parts. It's always foolish to disregard the warm air aloft especially this late in the year. 3"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Can we stop with the CPK stuff? That's Chesapeake, VA. Central Park is NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 For late March in the city, you almost have to go with low confidence of > 1" until there is 1" on the ground and it's still snowing. Did you go to the Blarney stone for lunch ? .5 falls a frozen @ KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Did you go to the Blarney stone for lunch ? .5 falls a frozen @ KNYC I go there a few times a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I go there a few times a week. Clearly , Chris had an all you can drink pass before he posted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm not arguing that. However, with the setup and time of year, I believe going conservative isn't a terrible way to go. Furthermore, I was just stating Upton has been pretty conservative since the blizzard.I don't know why people are criticizing Upton for going with 2-3 for the area right now? It's the end of March. What do the people saying that's too low want them to start with? 6-12 and a winter storm watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS BUFKIT 12/18 for KLGA has snow ending as some ZR. OK snow growth in the DGZ. Ratios around 10-11:1 & .431" LE falling before changing to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Central Park is in an area surrounded by trees and grass and they measure on a snow board. They should do just as well. Looks like we are both going down with the ship. I say The park NYC sees at most half the totals 20 miles west, east and north. Right now I like 1" in the park and 3" elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The 18z NAM shifted south some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nws has decades of experience with March snows as opposed to amateurs..I will trust them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I wouldn't make calls until after 0z tonight. There's solid potential but still too many moving parts. It's always foolish to disregard the warm air aloft especially this late in the year. No one is ignoring warm air aloft. They are explaining it doesnt get warm aloft until the very end. Almost every single model shows a solid 3-6 inches in the city and surrounding areas right now. What am I missing with all of the negativity in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nws has decades of experience with March snows as opposed to amateurs..I will trust them Have to say I'm in genuine shock you are not bullish on this storm. Your area has probably only seen 20" of snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 No one is ignoring warm air aloft. They are explaining it doesnt get warm aloft until the very end. Almost every single model shows a solid 3-6 inches in the city and surrounding areas right now. What am I missing with all of the negativity in here? AG3 is. He's guaranteeing 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Have to say I'm in genuine shock you are not bullish on this storm. Your area has probably only seen 20" of snow this season. A good forecaster never lets his/her personal desire for snow get in the way of having a clear and open mind when it comes to their forecast. I want every event to be a positive bust for me, but that doesn't mean I put that on paper as my forecast. Some do(Quite often to get eyes to their work by being extreme), and while it may pay off for them in the short run(More viewers), in the long run, it hurts your accuracy and your credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 AG3 is. He's guaranteeing 3-6" But isn't that the model consensus at this time? Why is he being argued with for that? I'm really trying to understand that. Regardless of what my calendar sayss, if all of the models have it, why are we downplaying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 But isn't that the model consensus at this time? Why is he being argued with for that? I'm really trying to understand that. Regardless of what my calendar sayss, if all of the models have it, why are we downplaying it? Look at past events. April 96 is the best example. Over a foot on the island and almost nothing in manhattan. Temps are marginal and the heat island can bump the temp up ever so slightly enough to change snow to rain. That's for the city. Outside of the city Upton is probably just being conservative because of a combo of climo an time left to event to change numbers up. After multiple busts earlier in the winter. They busted bad with yesterday's wind with no advisory an someone died. (Not saying an advisory would have stopped it but a least they would have CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Yeah nam thumps north central jersey. It's all snow ttn north...preciep lacks north of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Yeah nam thumps north central jersey. It's all snow ttn north...preciep lacks north of 78Sounds good for us alsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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