CIK62 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 April 82 was one of my favorite blizzards of all time for sheer ferocity combined with the record cold and a high number of lightning strikes. That was also the last time NYC set three consecutive daily low temperature records. The out of season nature of that event really made it special. Don't forget the El Chicon volcano had just blown it's top and was cooling the northern hemisphere and adding particulate matter to upper layers of atmosphere to be used as nuclei for the snow crystals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This is not our last accumulating snow . We will be moving up on that list before this is completely over. Pazzo faints. With a pos AO and NAO? That seems like... a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 With a pos AO and NAO? That seems like... a stretch LOL we've had a positive NAO and AO all winter...EPO is king, when that folds up shop, then we're done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 With a pos AO and NAO? That seems like... a stretch FWIW, some notable late-season snowstorms have occurred with an AO+/PNA-. The April 1982 blizzard and 1997 April Fool's Day snowstorm are the biggest ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 With a pos AO and NAO? That seems like... a stretch Cough Cough . Did you just parachute in ? That looks like a 500 mb map from Feb 1 - 5 - 10 -15 - 20 -25 - 28 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 1990 had April snow after a mid March heat wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam seems to be the outlier right now, been pretty steady in keeping heavier snows to the south, most here with exception of Central and southern Jersey are just 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 With a pos AO and NAO? That seems like... a stretch -NAO is more necessary for Virginia and DC area. LGA is about to have back to back 50"+ winters with a dominant -EPO and +NAO. -EPO is obviously the king for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Talking about the EPO, no sign of it going positive anytime soon. PNA is still forecasted to be positive. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam seems to be the outlier right now, been pretty steady in keeping heavier snows to the south, most here with exception of Central and southern Jersey are just 1-2" that would put some of these "guaranteed" 3-6 totals in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 that would put some of these "guaranteed" 3-6 totals in big trouble. I'm more worried for my area all the way up here, I really don't see a uniform storm total, I definately see pretty sharp cut off at 84 between the 3-5" and 1-2" totals... I think nyc South is fine... Watch that radar tonight tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Talking about the EPO, no sign of it going positive anytime soon. PNA is still forecasted to be positive. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png JMA remains bullish on a -EPO/+PNA. That's no surprise with the record +PDO coupled with the intensifying El Nino pattern. The ridiculously resilient ridge continues unabated. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 LOL we've had a positive NAO and AO all winter...EPO is king, when that folds up shop, then we're done Except.. it's now late March. As JM mentioned earlier, the snow for Friday is happening EXACTLY when we have seen a temporary dip in the AO and NAO. That negative state appears to be fleeting and both phenomena are progged to return to a positive state. The 3.5 sigma drop in the PNA apparent in the four panel graphic posted also suggests a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 JMA remains bullish on a -EPO/+PNA. That's no surprise with the record +PDO coupled with the intensifying El Nino pattern. The ridiculously resilient ridge continues unabated. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Wonder if we see a repeat of the NW flow that dominated last summer-cool, dry weather most days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm more worried for my area all the way up here, I really don't see a uniform storm total, I definately see pretty sharp cut off at 84 between the 3-5" and 1-2" totals... I think nyc South is fine... Watch that radar tonight tho RGEM also has the axis of heaviest snow along rt1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Except.. it's now late March. As JM mentioned earlier, the snow for Friday is happening EXACTLY when we have seen a temporary dip in the AO and NAO. That negative state appears to be fleeting and both phenomena are progged to return to a positive state. The 3.5 sigma drop in the PNA apparent in the four panel graphic posted also suggests a change. PNA is still going to be positive along with the EPO being negative. No change to warmer weather anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Except.. it's now late March. As JM mentioned earlier, the snow for Friday is happening EXACTLY when we have seen a temporary dip in the AO and NAO. That negative state appears to be fleeting and both phenomena are progged to return to a positive state. The 3.5 sigma drop in the PNA apparent in the four panel graphic posted also suggests a change. This has been a rough 6 weeks for you , my suggestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Wonder if we see a repeat of the NW flow that dominated last summer-cool, dry weather most days Considering we have a stronger Niño signal now than we did last summer I would lean towards it being cooler than normal this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This has been a rough 6 weeks for you , my suggestion Still waiting on my 2 week period of -10 departures. Instead, seems we will see-saw until early April. Pretty typical March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Still waiting on my 2 week period of -10 departures. Instead, seems we will see-saw until early April. Pretty typical March. If the first 6 calls did not impress you , nothing will . Working on the 7th for u you are 0 for 6 . Please don`t go back down knockout blvd . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Still waiting on my 2 week period of -10 departures. Instead, seems we will see-saw until early April. Pretty typical March. Not really. Most places are well above normal for snowfall and the temp departure is solidly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 If the first 6 calls did not impress you , nothing will . Working on the 7th for u you are 0 for 6 . please don`t go back down knockout blvd . You are like Adam Dunn. Bats around .230 but is always good for 20 or so dingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not really. Most places are well above normal for snowfall and the temp departure is solidly negative. It helps when the first week of the month was like mid January. Since it's been pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 You are like Adam Dunn. Bats around .230 but is always good for 20 or so dingers. Been UK since Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Been UK since Jan UK will lose by the Sweet 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Rgem is south. Not too different from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Rgem is south. Not too different from the NAM. Not a good sign for me.. Seems my worries for North of 84 were warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It helps when the first week of the month was like mid January. Since it's been pretty typical. You are correct we've seen some nice positive days and now some more negative days. Although we will be a lot more negative than positive for the next several days compared to the the last 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Isn't the rgem good when its 12 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Isn't the rgem good when its 12 hours out? I like the rgem anywhere within 24hrs... It's nailed ALOT of storms this year... By far best short term we have to go by right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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