weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How's the mighty euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How's the mighty euro I'll post my WXbell maps when they load... Wxbell has been superrrrr slow lately, more so than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How's the mighty euro Exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Euro looks pretty good. Warm layer at 925mb goes all the way to NW NJ, that's why SV maps show little or no accumulation within 50 miles of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 That warm layer at 925mb is going to hurt, I didn't see it until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It's not terribly warm, but it's there. Probably gets to +1C or +2C briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Euro looks pretty good. Warm layer at 925mb goes all the way to NW NJ, that's why SV maps show little or no accumulation within 50 miles of NYC. The 925 line doesn't get to NYC until hour 60. Almost nothing falls after hour 60. The SV maps show little accumulation because they ALWAYS do for the coast during marginal situations. Nothing new. They showed 1"-2" March 5th as well and LGA/NYC jack-potted with 6"-10". This is a 3"-6"+ event almost locked and loaded. This isn't a "north and west" type of storm. Everyone will see similar accumulations. North and West will see more snow on pavement and roads but NYC/LI and boroughs will see similar to maybe more (more QPF) on grass and cold surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Euro looks pretty good. Warm layer at 925mb goes all the way to NW NJ, that's why SV maps show little or no accumulation within 50 miles of NYC. Unfortunately the Euro is often correct at sniffing out those warm tongues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Unfortunately the Euro is often correct at sniffing out those warm tongues There is no warm tongue on the Euro until the storm is over. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 some early spring winter snowstorms since 1956... date..... 3/20-21/1958.....11.8"...coldest temp was 32...wet snow with some mixing... 3/20/1965.............1.7"...3" in Brooklyn...coldest temp was 21...all snow...powder 3/21-22/1964.......4.9"...coldest temp was 32...wet snow started as rain 3/21-22/1967.......9.8"...coldest temp was 28...started as wet snow... 3/22/1998.............5.0"...2" on Staten island... 3/22/1992.............3.2" 3/28-29/1984.......3.3"...coldest temp was 33...wet snow with mixing... 3/28-29/1996.......4.1"...mix at the start to rain ends as snow... 3/29/1970.............4.0"...coldest temp was 21...started as rain... 3/29/1974.............3.2"...started as rain... 4/4/1957...............2.5"...coldest temp was 33...mixing and turning to rain... 4/6/1982...............9.6"...coldest temp was 21...near blizzard... 4/7/2003...............4.0"...7" S.I....coldest temp was 30...all snow... 4/8/1956...............4.2"...coldest temp was 33...wet snow started as rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 There is no warm tongue on the Euro until the storm is over. Chill. Insanity KNYC 850 - 2 925 -2 BL 32 .5 falls . .1 falls after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Could we play have one person do the pbp please? There is a warm tongue, there isn't a warm tongue lol. Is it even showing any accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The 925 line doesn't get to NYC until hour 60. Almost nothing falls after hour 60. The SV maps show little accumulation because they ALWAYS do for the coast during marginal situations. Nothing new. They showed 1"-2" March 5th as well and LGA/NYC jack-potted with 6"-10". This is a 3"-6"+ event almost locked and loaded. This isn't a "north and west" type of storm. Everyone will see similar accumulations. North and West will see more snow on pavement and roads but NYC/LI and boroughs will see similar to maybe more (more QPF) on grass and cold surfaces. I wouldn't be so confident. Allot more has to go right this time of year. Multiple factors can easily change this to a white rain in the city and immediate coast. Places like the hills of the north shore of the island and anywhere north and west of the immediate city heat island are good to go. I'm not ready to say cpk is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Could we play have one person do the pbp please? There is a warm tongue, there isn't a warm tongue lol. Is it even showing any accumulations? There is no warm tongue on the euro until after hour 60, when almost nothing falls. