UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Quick run comparison, top is 18z bottom is 00z at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Moderate snow still falling for nyc and long island at 00z sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Snow total maps don't really reflect the radar reflectivity on the 00z nam, with those returns for several hours at that time I don't see how it's only printing out 1-3 for NYC and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Moderate snow still falling for nyc and long island at 00z sat On the regular NAM? I see it as south still with barely .25" of precip into NYC. CT and LI are even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Snow total maps don't really reflect the radar reflectivity on the 00z nam, with those returns for several hours at that time I don't see how it's only printing out 1-3 for NYC and Long IslandThe QPF looks very light on my map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 On the regular NAM? I see it as south still with barely .25" of precip into NYC. CT and LI are even less. Yea I posted the comparison above, but the qpf doesn't reflect, heavier precip is def further north into nyc and LI than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Nam came north with heavy precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Nam came north with heavy precip... Oddly enough precip totals didn't really budge, hence my confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Weenie nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Snow total maps don't really reflect the radar reflectivity on the 00z nam, with those returns for several hours at that time I don't see how it's only printing out 1-3 for NYC and Long Island Boundary layer temps. Surface temps stay above freezing the entire event duration in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'm not the biggest fan of the NAM, but it's not north though.....just "noise" I would think 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Toss the NAM... ...and go with the 18z LAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'm not the biggest fan of the NAM, but it's not north though.....just "noise" I would think 00z ImageUploadedByTapatalk1426818091.345029.jpg 18z ImageUploadedByTapatalk1426818101.441378.jpg The low isnt North but the heavier precip at hr 21z is clearly North, doesn't make a difference In totals however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Hi res nam isn't much better, looks same as 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 NAM is probably overdoing the dry air and eating up too much of the snow. At some point though, the dry air will win out and cut down snow totals north of the city. There might be a period of Virgo before snow hits the ground unless it comes in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 euro and gfs combo are hard to beat. Nam has failed many times this winter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 NAM is probably overdoing the dry air and eating up too much of the snow. At some point though, the dry air will win out and cut down snow totals north of the city. There might be a period of Virgo before snow hits the ground unless it comes in like a wall. If there's any virga up here, we can kiss accumulations goodbye, we have about a 3-6 hr window up here've fire models have dry air shunting precip South and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pamela its good to know you have my back What's your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Im going 2-4 nyc to central jersey...4 for grass but tough to measure with constant melting...mt holly says snow will stick to all surfaces in morning to early afternoon but then only colder surfaces later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 What's your call?3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Im going 2-4 nyc to central jersey...4 for grass but tough to measure with constant melting...mt holly says snow will stick to all surfaces in morning to early afternoon but then only colder surfaces later My call is 2-4" from 84 to southern rockland, southern rockland to Central Jersey including LI, 3-6 with a few Lollys of 4-7" mostly in Central Jersey, 1-2" anyone South of there, and 1-2" for anyone north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'm calling for a high near 60 with sun to kick off the start of spring...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 HRRR is showing much warmer expected precip. The current run out to 16z shows nearly all rain all the way to northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 My call is 2-4" from 84 to southern rockland, southern rockland to Central Jersey including LI, 3-6 with a few Lollys of 4-7" mostly in Central Jersey, 1-2" anyone South of there, and 1-2" for anyone north of 84 I'm going to say that no one in or west of NYC sees 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 HRRR is showing much warmer expected precip. The current run out to 16z shows nearly all rain all the way to northern NJ. Give it an hour, that'll change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Although out of range, both rap and HRRR have precip shield much further north than nam... As someone that is only gonna see a couple inches regardless of what model verifys I can say the nam seems wrong imo, completely Un-biased opinion but, based off more than just the models including what we've seen as a seasonal trend, we have underestimated totals in and around the city and Jersey all year, myself included... City will see its 3-6" and if I'm wrong so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 3-7"I should clarify.. LI and NYC I'm expecting 3-7", with this including North Central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 RGEM looks better than the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 RGEM looks better than the Nam Rgem is 2-4 for most the city and surrounding areas, 4-6 with some 7" spots in central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 How is it compared to 18Z? I'm on my dumb phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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