Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, more extensive spring pack in Bryce's sandbox than under the chairlift at Lake Tahoe.

Go figure.

[CoastalWx]

In that case, bring on global warming if it means more blizz's and winter storm warnings for us

Classic crap from environmental scientists who don't understand how weather patterns work. Stick to counting tree rings.

[powderfreak]

That's incredible...I was there exactly 16 years ago almost to the day and there was something like 27 feet OTG...granted that was 1999 which was a banner year, but even a normal "crappy" year they should have at least 100 inches of base.

 

The only other year that can probably come close to that is 1976-1977....that's ridiculous for them.

 

Sugarbowl on Donner Summit (I think), is one of the snowiest Tahoe areas and they just closed due to lack of snow...

 

*******

"The drought continues to hurt Lake Tahoe’s tourism industry.

Sugar Bowl is the latest ski resort to close down early due to a lack of snow fall.

Skiers at the resort told FOX if the ski season is getting shorter and shorter, the lift prices at Sugar Bowl should be shrinking as well.

“It was 95 dollars (for a lift ticket today) and they only got two lifts running right now, so half price would be even more than they should charge right now,” said snowboarder Kellin Garvatt from Roseville.

*******

[Damage In Tolland]

It's so hard...to say goodbye

[powderfreak]

Classic crap from environmental scientists who don't understand how weather patterns work. Stick to counting tree rings.

 

40/70 asked earlier this morning, but do you think this is all just chance or is there something to the large increase in historic snowstorms over the past 20 years with rising average temperatures around the globe?  I think that makes sense, and I've always thought a warmer VT winter would be a snowier one, haha.

[ORH_wxman]

Sugarbowl on Donner Summit (I think), is one of the snowiest Tahoe areas and they just closed due to lack of snow...

 

*******

"The drought continues to hurt Lake Tahoe’s tourism industry.

Sugar Bowl is the latest ski resort to close down early due to a lack of snow fall.

Skiers at the resort told FOX if the ski season is getting shorter and shorter, the lift prices at Sugar Bowl should be shrinking as well.

“It was 95 dollars (for a lift ticket today) and they only got two lifts running right now, so half price would be even more than they should charge right now,” said snowboarder Kellin Garvatt from Roseville.

*******

 

Talk about a contrast from 4 years ago:

 

http://tahoetopia.com/news/alpine-meadows-open-skiing-over-july-4th-weekend

[powderfreak]

That's incredible...I was there exactly 16 years ago almost to the day and there was something like 27 feet OTG...granted that was 1999 which was a banner year, but even a normal "crappy" year they should have at least 100 inches of base.

 

The only other year that can probably come close to that is 1976-1977....that's ridiculous for them.

 

Well you look at those pics, but the base depths displayed by Squaw are currently over 40" at High Camp.  But if 40" base leaves that much bare ground around...wow.  haha.  Though I know they have some of the most ridiculous blowing and drifting and probably differential melting (like bare on one slope all the way to the top, while the next aspect has a 4-6 foot base) of any place in the U.S.

[CoastalWx]

Wow that's awful in CA. Good luck this summer and they better hope they have the Pineapple Express next year.

Snowpack for 3/24 is awesome here. I still have to peak around corners and slowly back out by driveway so I don't hit anyone. The piles are still immense. That will take a huge hit Thuraday and I expect more bare ground, but it's not all going, especially in areas with 18+.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40/70 asked earlier this morning, but do you think this is all just chance or is there something to the large increase in historic snowstorms over the past 20 years with rising average temperatures around the globe?  I think that makes sense, and I've always thought a warmer VT winter would be a snowier one, haha.

The poles warming faster than the rest of the globe is what is doing it, I think...in general, not this year.

[ORH_wxman]

Well you look at those pics, but the base depths displayed by Squaw are currently over 40" at High Camp.  But if 40" base leaves that much bare ground around...wow.  haha.  Though I know they have some of the most ridiculous blowing and drifting and probably differential melting (like bare on one slope all the way to the top, while the next aspect has a 4-6 foot base) of any place in the U.S.

 

We had 20+ feet OTG at the base of Alpine...only God know swhat ti was at the top in 1999.

[Damage In Tolland]

Wow that's awful in CA. Good luck this summer and they better hope they have the Pineapple Express next year.

Snowpack for 3/24 is awesome here. I still have to peak around corners and slowly back out by driveway so I don't hit anyone. The piles are still immense. That will take a huge hit Thuraday and I expect more bare ground, but it's not all going, especially in areas with 18+.

