ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I know that, but he said nam showed 4-6... Nam is the dry outlier for sure aka worst case NAM is 2"-4" for the NYC/LI metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Every model has 2-4/3-6 for nyc. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 NAM March 4th - 33 hours out . While every model was 6 plus , ( So many jumped on this pig ) . 6 to 10 fell around the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Mixing issues on the 12z NAM at LGA 150320/1700Z 29 13006KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 90| 0| 10150320/1800Z 30 10006KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 81| 0| 19----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150320/1900Z 31 09004KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 81| 0| 19150320/2000Z 32 06005KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 84| 0| 16150320/2100Z 33 05006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 88| 0| 12150320/2200Z 34 05007KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0150320/2300Z 35 05009KT 31.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0150321/0000Z 36 05009KT 30.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150321/0100Z 37 06009KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0150321/0200Z 38 06008KT 30.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 63| 37| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 A few quotes 30 hours out March 4 Same people , same awful mode hugging . I hid the names but can be found in the 4- 5 thread . . BTW 6 to 10 fell Per the nam most people are no where near 6 inches and many are 2 -3 tops. even parts of central and south jersey. Seems as though this becoming a non event for NENJ. Correct and hopefully this is just the nam being the nam. It was a terrible run all around This looks like 2-3 for nyc and 1-2 north of the city imo 3 yes, 6? Very Seriously doubt it This looks like 3 to 5 , not the 1 to 2 on the NAM . ( Once again this will correct ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 A few quotes 30 hours out March 4 Same people , same awful mode hugging . I hid the names but can be found in the 4- 5 thread . . BTW 6 to 10 fell Per the nam most people are no where near 6 inches and many are 2 -3 tops. even parts of central and south jersey. Seems as though this becoming a non event for NENJ. Correct and hopefully this is just the nam being the nam. It was a terrible run all around This looks like 2-3 for nyc and 1-2 north of the city imo 3 yes, 6? Very Seriously doubt it This looks like 3 to 5 , not the 1 to 2 on the NAM . ( Once again this will correct ) Not sure why people rely on the NAM when it has such a poor track record compared to the Euro and GFS beyond day 1. Its real value is picking out 6-12 hr trends on the same day of the storm. Here are the precip scores from the HPC. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not sure why people rely on the NAM when it has such a poor track record compared to the Euro and GFS beyond day 1. Here are the precip scores from the HPC. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml 509ge3036.gif Would love to see a skill score thread created for this place . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 My snow map for tomorrow I've been 5 posted so I can't reply on here but enjoy the snow guys, this one is for pazzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not sure why people rely on the NAM when it has such a poor track record compared to the Euro and GFS beyond day 1. It's real value is picking out 6-12 hr trends on the same day of the storm. Here are the precip scores from the HPC. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml 509ge3036.gif I think it is because of the 3hr increments, and more widespread availability. I think people trust what they can see, rather than what must be regurgitated from another's perspective (euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Cmc is pretty weak, looks to be 1-2 mainly on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Cmc is pretty weak, looks to be 1-2 mainly on grassy surfaces. Gotta love how all the models collapse the day leading up to the event it never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 FWIW, some notable late-season snowstorms have occurred with an AO+/PNA-. The April 1982 blizzard and 1997 April Fool's Day snowstorm are the biggest ones. LOL we've had a positive NAO and AO all winter...EPO is king, when that folds up shop, then we're done Pazzo has a point tho...The AO/NAO parameters, and really any/all parameters that produce anomalous cold, becomes increasingly important to be all in our favor later and later in the season. I know what Don pointed out about those prolific storms and what the ao/nao numbers said then, but this is not a +NAO on 4-6-82 ... The EPO becomes tougher and tougher to produce cold on its own later in the season, and less of a correlation as well...part of that is seasonal wavelengths shortening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 My snow map for tomorrow I've been 5 posted so I can't reply on here but enjoy the snow guys, this one is for pazzo LOL, no one that far south will see 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Gotta love how all the models collapse the day leading up to the event it never fails. what?lol Models still look good. They didnt collapse for the previous storms, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Cmc is pretty weak, looks to be 1-2 mainly on grassy surfaces. Looks NAM like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Why wouldn't the snow stick to streets if the temps are 28-31 degrees with a thick cloud deck? Thanks for the reply in advance. (Obviously not talking about midtown Manhattan) Also, How did your 2"-4" call go for the March 5th 6"-10" storm?? Surface temps for anyone near the I-95 corridor will likely be within a degree or two of 32F, either direction. Indirect late March sunlight should supply more than enough UV to warm paved surfaces a few degrees, leading to 1/4-1/2" melting rates during at least 10 am to 4 pm, meaning we'd need pretty good rates (1/2" per hour or more) to get accumulation on untreated paved surfaces; obviously melting rates are greater at 34F vs. 30F, but I'm just trying to be illustrative. Traffic adds additional heat and increases the melting rate (as does salt). Of course, once there is accumulation on roads, that melting rate goes to near zero at 32F, given the UV-reflective nature of snow, meaning snow would then start to accumulate much faster - many people don't understand that difference (snow falling on snow accumulates pretty easily). