anthonyweather Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 18z GFS CMC NAVGEM Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 What's the trend been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I think we will see this storm rap up nicely on future model runs. -AO and neutral NAO should slow down the flow appreciably and allow this storm to undergo positive feedback and rapid synoptic wave development. Major caveat at this point is this split flow has created model chaos this year, even inside 48 hrs. So confidence will remain lower than usual.... That being said, at this point I strongly favor a track closer to the coast and wrapped up, than ots and strung out. I just want to see this shortwave come in hot east of the Rockies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I like this doorman vs jbenedet show down. If last march was any clue the PV coming down could mean suppression. Reality is anything is on the table right now. My money is on a moderate snow event outside of the NYC heat island and especially at elevations above 1000k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Even just a couple/few hundred feet should help significantly this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Even just a couple/few hundred feet should help significantly this time of year. Very true the 97 event was like that. I'm sure there was 2 feet on the observation deck of the Empire State Building with that storm. This is a little earlier and colder then that one but also as it's currently modeled weaker and less dynamic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 allow this storm to undergo positive feedback and rapid synoptic wave development. JB could you explain this please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 00Z/17 GFS is a glancing blow again, GGEM is still a solid hit but looks like it would be mostly liquid based on 850s/sfc/thicknesses for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Very true the 97 event was like that. I'm sure there was 2 feet on the observation deck of the Empire State Building with that storm. This is a little earlier and colder then that one but also as it's currently modeled weaker and less dynamic NYC was in something of a dry slot during that storm. Boston isn't that different on April 1st and had 25". If the insane dynamics they had came through further southwest, NYC would've been crushed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 0z GGEM.. solid hit for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 getimg (2).jpg getimg (3).jpg getimg (4).jpg Do you have the snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Do you have the snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 The Euro and GGEM look good precipitation wise, the Canadian is warm though. The GFS is pretty much nothing, I feel like I've seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Looks like a substantial NW shift incoming on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Not quite there yet on the GFS but a NW shift nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Not quite there yet on the GFS but a NW shift nevertheless. Definitely a noticeable shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Not quite there yet on the GFS but a NW shift nevertheless.Is it showing any accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 Is it showing any accumulations? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Not trying to start an argument, but to me the precip looks more expansive on the NW shield but the low itself tracked a tad South Edit: taking a second look the low is about 30-50 miles south from 06z off the SC coast, however precip extent is much further north and well organised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 subtle north shifts are fine. A big one would mean more rain, depending on dynamics of course. storm behind it looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfoxyny Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 subtle north shifts are fine. A big one would mean more rain, depending on dynamics of course. storm behind it looks interesting... This is starting to look like a non event. lacking any significant precip. Really need a big jump north on the models starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 How about we let things play out for a couple of days before throwing in the towel. Does anyone ever learn? Maybe it is unlikely to be anything but models vary wildly this time of year. I know something's gonna go down with a record breaking AO drop during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I would love to see this miss for reasons previously stated, but I have strong suspicion that this well end up being a rather significant event. The 12z ECMWF shifted NW. Paste job for 95% of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I would love to see this miss for reasons previously stated, but I have strong suspicion that this well end up being a rather significant event. The 12z ECMWF shifted NW. Paste job for 95% of the area. accumus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Surface temps hang within a degree or two of freezing for the southeast portion of the forum, but the rest of the column is cold enough to support all snow. Rates look heavy enough that a March sun angle and marginal BL temps could be overcome. Further NW into the hills is pure paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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