PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 0z Euro at KNYC is 32 , cooler than it`s 33 from 12z yesterday Main roads could stay wet at KNYC , but just oustide the city this is a different story Colder surfaces are in line for close to 6 inches in spots just outside the city . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Any similarities to April 03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 what's the start time on this one? Hopefully we can avoid the 9am to 3pm period which has the strongest sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Maybe the melting ice is keeping the coast hugging water cold. CI SST was as low as 30degs in Feb with the ice nearby. It is still in low 30's. Salt water can go down to 28degs. JAMSTEC shows widespread below normal SST's off coast for the next several months. I don't get it either. Thanks. Can you link me to the JAMSTEC product you are referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Any similarities to April 03? In April 82 , temps were in the mid and upper 20`s . This is getting colder and not far away from that . Euro is .6 - .8 UKMET is .5- .8 NAM is .5 - .8 This has gotten wet and colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 what's the start time on this one? Hopefully we can avoid the 9am to 3pm period which has the strongest sun That's the bulk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I think the GFS and NAM have trended better at the surface primarily because they've brought the jetstreak axis south by 100-150 miles over the last four runs. The surface low, fairly consistently projected to be east of Virginia is now more aligned with the best quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 no pay site maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 If I recall correctly, we had 1" in the Edison area and there was 12-18" at 300+ feet in elevation along the Watchung ridges and NW of there. Not 100% sure it was this storm, but there was a storm with those outcomes about 15-20 years ago... April 1997...not March 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 no pay site mapsNo WeatherBELL images at all or just the paid models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Euro is .6 - .8 UKMET is .5- .8 NAM is .5 - .8 This has gotten wet and colder . Beautiful STJ exit region dynamics to work with here. Our epic back-loaded El Nino winter continues unabated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Gfs is a thump 3-6 real cold for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS starting to cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 No WeatherBELL images at all or just the paid models? if you have to pay a fee to see the map you can't post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 When doesnt the GFS cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 if you have to pay a fee to see the map you can't post it I'm on mobile but does this remind you of April 03? March 04? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Looks like the Euro is back, over the last 3 weeks. It has really schooled the American guidance on the last 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm on mobile but does this remind you of April 03? March 04? This reminds me of March 5th, 2015. Don't need to go that far back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS actually going to be same or wetter than NAM with 0.5LE or more...great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Beautiful STJ exit region dynamics to work with here. Our epic back-loaded El Nino winter continues unabated. namUS_250_spd_057.gif What an incredible back end stretch starting Feb 1 lasting through March 30 . With only a 7 day break . Think once to April 1 or 2 , the trough will back west and it will end for us . Great 8 week period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Looks like the Euro is back, over the last 3 weeks. It has really schooled the American guidance on the last 3 storms. Southern stream interactions are the Euro's meat and potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 What an Incredible back end stretch starting Feb 1 thru March 30 . With only a 7 day break . Think once to April 1 or 2 , the trough will back west and it will end for us . Great 8 week period Exactly, from January 23rd on has been the stuff that dreams are made of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Exactly, from January 23rd on has been the stuff that dreams are made of. We were all ready to jump off a cliff before then. What a comeback. This storm could pad the totals nicely. For my area, BDR could go over 60 inches YTD with this storm if it works out. LGA needs a 1/2 inch to go over 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It looks like the GFS snows the the heaviest after 3pm friday, which would somewhat limit our sun angle problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It looks like the GFS snows the the heaviest after 3pm friday, which would somewhat limit our sun angle problem Yeah the delay will help with accumulations on the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Thanks. Can you link me to the JAMSTEC product you are referring to? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I must be in the twilight zone. The 12z GFS brings the surface above freezing for most of NJ and NYC at hr 51 and 54. It's markedly warmer than 6z to my eyes. The later onset allows for more surface warming, and by the time we get to lower sun angle later in the day, 850s above 0c are on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I must be in the twilight zone. The 12z GFS brings the surface above freezing for most of NJ and NYC at hr 51 and 54. It's markedly warmer than 6z to my eyes. The later onset allows for more surface warming, and by the time we get to lower sun angle later in the day, 850s above 0c are on the doorstep. NYC is at or below freezing the entire time on the GFS and who cares. Late March storms usually snow at 32-34 degrees and the accumulations occur under heavy banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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