PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Interesting.. Globals vs short range Do not like having the GEM and RGEM against me . Humped them all year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Do not like having the GEM and RGEM against me . Humped them all year .Yes this is a very tricky set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 That solution would be early dismissals for schools in the suburbs It has to be cranking bad by 10 am. After that you are there for the duration esp if lunches have been prepared. So Not likely from what I see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 having the RGEM against us is a big red flag...it's trended south last few runs and need to see that stop on the next run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It has to be cranking bad by 10 am. After that you are there for the duration esp if lunches have been prepared. So Not likely from what I see here. some schools call an early D based on the forecast and not necessarily what's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think the Euro has done fairly well as of late. The 12Z will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 some schools call an early D based on the forecast and not necessarily what's falling. Yes that is true in some cases: Feb 2013 for example, and also Feb 26 2010. But a small March storm at this time of the year where the forecast is not for that much, and slushy as well, uh-uh. March 2013 5 inches fell and we watched it snow all day from my HS office. Some district do not do early dismissal at all. Elizabeth NJ and many urban schools are like that. Trends I'm seeing here lead me to believe the storm will be nice to look at but not have a big impact. It might not even be nice to look at.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think the Euro has done fairly well as of late. The 12Z will be crucial.And now we await it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think the Euro has done fairly well as of late. The 12Z will be crucial. The Euro has probably been the steadiest model so far with its forecasts for this. It does great on Southern stream disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The stakes are pretty high for the northern suburbs on this and maybe the city/LI-if the NAM/RGEM are right and the northern edge of the good snow is crushed south, it will both be harder to accumulate with light snow and less QPF. Obviously the GFS would be a thump 4-7" everywhere. The NAM by itself can be written of but the RGEM also restricting the northern end of the snow is a concern. The Euro will be important and then later runs to see if they also restrict the northern extent of the precip. Right now I'd go with 2-5" around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I would rather have the gfs and euro on my side than the nam and the overrated rgem. The nam always seems to flip flop towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .10 line to NYC at 18z on 12z Euro with 33 degrees and snowing. Temps dewpoint down near 31-32 as the snow picks up after 18z. 850 Zero south for entire event all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .10 line to NYC at 18z on 12z Euro with 33 degrees and snowing. looks almost identical to ooz run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 12z Euro is identical to the 0z run except it's a bit colder around NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 12z Euro is identical to the 0z run except it's a bit colder around NYC/LI.4-6 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 3-6 on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 4-6 inches? I would be conservative and say 3"-6" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .50+ on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This Euro run is the 1st time it shows the 32 degree line south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .50+ on the euroAny shift south at all with this line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 12z Euro is identical to the 0z run except it's a bit colder around NYC/LI. Yes. The Euro has really really been consistent with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .50+ on the euro This seems consistent with what you and others have been reporting this storm would turn out like. Sound like a 3-6 wet snow that accumulates somewhat on side roads, but not on the major roads. What do you have for a total so far in Edison this year? Would this one get us to 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This Euro run is the 1st time it shows the 32 degree line south of NYC. Sweet!! 6" in Times Square!!! Just stirring the pot. But if temps really are decently below 32 even NYC will see decent accumulations and I'll eat that. I'm sticking to my the park sees 50% less then areas 20 miles west north and east. Current thinking is 2" in the park 4" in said spots. And just to clarify the other NYC stations are less then 20 miles and do not count. I really think I'm gonna nail this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Euro Hour 36 KNYC 850 -2 925 - 2 BL 30 .6 LI Same mid level BL 31 onto LONG ISLAND .6 MC 850`s -2 925 -1 BL 32 .8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This seems consistent with what you and others have been reporting this storm would turn out like. Sound like a 3-6 wet snow that accumulates somewhat on side roads, but not on the major roads. What do you have for a total so far in Edison this year? Would this one get us to 50? The temperatures drop under freezing at NYC as the snow picks up since the temps dewpoint down. Anyone notice the current 0 dewpoint at NYC. CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 38 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Weenie map 12z euro Looks like a 1-3 tips event in most concesnsus North of 84, def a nyc South special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Honestly, even with a RGEM/NAM compromise with the globals, still looking at 2-4/3-5" in and around the Metro area. The Upton map looks pretty accurate with 2-4." Hopefully the short-term models come around more north to instill consensus confidence. BUT the Euro's consistency is confidence in itself. Just has held serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Euro Hour 36 KNYC 850 -2 925 - 2 BL 30 .6 LI Same mid level BL 31 onto LONG ISLAND .6 MC 850`s -2 925 -1 BL 32 .8 wow nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Weenie map 12z euro Looks like a 1-3 tips event in most concesnsus North of 84, def a nyc South special Nice look. Reminds me a little of March 92, where we had two snows at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 6"+ from Rt.78 / NYC south...not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.