UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 GFS. Ulster says this reads 2"-4": My call is 2-4" from 84 to southern rockland, southern rockland to Central Jersey including LI, 3-6 with a few Lollys of 4-7" mostly in Central Jersey, 1-2" anyone South of there, and 1-2" for anyone north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Looks like gfs ticked down on qpf for sne, it has every six hour run for two days now and its added up to quite a lot. NYC still looks fine for 3-5" though. Numbers should come down for CT I don't think we deserve an advisory right now and I felt the opposite on the anafront situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Whomever created those maps with the shading of the same color should be tarred and feathered. Every inch should be a new color. They are impossible to read without zooming. So stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Anthony gimme a break, you know damn well how wrong he was to complain about me saying the rgem was 2-4" when it showed 3.2"... I thought at first it was 2-4 but when I looked closer, I saw the light pink shading. 3-5 is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Whomever created those maps with the shading of the same color should be tarred and feathered. Every inch should be a new color. They are impossible to read without zooming. So stupid. Yea it's awful. Have to count the shades to get an idea . By the way why are people fighting over an inch of snow lol. And that Gfs map seems way over done for north jersey IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I thought at first it was 2-4 but when I looked closer, I saw the light pink shading. 3-5 is right.It's 9mm Anthony's stop looking at the "pretty maps" as everyone likes to say to me. Lol. Printout says 9mm that's .35 liquidIs this really that hard to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's crazy just thinking how snowy tomorrow will be. I can't wait to be honest with you. I would love for Tuesday's system to work out. Let's see what the latest models tell us. As for tomorrow I just hope we don't lose any snow to taint. Hopefully our temps radiate tonight so we can really start below freezing when the precipitation moves in during midday. It'll be a nice event. It'll look nice but roads should be mostly clear unless you get the heavy stuff than you know it'll accumulate. Current temperature in Bx/Yo border 33.8 degrees; relative humidity 19% (very dry) Dropped over a degree in an hour! Hoping for a low of 27. Radiation will work wonders for us tonight which should secure "the no taint solution". Edit: I predict 5 inches of snow for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Anyway, I'm pulling for the GFS/ euro, I would like to break 3" however unlikely that is.... It's nice to see GFS stay as wet run after run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Yea it's awful. Have to count the shades to get an idea . By the way why are people fighting over an inch of snow lol. And that Gfs map seems way over done for north jersey IMO I've noticed that since the GFS upgrade, certain areas in northern NJ have what seems to be a permanent bullseye over them. Areas such as West Milford down through Lake Hopatcong (elevations generally over 1,200') seem to be a bit overdone. Though they definitely do see more snow at times due to their elevation, it seems to automatically multiply the snow amounts by 1.5 over those areas, regardless of storm specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I've noticed that since the GFS upgrade, certain areas in northern NJ have what seems to be a permanent bullseye over them. Areas such as West Milford down through Lake Hopatcong (elevations generally over 1,200') seem to be a bit overdone. Though they definitely do see more snow at times due to their elevation, it seems to automatically multiply the snow amounts by 1.5 over those areas, regardless of storm specifics It usually jumps the Hudson and bullseyes westchester too a lot I've noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I've noticed that since the GFS upgrade, certain areas in northern NJ have what seems to be a permanent bullseye over them. Areas such as West Milford down through Lake Hopatcong (elevations generally over 1,200') seem to be a bit overdone. Though they definitely do see more snow at times due to their elevation, it seems to automatically multiply the snow amounts by 1.5 over those areas, regardless of storm specifics My town borders west milford . Those 1200 feet ridges are not the norm though . Most areas fall in the 500-800 range . Just weird like you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'm going with 3-5" for NYC, the 5" is for southern areas mainly. Same for Long Island, 3" on the east end and 4-5" most other places. Places south of I-78 could see 6 or 7", especially inland Monmouth/Ocean/Mercer. 1-3" most areas north of the city, less than an inch from I-84 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 How's the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's great being in the pacific time zone getting the models so early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's great being in the pacific time zone getting the models so early I hope you haven't left the area! Your contributions in this and the New England thread are enormous and I love the fact you're not a model hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 How's the euro?identical to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I hope you haven't left the area! Your contributions in this and the New England thread are enormous and I love the fact you're not a model hugger. No just in Las Vegas til Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 identical to 12z It was technically a little drier than prior run across peak qpf region phl to nyc, Since everyone spent the night fighting over a half an inch of snow on the rgem, I figured I would make that noted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Rap top Hrrrr bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 NAM has finally caught up to other guidance, general 3-6 for most, exception being North of 84 where it's 1-3/2-4" type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 12k top 4k bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Your WRF 4k runs from last night if anyone's interest, seems on par, nothing crazy Tops NMM Bottoms ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 A very large dewpoint miss at NYC now. The 6z MOS had NYC at a 23 dewpoint while the actual is still 3. Temps should fall below freezing once the steadier snow arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 A very large dewpoint miss at NYC now. The 6z MOS had NYC at a 23 dewpoint while the actual is still 3. Temps should fall below freezing once the steadier snow arrives. 28-31 will be a good temp range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Thanks Ulster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 28-31 will be a good temp range Yeah, the temps may tick up a bit more before the snow arrives but evap cooling will bring the readings back near freezing or a bit lower once the steadier snow arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Thanks Ulster Np dude, enjoy should be good down there for sure, ill be radar watching all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Seems about right. Wouldn't be surprised if that 4 to 6 comes down into nyc and li Um the 4-6" area is already over Long Island. I don't see us getting 6 but I think a solid 3-4" is doable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Um the 4-6" area is already over Long Island. I don't see us getting 6 but I think a solid 3-4" is doable right now. It wasn't when he posted that over 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Interesting to see the gradients across Mercer and Middlesex, with 2-3" in the SE sections of each county, then 3-4" in the central portions and 4-6" in the NW sections. NWS also updated their discussion a few minutes ago, talking about it being a bit snowier/colder and even mentioning power outages for areas that receive 6" or more of heavy wet snow (possible in some spots, especially in Central Jersey). Still don't expect much accumulations on major roads, during midday, but after about 4-5 pm as the sun gets lower in the sky and snowfall rates exceed melting rates, could see some slush highways, just in time for the Friday pm rush. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...930 AM ESTF SENT EARLIER AROUND 840 AM EDT AND AN SPS FOR THEREGION BORDERING OUR SOUTHERN WXA (MD/DE) POSTING NOW WHERE WEWILL SEE STRETCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUM THIS MORNING.OTRW HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED SNOW LONGERIN THE WX GRIDS AND TAKEN ALL MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF N CENTRAL NJTHIS AFTN.WXA CONTINUES AS POSTED THE LAST SEVERAL SHIFTS.A SMALL CONCERN: IF WE DEVELOP A STRIPE OF 6 INCH WET SNOW SE PATHROUGH CENTRAL NJ, WE WOULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES. I TEND TO USE6 INCHES OF 32-33F SNOW AS MY DELIMITER FOR POWER PROBLEMS, DESPITEONLY 30-50 PCT OF THAT AMT ON PAVED SFCS`S.I MAY ADD "HEAVY" SNOW RATES TO THE FCST FOR THE REGION NEAR 1-78AND 30 MI EITHER SIDE IN THE 930 AM OR 1030 UPDATE.THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATEON PAVED SURFACES. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHERSNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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