ALL of IT. 

[powderfreak]

Talk about a contrast from 4 years ago:

 

http://tahoetopia.com/news/alpine-meadows-open-skiing-over-july-4th-weekend

 

Haha that's ridiculous.  Easily the most highly variable snow/precip spot in the U.S. probably there in the Sierra. 

 

2010-2011 was a great winter though for the entire country....the west had awesome snow and the east had awesome snow.  That was a big winter for the U.S. ski industry.  I don't think folks realized just how good that winter was at the time from coast to coast, and even I didn't realize at the time how good it was...probably because we have followed it up with a bunch of sub-par winters locally.

 

But wasn't march 2011 in the Sierra like off-the-charts ridiculous?  I'll have to look it up.  I think that month featured some obscene storm.

 

Here are the recent photos from Squaw...

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/no-snow-in-tahoe-ski-resorts-closed-photos-2015-3

[CoastalWx]

40/70 asked earlier this morning, but do you think this is all just chance or is there something to the large increase in historic snowstorms over the past 20 years with rising average temperatures around the globe? I think that makes sense, and I've always thought a warmer VT winter would be a snowier one, haha.

I'm certainly open to the discussion and it's possible. It also could be a decadal thing where in 10 yrs where are back to being elated from 8" if snow. The long wave patterns are what dictate the pattern. Maybe Boston would have gotten 104" instead of 111....:I don't know, and we have no idea of quantifying this. I do believe in warming for sure, but I pump the brakes a bit at blaming warming for this winter. It's not as easy as it's made out to be.

[ORH_wxman]

40/70 asked earlier this morning, but do you think this is all just chance or is there something to the large increase in historic snowstorms over the past 20 years with rising average temperatures around the globe?  I think that makes sense, and I've always thought a warmer VT winter would be a snowier one, haha.

 

 

There might be a small contribution...but we had a similar binge of KUs in the late 1950s/1960s...a very cold period. Some of the snow meauring techniques probably make bigger storms look a bit more impressive than they did years ago. It won't effect moderate or smaller storms, but a 30" total now is probably like 23" years ago without 6 hour clear and re-measure.

 

There's no doubt that we've had an increase in large storms over the past 15-20 years, but the attribution is unclear. The warming by itself only contributes about 5% extra PWAT....if you can attribute some of the blocking episodes to the warming, then that could also help cause more large storms for us, but there is disagreement in the literature on the attribution of the blocking episodes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's incredible...I was there exactly 16 years ago almost to the day and there was something like 27 feet OTG...granted that was 1999 which was a banner year, but even a normal "crappy" year they should have at least 100 inches of base.

 

The only other year that can probably come close to that is 1976-1977....that's ridiculous for them.

Shocking...yet another parallel to the late 70's.

Jesus, I expect them to come out with Atari all over again soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The poles warming faster than the rest of the globe is what is doing it, I think...in general, not this year.

 

 

There might be a small contribution...but we had a similar binge of KUs in the late 1950s/1960s...a very cold period. Some of the snow meauring techniques probably make bigger storms look a bit more impressive than they did years ago. It won't effect moderate or smaller storms, but a 30" total now is probably like 23" years ago without 6 hour clear and re-measure.

 

There's no doubt that we've had an increase in large storms over the past 15-20 years, but the attribution is unclear. The warming by itself only contributes about 5% extra PWAT....if you can attribute some of the blocking episodes to the warming, then that could also help cause more large storms for us, but there is disagreement in the literature on the attribution of the blocking episodes.

[bobbutts]

That's incredible...I was there exactly 16 years ago almost to the day and there was something like 27 feet OTG...granted that was 1999 which was a banner year, but even a normal "crappy" year they should have at least 100 inches of base.

 

The only other year that can probably come close to that is 1976-1977....that's ridiculous for them.

Sigh, time flies.  I lived in South Lake for during the time, some epic winters for sure.  I'm not sure if it was the same year,  but there was a ton of snow and skiing to the base at Mammoth in July.  

 

I am visiting next month, not even packing my skis.

[Damage In Tolland]

Wow that's awful in CA. Good luck this summer and they better hope they have the Pineapple Express next year.

Snowpack for 3/24 is awesome here. I still have to peak around corners and slowly back out by driveway so I don't hit anyone. The piles are still immense. That will take a huge hit Thuraday and I expect more bare ground, but it's not all going, especially in areas with 18+.