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Pazzo has a point tho...The AO/NAO parameters, and really any/all parameters that produce anomalous cold, becomes increasingly important to be all in our favor later and later in the season. I know what Don pointed out about those prolific storms and what the ao/nao numbers said then, but this is not a +NAO on 4-6-82 ... 4-6-82.gif The EPO becomes tougher and tougher to produce cold on its own later in the season, and less of a correlation as well...part of that is seasonal wavelengths shortening EP-np corr.PNG We all agree that you will not see the same - anomalous departures in March like you do in Jan and Feb , so where -EPO + PNA regimes can produced - 20 mid winter , you can still see - 10 departures later in the Season on into early March . At this point in the season what is 1 or 2 SD above normal in Manitoba can still be below normal into the NE . What Pazzo misses is if you are - 5 or so at 850 ( even if that only translates to mid 40`s at the BL ) once LP is present you can easily wet bulb to 0 C with that profile . The mid levels , BL and Rates determine late season snowfall , not the calender or the sun . We never argued we would see temps in the teens , but just " cold enough " to snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 UKMET matches the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 what?lol Models still look good. They didnt collapse for the previous storms, GGEM is now just a light accum on colder surfaces like the NAM? It sure seems like the models are going downhill for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 UKMET EURO GFS .vs NAM GEM RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 UKMET EURO GFS .vs NAM GEM RGEM You forgot the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 We all agree that you will not see the same - anomalous departures in March like you do in Jan and Feb , so where -EPO + PNA regimes can produced - 20 mid winter , you can still see - 10 departures later in the Season on into early March . At this point in the season what is 1 or 2 SD above normal in Manitoba can still be below normal into the NE . What Pazzo misses is if you are - 5 or so at 850 ( even if that only translates to mid 40`s at the BL ) once LP is present you can easily wet bulb to 0 C with that profile . The mid levels , BL and Rates determine late season snowfall , not the calender or the sun . We never argued we would see temps in the teens , but just " cold enough " to snow . The storm track becomes an issue too though..need that nao to suppress the northern jet more and more as spring presses in...but yea, tack on a +PNA hooked up to a -epo then the cold will come in still... but you generally also need that nao upstream to cut off the system and allow a prolific precip maker, large storm and overcome any BL issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GGEM is now just a light accum on colder surfaces like the NAM? It sure seems like the models are going downhill for this event. So **** what the Ukmet and GFS say at 12z? Or what the Euro is about to show? Calm down. This is a 3"-6" snow event. Always has been and will remain that way. The range of emotions here is ludicrous. Especially after we have just had a historic Jan-March and another 50"+ season on the way for a NYC station (KLGA). It will snow tomorrow. Whether it's 2"-4" or 3"-6", who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 So **** what the Ukmet and GFS say at 12z? Or what the Euro is about to show? Calm down. This is a 3"-6" snow event. Always has been and will remain that way. I'm calm. Just pointing out that some models have gone downhill. Last night pretty much all models looked like significant snow. Today it has changed to a model battle. I'll feel better if the EURO still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The storm track becomes an issue too though..need that nao to suppress the northern jet more and more as spring presses in...but yea, tack on a +PNA hooked up to a -epo then the cold will come in still... but you generally also need that nao upstream to cut off the system and allow a prolific precip maker, large storm and overcome any BL issues And FWIW, I do feel snow in early April is a strong possibility this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 UKMET EURO GFS SREFs .vs NAM GEM RGEM Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Fixed Isn't the GEM basically a low resolution version of the RGEM at this range? If so, it's 4 models against 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The spinning will be funny if the Euro sucks. (2 Euro's that is-parallel and regular) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Pazzo has a point tho...The AO/NAO parameters, and really any/all parameters that produce anomalous cold, becomes increasingly important to be all in our favor later and later in the season. I know what Don pointed out about those prolific storms and what the ao/nao numbers said then, but this is not a +NAO on 4-6-82 ... 4-6-82.gif The EPO becomes tougher and tougher to produce cold on its own later in the season, and less of a correlation as well...part of that is seasonal wavelengths shortening EP-np corr.PNG the EPO has the biggest correlation in the upper midwest/plains. we can get months like july 2013 where the trough was far enough west to allow ridging to build from the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 FixedInteresting.. Globals vs short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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