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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Current pack vs mid Feb(I think), I'm pretty sure you could have driven an 18 wheeler on top of it yesterday. Measured 9-15" depths throughout the yard. Shade is helping, more sunny spots in town are lower. Pack is much more stout with a little elevation at 1500ft plus..down here in the valley not so much.

Nice comparison pics. Looks like you have a good spot there. Not bad for Manchester.

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heavy flooding by FRI AM?

 

Seriously thou are there much in the way of concerns for flooding Thursday /Thursday night in parts of SNE

 

I'm not sure the flooding will be that bad.  Maybe on some smaller streams.  Mainstem flooding is tied to a combination of ice dams and rapid snowmelt in NNE.  We'll see how the ice dams up, but I'm not overly concerned about a big release in NNE.

 

Here in SNE?  I'm in the Kevin camp with this one.  Things are going to look an awful lot different region-wide come this weekend.

 

22.1/14. 

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I'm not sure the flooding will be that bad.  Maybe on some smaller streams.  Mainstem flooding is tied to a combination of ice dams and rapid snowmelt in NNE.  We'll see how the ice dams up, but I'm not overly concerned about a big release in NNE.

 

Here in SNE?  I'm in the Kevin camp with this one.  Things are going to look an awful lot different region-wide come this weekend.

 

22.1/14. 

One of the rare times we agree on something. Most folks will be seeing a good amount of grass by Fri morning

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I think we'll score another one.....worked in '78.

I'm pretty much in uncharted territory for three year averages. Statistics say I should regress and maybe I do, but a very early glimpse at next year certainly doesn't look bad in terms of ENSO. However it's very very early. :lol:

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Lol...he does this every single time.

 

It'll be mostly gone by probably the middle to end of next week outside the wooded areas, but you aren't melting 12-16" of hard pack in one day in the 50s.

 

I was looking back at 2011 when we went through a similar 2 day stretch.  We started with 16" on the ground and wound up with 8".  depending on how things go with the fronts, I still think I'll have measurable on the ground come Saturday.

 

What's interesting is that going off the dates of that melt down (because the consistency of the snow is the same) is that I could see having snow till about 4/10 with patches left in the woods until about 4/25.  That's never happened in the past 30 years but I remember that regularly happening when I was at Lyndon but there you'd see snow in the woods into May.

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I have about 80 percent snow cover in the front yard, but there is a strip of bare that goes around the perimeter. the back yard now has a corner where the sandbox is located that is big enough to set up some lawn chairs and watch the kids play in the sand, even though most of the yard still has a depth ranging from 3 -6 inches with a few areas still near 10 inches

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Nice 46F diurnal span yesterday, with 39/-7, which took an inch off the top of my snowpack - probably sublimation in the low low RH.  Hope most of the 24" survives Thurs/Fri, so I can use it to reach higher while pruning the apple trees Saturday.  (Should've done that last Sat, took a snow core instead.)  Upper singles this morning, well below my avg (42/20) but far from last year's -17 on the same date.

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I'm pretty much in uncharted territory for three year averages. Statistics say I should regress and maybe I do, but a very early glimpse at next year certainly doesn't look bad in terms of ENSO. However it's very very early. :lol:

Unless next year is east based, regression likely waits until 2017...then maybe we repeat the 80's for a stretch.

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How does the PDO look for next year.  That has helped us alot lately.  And if that EPO can be in our favor like it has the last couple years that's also a good thing.  Barring a Strong Enso event in either direction, that Warm PDO seems to really help to pump that -EPO which seems to do a nice job for us here in the east.

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How does the PDO look for next year.  That has helped us alot lately.  And if that EPO can be in our favor like it has the last couple years that's also a good thing.  Barring a Strong Enso event in either direction, that Warm PDO seems to really help to pump that -EPO which seems to do a nice job for us here in the east.

I think the PDO will be +, EPO again negative, and the polar fields should be more cooperative with the solar flux waning from it's relative peak this past season.

 

Snowfall anomalies could be focused further south, towards the MA.

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So you're thinking the PDO and EPO will be similar to this year.  And if the Snowfall Anomalies are focused further south...then that would indicate that SNE/NNE would be cold....no?  Suppression? 

Yes, probably not another Feb '34 redux :lol:, but pretty cold....and we may battle supression, yea.

Just an early guess....I'll articulate my thoughts with much greater percision next fall.

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I think the PDO will be +, EPO again negative, and the polar fields should be more cooperative with the solar flux waning from it's relative peak this past season.

 

Snowfall anomalies could be focused further south, towards the MA.

 

Oh goody - more cirrus sniffing for NNE?  I think the last winter in which latitude favored NNE compared to climo was 2008-09; maybe we're still paying for 07-08 when latitude was king.

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Oh goody - more cirrus sniffing for NNE? I think the last winter in which latitude favored NNE compared to climo was 2008-09; maybe we're still paying for 07-08 when latitude was king.

Yeah it's been a while for us in terms of having the better anomalies relative to the rest of the northeast.

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