PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Is this a typical heavy wet snow that we see in March? if so it probably won't be too bad on treated roads, but people might still have to shovel the driveway.Or just wait a day. If it snows in March, nature takes care of it....seem to remember one in March 04 that was worse than progged and we had to shut the schools early in NJ. Same with the April 03 storm. Got pics of the kids with lilies in the snow.... Agree . This will not be like Feb this will not freeze solid . Sat will get into the mid 40s and yes then the SUN will take care of it for you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think 3 - 5 fall with .5 these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal . 18z GFS Bufkit for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73 Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ? I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days . I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them Keep calling for epic 2 inch per hour rate events and eventually you will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think 3 - 5 fall with .5 these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal . 18z GFS Bufkit for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73 Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ? I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days . I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them I only see .483 on BUFKIT for LGA as snow after that it goes to ZR and ends with a total of .573. This site, coolwx has nearly the same estimates for LGA with .49 as snow and .598 total LE. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLGA&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Not sure where you are getting those numbers of 6.4" from .73. Gridded data ive found has the same, roughly .58 for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Keep calling for epic 2 inch per hour rate events and eventually you will be right 1 per hour rates will possible in bands that set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Keep calling for epic 2 inch per hour rate events and eventually you will be right Cut the crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .5 in 6 hours is <= 1"/hr, what's with the "better than that" reply to needing 1-2"/hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 .5 in 6 hours is <= 1"/hr, what's with the "better than that" reply to needing 1-2"/hr? I read Chris`s post as 1/2 an inch an hour . That`s what WHAT`S WITH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This isn't 2 weeks ago but 3 to 5 inches is doable3-5 is a fair call, much like with the event earlier in march, people are overanalyzing the negative aspects of the setup. Last time it was that the events with sagging fronts favor areas south,now it's something else but it's the same people and they play the odds more than actually dissecting THIS particular setup and coming to an objective conclusion, sure we're not gonna see 6 inches of snow in Times Square at 3PM, but we all already knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Agree . This will not be like Feb this will not freeze solid . Sat will get into the mid 40s and yes then the SUN will take care of it for you . back on March 22nd 1964 NYC had 5" of wet snow on the cars and grassy areas at 7am...less on sidewalks and streets...The temperature hit 32 for the low...By noon most of the snow was gone and the afternoon temperature hit 50...I played two ball games that afternoon in the park...I played ball the day before also...Spring snows don't last long...1958's 12 inches was gone in three days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What do you think about this storm 18Z and 12Z GFS BUFKIT have been continually showing best lift outside of the DGZ. There is some decent lift inside of -12 to -18 but it's not great. Overall its pretty meh. You would want to see a larger zone growth region and better omega to get higher ratios. It looks to be on the order of 10:1 or so for the event. With the high late march sun angle its going to be hard to get snow to accumulate during the day without good rates. I like the initial thump and it could be good for up to 1"/hr rates for a time. Global models overall are in pretty good agreement on this and it still looks like a decent event but nothing spectacular. I would probably go a bit conservative on this and say around 2-5 for the city with higher amounts NW and into CT around 3-6". But of course this can all change if the 00Z suite or tomorrows run come in juicier and colder we could be talking about low end warning snows. That's just my take on it. Attached is the 18Z bufkit GFS for LGA. The blue line is the ratios which indicate about 10:1. The pink box I highlighted is the area when snow is occurring. Horizontal lines is DGZ -12 to -18 and the vertical lines is omega which goes up to -8ub/s for the event. The 12Z GFS had some -10ub/s areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Chris`s post that snow will not accumulate Fri unless there are 1-2 inch per hour rates is just silly . .5 plus in 6 hours with 850`s -2 925`s -2 BL 30 will accumulate 3 to 5 around the city and the fact that times square remains wet is irrelevant . The atmosphere at every layer is cold enough to snow and just under 1 inch per rates will accumulate . This is not hard . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 1 per hour rates will possible in bands that set upthis storm won't be like that. 95% of this forum will get about the same thing. There won't be big differences in accumulations imo. It'll end up being 4-6 inches. Quick moving system and everybody gets almost the same amount of QPF. Obviously more QPF or precipitation to the south but it'll be warmer down south by philly, so it'll mostly even out (better snow ratios for NYC than Philadelphia). I'd say Philly gets 3 inches just from wet bulbing. We get a gradual snow event of 7 hours. 5 inches for Manhattan is not outta the question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 3-5 is a fair call, much like with the event earlier in march, people are overanalyzing the negative aspects of the setup. Last time it was that the events with sagging fronts favor areas south,now it's something else but it's the same people and they play the odds more than actually dissecting THIS particular setup and coming to an objective conclusion, sure we're not gonna see 6 inches of snow in Times Square at 3PM, but we all already knew that. Oo yeah you are absolutely right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 this storm won't be like that. 95% of this forum will get about the same thing. There won't be big differences in accumulations imo. It'll end up being 4-6 inches. Quick moving system and everybody gets almost the same amount of QPF. Obviously more QPF or precipitation to the south but it'll be warmer down south by philly, so it'll mostly even out (better snow ratios for NYC than Philadelphia). I'd say Philly gets 3 inches just from wet bulbing. We get a gradual snow event of 7 hours. 5 inches for Manhattan is not outta the question! 3 to 5 is my call and i'm sticking to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I read that you need 850mb temps at -6c or greater to support all snow in mid/late March and April because the air modifies quicker at the boundary layer than during the winter, especially during the day Best post of the year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 3-5 inches is definitely not out of the question here. It's not feb 20th but it's also not April 20th. My guess would be 2-3" for the lower elevations and up to 4-6" for higher elevations of western NJ. Not a powerhouse here but not a clipper either. No reason at all to think that we can't get a few inches of snow in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nams a much better run then previous, by tomorrow I expect it to catch on to the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam remains a thump for north central nj and Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Precip moves in between 11am and 2pm, atleast we'll get to see this storm, to Many nighttime snowfalls this seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam is all snow from Phl north. Again best qpf is central and southern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam is .25+ all snow nyc metro .50 to Driscoll bridge all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=100 Kphl .75+ all snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I like the trend, nam def brought better precip a bit further east and North, like I said expect it to catch up to other guidance by tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Kphl .75+ all snow lol And? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 And? Lol Just thought it was a cool sounding...nothing to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Just thought it was a cool sounding...nothing to it Oh my bad lmao... I thought u meant something I wasn't getting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam has really surprised me this year, it's almost always on the dry and conservative side, even within 24hrs... We weren't NAM'd once all year, with the exception of the blizzard that never was for some parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nam has really surprised me this year, it's almost always on the dry and conservative side, even within 24hrs... We weren't NAM'd once all year, with the exception of the blizzard that never was for some parts It's been good also with the northern gradient. Continues to show no preciep into Boston. Nailed that for March 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Precip moves in between 11am and 2pm, atleast we'll get to see this storm, to Many nighttime snowfalls this seasons +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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