TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC is at or below freezing the entire time on the GFS and who cares. Late March storms usually snow at 32-34 degrees and the accumulations occur under heavy banding. I'm not arguing that it can snow at 34F, but I don't know what the people saying "colder for the area" and "3-6 on the GFS" are seeing that I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm not arguing that it can snow at 34F, but I don't know what the people saying "colder for the area" and "3-6 on the GFS" are seeing that I am not. At the warmest that shows about 32F or so for most of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm not arguing that it can snow at 34F, but I don't know what the people saying "colder for the area" and "3-6 on the GFS" are seeing that I am not. see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS now agrees with the nam and euro.Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 why are you showing surface temps for 18z friday when the bulk of qpf is after that and past the warmest part of the day? Surface temps drop after 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm not arguing that it can snow at 34F, but I don't know what the people saying "colder for the area" and "3-6 on the GFS" are seeing that I am not. 3-6" posts are nothing, there are some calling for 6-10 inches on social media right now for the area lol. The hype starts yet again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 KNYC sounding at 54 hours... That's snow, as the heavy precip moves in... The 60 hrs is even colder. Whether or not it's right IDK... but that's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 we'll easily wet bulb below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The GFS and NAM are 32/17 and 31/22 at NYC at 18z, assuming there will be cloud cover early in the morning I'm not sure we will even get that warm during the day but it should wetbulb down as was previously said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 why are you showing surface temps for 18z friday when the bulk of qpf is after that and past the warmest part of the day? Surface temps drop after 18z Because hour 57 isn't available on TT. But it is on eWall, and surface T is still above 32F in NYC, and for you in Edison it's 35 at 4pm according to the GFS. I think there's a 4 hour period of solid accumulating snow from 4 to 8pm, but we're going to waste some beforehand, particularly if the onset is delayed at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 cmc is pretty nice for nyc and northern nj…. 850's get to ttn-middlesex county..southern burbs go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The NAM , UKMET, EURO and GEM are all colder than the GFS . Be careful not to lean on the only 1 warmer solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 cmc is pretty nice for nyc and northern nj…. 850's get to ttn-middlesex county..southern burbs go to rain I feel like this could be the kind of storm where my location is rain/snow with little to no accumulation while 20 miles north they get 4-6" with more on elevated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I-80 is the jackpot on the cmc into nyc... pretty warm south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 look at the low level dry air on the soundings. we won't waste a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I-80 is the jackpot on the cmc into nyc... pretty warm south of there How much QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How much QPF? .50+ for nyc and northern nj. '' south of ewr is a lot of snow/rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 UKMET is 14mm snow, surface looks about 1C but it usually runs warm on 2M temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Day 6 GEM wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Day 6 GEM wow. Looks like a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 .50+ for nyc and northern nj. '' south of ewr is a lot of snow/rain mix GGEM precip loop shows central jersey staying mostly snow and pretty heavy. Looks like a pretty good hit to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We'll obviously have to rely on wet bulbing and decent rates for those south of 80/78 as things look quite marginal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nothing looks marginal on the Euro NAM GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Paul that map doesn't even make sense if 10:1 was true. The GGEM reads low thirties in southern NJ at dawn, and mid thirties by afternoon, but still manages to accumulate 3-4" south of 195? There's plenty of evidence for a good snow for NYC and surrounding but that map is bunk IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It can snow with surface temps in the mid thirties. And if its heavy enough it will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The trend right now is colder...we may not be done with the southern extent of the frozen on the models yet with 48 hours to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Paul that map doesn't even make sense if 10:1 was true. The GGEM reads low thirties in southern NJ at dawn, and mid thirties by afternoon, but still manages to accumulate 3-4" south of 195? There's plenty of evidence for a good snow for NYC and surrounding but that map is bunk IMO It's because the snowfall rates are so heavy. Check the GGEM loop, you can see the dark blue which is heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Paul that map doesn't even make sense if 10:1 was true. The GGEM reads low thirties in southern NJ at dawn, and mid thirties by afternoon, but still manages to accumulate 3-4" south of 195? There's plenty of evidence for a good snow for NYC and surrounding but that map is bunk IMO S of Monmouth that 10 to 1 is wrong , Around 78 - 80 KNYC LI and points N and W its fine . You are likely to see 4 plus in those areas , def just outside the city itself. 850s -2 BL close to 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We were all ready to jump off a cliff before then. What a comeback. This storm could pad the totals nicely. For my area, BDR could go over 60 inches YTD with this storm if it works out. LGA needs a 1/2 inch to go over 50. Delayed but not denied on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 N of that line at 850 on the GEM that map works . The NAM and Euro are colder and the trend has been colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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