Going going gone

 

[CoastalWx]

There might be a small contribution...but we had a similar binge of KUs in the late 1950s/1960s...a very cold period. Some of the snow meauring techniques probably make bigger storms look a bit more impressive than they did years ago. It won't effect moderate or smaller storms, but a 30" total now is probably like 23" years ago without 6 hour clear and re-measure.

There's no doubt that we've had an increase in large storms over the past 15-20 years, but the attribution is unclear. The warming by itself only contributes about 5% extra PWAT....if you can attribute some of the blocking episodes to the warming, then that could also help cause more large storms for us, but there is disagreement in the literature on the attribution of the blocking episodes.

I was looking for that number and thought it was a bit less, but anyways....it's obviously not as clear cut as some make it out to be. While it's possible we get more of a non-linear effect (ie 5% increase or whatever it is could cause greater than 5% increase in QPF) we can't quantify it on snow...especially with such a high variance and subjective technique. The 6hr measurements are just one example. We'll need more years under our belt that's for sure.

[CoastalWx]

It ain't all going Kevin.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, gradient is only about 30 miles north of me, too.

[Damage In Tolland]

It ain't all going Kevin.

hope you're right but I am 100% convinced that this taken late Sunday in my hood

Will look like this

[OceanStWx]

I'm certainly open to the discussion and it's possible. It also could be a decadal thing where in 10 yrs where are back to being elated from 8" if snow. The long wave patterns are what dictate the pattern. Maybe Boston would have gotten 104" instead of 111....:I don't know, and we have no idea of quantifying this. I do believe in warming for sure, but I pump the brakes a bit at blaming warming for this winter. It's not as easy as it's made out to be.

 

We deal in the day to day (which is weather), and I can definitely say I'm no expert on climate (the long term average of weather).

 

Climate dictates weather, but there will always be extremes, and weather is rarely in the middle. That's what makes it so hard to project. You could essentially come up with sound arguments for why a changing climate could mean New England is warmer with less snow, or warmer with more snow, or colder with more snow, etc.

 

Perhaps the worst thing for climate science is that the label global warming stuck, because winters like this make millions of people truly believe anything climate related is bogus because "they were told" the planet was warming.

 

Even if the future pattern is more favorable to larger snowstorms, we're going to have some ratter winters in there. You can pretty much bank on that.

 

[CoastalWx]

Well areas that have been kissed by the sun will be gone for sure. I'm sure I'll have a lot of my front yard back. Maybe Bryce will able to use his playhouse by Easter?

[Brian5671]

that'll all be gone by easter for sure.   With no true arctic air, the sun will do the damage, not to mention an inch of rain and temps in the mid 50's Thursday.  Cool to see the layers of snow in that pic.

[CoastalWx]

We deal in the day to day (which is weather), and I can definitely say I'm no expert on climate (the long term average of weather).

Climate dictates weather, but there will always be extremes, and weather is rarely in the middle. That's what makes it so hard to project. You could essentially come up with sound arguments for why a changing climate could mean New England is warmer with less snow, or warmer with more snow, or colder with more snow, etc.

Perhaps the worst thing for climate science is that the label global warming stuck, because winters like this make millions of people truly believe anything climate related is bogus because "they were told" the planet was warming.

Even if the future pattern is more favorable to larger snowstorms, we're going to have some ratter winters in there. You can pretty much bank on that.

Oh yeah. It just irritates me that everything has to be blamed on AGW. Guess what, sometimes we just have weather. Period. It's a chaotic system and you only have to look at Judah's Siberian snow fail to see that we as humans don't always have the answer when we think we do. Not to go Tippy, but it's human nature to always want to believe we have the answers. We don't.

[CT Rain]

Oh yeah. It just irritates me that everything has to be blamed on AGW. Guess what, sometimes we just have weather. Period. It's a chaotic system and you only have to look at Judah's Siberian snow fail to see that we as humans don't always have the answer when we think we do. Not to go Tippy, but it's human nature to always want to believe we have the answers. We don't.

 

Yup. Hurricanes, tornadoes, cold, warm, etc all gets blamed on AGW. Cutting through the BS is hard - especially since a lot of climate related media coverage/journalism is abysmal. There are a few notable exceptions (Andy Revkin, Andrew Freedman, etc.) but they're the exception rather than the norm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is AGW even real?

[JC-CT]

Is AGW even real?

 

I heard that GHG emissions actually make the earth colder and more wintery, except in summer.

[Hambone]

Is AGW even real?

It's the sun.