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I wouldn't be so confident. Allot more has to go right this time of year. Multiple factors can easily change this to a white rain in the city and immediate coast. Places like the hills of the north shore of the island and anywhere north and west of the immediate city heat island are good to go. I'm not ready to say cpk is a lock Disagree. City and parts of the borough will see plenty of accumulations on grass and colder surfaces. I doubt it sticks to the pavement in the immediate city though. But the snowfall measurements will be similar to most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The 925 line doesn't get to NYC until hour 60. Almost nothing falls after hour 60. The SV maps show little accumulation because they ALWAYS do for the coast during marginal situations. Nothing new. They showed 1"-2" March 5th as well and LGA/NYC jack-potted with 6"-10". This is a 3"-6"+ event almost locked and loaded. This isn't a "north and west" type of storm. Everyone will see similar accumulations. North and West will see more snow on pavement and roads but NYC/LI and boroughs will see similar to maybe more (more QPF) on grass and cold surfaces. Who said anything about this being a north and west only event? I'm not even going to be in the area for this one. 3:30PM flight out of JFK on Friday. Will hopefully get out just in time. I have no skins in this game. It's just an observation that I had regarding the warm layer, and without a sounding it's impossible to confirm exactly where and when it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I always have to laugh when I see posts saying "3-6" locked and loaded" when the situation is still changing. I agree that there may be a good amount of snow but you can't just ignore the mid or low level 0c lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Disagree. City and parts of the borough will see plenty of accumulations on grass and colder surfaces. I doubt it sticks to the pavement in the immediate city though. But the snowfall measurements will be similar to most areas. NYC heat island has been on fire lately with cpk 15 or more above surrounding areas! If 35 vs 33 is the difference between white rain and several inches watch out cpk. It's that time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Here's the euro weenie map, never thought I'd be on the lower end of March accumulations all the way up here compared to nyc and surrounding areas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I always have to laugh when I see posts saying "3-6" locked and loaded" when the situation is still changing. I agree that there may be a good amount of snow but you can't just ignore the mid or low level 0c lines. Most people are hopeful there is no more snow so they would appreciate warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC heat island has been on fire lately with cpk 15 or more above surrounding areas! If 35 vs 33 is the difference between white rain and several inches watch out cpk. It's that time of year Good thing I dont live in Times Square. The outer boroughs will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Most people are hopeful there is no more snow so they would appreciate warm layers. I'm one of those people, although it would be a nice way to end winter, I built a new house and was suppose to have my driveway poured and walkways cemented this coming week, along with the fact my entire yard isn't graded or seeded so it's a mud disaster lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I always have to laugh when I see posts saying "3-6" locked and loaded" when the situation is still changing. I agree that there may be a good amount of snow but you can't just ignore the mid or low level 0c lines. Yeah Jim. Because I have been hyping and make things up. I am very confident in a 3"-6+ event for all of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 For late March in the city, you almost have to go with low confidence of > 1" until there is 1" on the ground and it's still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Looking at all the latest 12z model suites, this looks like a solid 4-6 inches for NYC metro! Simple as that. It'll be a nice storm and ratios shouldn't be worse than 8:1-10:1 It'll be snowing quite hard for a while and I think it'll be an all snow event for us. Giving the timing of the day is a bit tricky with how much accumulations stick to the road but grassy and bridges should accumulate enough snow to be a plow able snow event. Enjoy it fellas and btw I just looked at the CMC omg! It shows close to 20 inches by next Wednesday for our area! Incredible dynamic system next Tuesday! Let's hope it comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Good thing I dont live in Times Square. The outer boroughs will do fine. Your right. If anyone is going to do well it's you up in NE queens with a little elevation and removed from the heat island. I just don't see how cpk sees more then white rain. The beast of a heat island has been nuts lately. With no real CAA surface temps will still be torched in the park and especially mid town. It's going to have to puke 2" or more hours rates to cool the column all the way to the surface in manhattan. Up at Columbia where I work, 150' up and miles north maybe a shot at a couple inches. I think the gradient is that tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NWS has upped totals around here. This region they were only showing an inch or two and now its 3-4 inches.. Thinking NYC sees 2-4 inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 StormTotalSnowRange.png NWS has upped totals around here. This region they were only showing an inch or two and now its 3-4 inches.. Thinking NYC sees 2-4 inches.. This is honestly a good map. I agree with it a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Gonna be in the battle zone once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Upton and Albany late to the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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