PB GFI Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Clearing 3 inches in NYC after March 20th would be a significant late season snowfall event which hasn't happened since 1996. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-FE0E2916-3517-4B58-837B-1B122598B0E5.pdf Both the UKMET and EURO are cold and wet enough to support that at the park . ( Highways and main roads stay wet but this is still a great event for late March . ) I think those only expecting 1 to 2 inches will be pleasantly surprised . Then again the same crew said they were sure winter was over , that no more snow would accumulate this March , that this would end up close to 50 degrees and then ultimately this was going to go S and E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Both the UKMET and EURO are cold and wet enough to support that at the park . ( Highways and main roads stay wet but this is still a great event for late March . ) I think those only expecting 1 to 2 inches will be pleasantly surprised . Then again the same crew said they were sure winter was over , that no more snow would accumulate this March , that this would end up close to 50 degrees and then ultimately this was going to go S and E . Those potential amounts would let NYC move up several more notches on the top ten March snowiest list. 30.5.....1896 22.3.....1888 21.1.....1956 19.2.....1941 18.5.....1960 17.4.....1967 17.1.....1890 16.0.....1916 15.9.....1958 14.1.....2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 If the bulk of the snow happens late afternoon and night when sun angle isn't a problem then there will be no problem this giving us 3 plus inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nws has NYC/n nj in >60% of 2"+ and >30% of 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Euro prints out near 6 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Clearing 3 inches in NYC after March 20th would be a significant late season snowfall event which hasn't happened since 1996. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-FE0E2916-3517-4B58-837B-1B122598B0E5.pdf NYC had 5" on 3/22/98. I remember because the season had only 0.5" up to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC had 5" on 3/22/98. I remember because the season had only 0.5" up to that point. You are correct. I didn't really remember that one since Long Beach looks like it was in the 2-3 inch range. It was one of those ridiculously mild winters where I would get plenty of bike rides and walks in after work on the boardwalk. That winter would have been epic if we had been cold with the fire hose STJ. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-805CB4DC-D8E1-4830-B3BB-3B55EBC4FEBE.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC had 5" on 3/22/98. I remember because the season had only 0.5" up to that point. Only winter where NYC saw more snow in astronomical spring than astronomical winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 You are correct. I didn't really remember that one since Long Beach looks like it was in the 2-3 inch range. It was one of those ridiculously mild winters where I would get plenty of bike rides and walks in after work on the boardwalk. That winter would have been epic if we had been cold with the fire hose STJ. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-805CB4DC-D8E1-4830-B3BB-3B55EBC4FEBE.pdf Crappy winter, but at least my wedding on 2/16/98 wasn't impacted by snow. Only winter where NYC saw more snow in astronomical spring than astronomical winter. It didn't even count. Melted by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Both the UKMET and EURO are cold and wet enough to support that at the park . ( Highways and main roads stay wet but this is still a great event for late March . ) I think those only expecting 1 to 2 inches will be pleasantly surprised . Then again the same crew said they were sure winter was over , that no more snow would accumulate this March , that this would end up close to 50 degrees and then ultimately this was going to go S and E . The Euro has been quite consistent. Things still appear to be on reasonable course for a possible 3" or greater snowfall in and around the City, as the forecast pattern is little changed from previous days. Model differences are also beginning to narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 9z SREF Plumes EWR - 3.08" LGA - 2.95" HPN - 2.67" JFK - 3.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC had 5" on 3/22/98. I remember because the season had only 0.5" up to that point. only 2" on Staten Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC had 5" on 3/22/98. I remember because the season had only 0.5" up to that point. ruined the record for futility. Had about 5 inches of slop here that melted by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 only 2" on Staten Island... If I recall correctly, we had 1" in the Edison area and there was 12-18" at 300+ feet in elevation along the Watchung ridges and NW of there. Not 100% sure it was this storm, but there was a storm with those outcomes about 15-20 years ago... Snow88 - there's no point in reporting a 2nd decimal place, let alone the first one for a forecast whose accuracy is +/- at least 50%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC had 5" on 3/22/98. I remember because the season had only 0.5" up to that point. i remember that year it was such a mild winter with mostly rainstorms. It was a strong El Niño winter which contributed to a mild winter. I was so happy we had gotten that 5 inches I ended up taking off from school just to walk around in the snow. I remember we weren't forecasted to get any snow. The previous day was a icy day with highs mostly in the low 30's than the overnight got hit with a surprise snowstorm. It was great. Hopefully we get something to that extent. That was some heavy wet snow but it came in during dawn and ended by 8-9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 1997-98 had a few light coatings of slush and sleet before March on Staten Island...snow stats from Doncat's Travis weather station...I remember some snow mixed with rain in December 97... ...............Oct..Nov....Dec....Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr...Total 1997-98....0.....0.1....2.3....1.5.....T......1.8.....0......5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nam is coming in great for Philly and NYC. Looks similiar to the Euro. Surface temps in the mid to upper 20s for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Wow, NAM is cold and wet, about 0.5" LE for the area...prob verbatim a nice 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nam is coming in great for Philly and NYC. Looks similiar to the Euro. Surface temps in the mid to upper 20s for the area. I'd be willing to put out a forecast for 2-4" of snow for NYC/LI based on the convergence of the American models towards the consistent Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'd be willing to put out a forecast for 2-4" of snow for NYC/LI based on the convergence of the American models towards the consistent Euro. That's a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Verbatim 4-6" NJ special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Verbatim 4-6" NJ special... wonder if it trends further north over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It's a weak system this time of year that you wouldn't think could deliver more than an inch of slop if that. But thus far every time the AO dropped there was some kind of snow event so this fits that theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 That's a good call right now. Too simple a mechanism for calculating snow amounts during the off season. 2mTemps. in southern NJ are above freezing aren't they during the heaviest precip., while it is still daylight to boot. Measured on a 500 foot hilly region this could be right. Snow in the air but not on ground in southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Too simple a mechanism for calculating snow amounts during the off season. 2mTemps. in southern NJ are above freezing aren't they during the heaviest precip., while it is still daylight to boot. Measured on a 500 foot hilly region this could be right. Snow in the air but not on ground in southern NJ. Mid to upper 20s from Central Jersey northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Question- The bouy reports off the coast of NJ and LI are reading mid to upper 30's. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ The SST anomaly chart shows we are +3 to +5 off the US east coast. But our average water temp is not low 30's, right? So what's going on here? http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomw.3.16.2015.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Mid to upper 20s from Central Jersey northward. But that is only on the NAM at 63hours. The washboard lady knows more than the NAM at this time frame. No other output even guarantees NYC stays below 32deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 But that is only on the NAM at 63hours. The washboard lady knows more than the NAM at this time frame. No other output even guarantees NYC stays below 32deg. But you were discussing the NAM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Question- The bouy reports off the coast of NJ and LI are reading mid to upper 30's. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ The SST anomaly chart shows we are +3 to +5 off the US east coast. But our average water temp is not low 30's, right? So what's going on here? http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomw.3.16.2015.gif Maybe the melting ice is keeping the coast hugging water cold. CI SST was as low as 30degs in Feb with the ice nearby. It is still in low 30's. Salt water can go down to 28degs. JAMSTEC shows widespread below normal SST's off coast for the next several months. I don't get it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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