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3/20-21 Potential Winter Storm


anthonyweather

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I predict your flight will be fine.  Visibility isn't an issue for IFR conditions and it won't be windy, which can delay things, but doesn't stop flights, usually - the key issue for airports for closure is runway condition and at around 32F with salt and March sunlight, the runways will be wet, barring 1"+ per hour rates, which aren't predicted for extended periods.  

 

 

I predict you are wrong.

LGA just had a serious accident during snow and all the airports will be extra cautious tomorrow.

Also, if we get he 1"-2" an hour rates (like the Euro, GFS, Ukmet have), it will easily stick to the roads and runway.

It was colder for that storm than this storm will be and the sun angle is greater now, plus, this isn't currently predicted to deliver the precip rates we got with that storm - I agree the airports might be more cautious tomorrow, but if the runways are just wet, then there's no issue - they were snow covered at LGA.  Also, it's as if you didn't even read my post, given your comments about rates - I said "...barring 1"+ per hour rates..." since good rates will definitely overcome melting.  Simple equation, really.  Accumulation rate = snowfall rate - melting rate.  And once there is snow on paved surfaces, that melting rate goes way down, as snow falling on a high albedo surface (snow) that also happens to be 32F or colder (it's frozen, duh) will have a very low melting rate.  

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18z GFS and 12z Euro are now neary identical.

Good model consensus for a widespread 3"-6".

I'm not gonna throw in the towel yet but it's looking like you have a much better chance of your forecast verifying then me. Temps look good for accumulations pretty much everywhere now. I'm not talking about mid town as that's not where the NYC ob is taken. When the gfs and euro are in this good of an agreement I think you can take it to the bank
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 18z gfs is a bit colder for coastal nj. I think nws maybe a bit low with there 1-3" call for monmouth cty. Id go with 2-5" county wide with a possible mix or change to rain at the end. looks like a descent thumping. going to be tough accumalating on the roads tho as most of it will be occurring during the day

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