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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Nasty BD on the NAM... Boston and the N and S shores may yet dip into the upper or even mid 40s sometime Monday morning. 

 

That's definitely one of those BD types that steals away ... The 500 mb ridge spine actually ends up E of our longitude while the sucker is cutting up underneath.  That's almost a physical no-no .. 

 

Re convection, is there a MLCAPE surge in this... Cause all this cloud debris is shade drawing.  You ain't geddin' no COKE even down in PA if you're holding out on destablization.  

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When the water is that cool? Itś mid May..lol..where do you think you live, GA?

I meant in the pools there..not the Atlantic..though the kids probably will head in.

 

I still remember 2 years ago when were there for that horrific Mem Day weekend  May Noreaster that snowed up north. 40 and wind and rain. Still wake up with nightmares about that weekend

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I meant in the pools there..not the Atlantic..though the kids probably will head in.

 

I still remember 2 years ago when were there for that horrific Mem Day weekend  May Noreaster that snowed up north. 40 and wind and rain. Still wake up with nightmares about that weekend

 

The GFS op is dam chilly.  

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Nasty BD on the NAM... Boston and the N and S shores may yet dip into the upper or even mid 40s sometime Monday morning. 

 

That's definitely one of those BD types that steals away ... The 500 mb ridge spine actually ends up E of our longitude while the sucker is cutting up underneath.  That's almost a physical no-no .. 

 

Re convection, is there a MLCAPE surge in this... Cause all this cloud debris is shade drawing.  You ain't geddin' no COKE even down in PA if you're holding out on destablization.  

 

Yeah that thing rushes SW Sunday night. Too bad it wasn't earlier...could be a real Charles River capsizer. 

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Not sure I see the 'warm end of the month' thing...

 

If by that we mean 'seasonally above normal at times,' I'll bite.  But I don't see very good chances for protracted 5 day heat with nocturnal lows to match, book-ended by modestly AN. That's 2012 ...such that it's a warm-hot end of month.  

 

But that's me and what I'm seeing for now.  The "tempo" of the extended tools smack more of a temperate oscillatory pattern. Which more hearkens to ...yeah, an uncomfortable afternoon here and there, but they'll be cut-off the next day by an usually low DP plague we can't get rid of (as two year bias and counting wow).

 

Then there's no question this is a terrific if even 'above normal' BD year.  This upcoming will be 3 potency events in just 10 days. With this eastern ridge being 110 lb weakling that can't to really protectively envelope us; it's allowing these v-maxes to dive SE through the lower Maritimes, and their backside NVAs will pile up the air over the cold NW Atlantic and a rumblin' on  SW they may cyclically come. So we'll have that theft of summer perpetrator to deal with, too. Heh, actually .. I'd take a nice zonal flow; that would stop the BD train just as well.  

 

Anyway, I agree there is a longer term tendency for a SW ridge to establish, though.  Yeah. That should become more of a player, but it seems to me to be keyed into seasonal-foundation work.  ...and just have to wait until June when subtropical ridges climotologically mean more to the hemisphere before it gets a kick back from that and it's "deflective" power can finally fend off this undying N-stream on roids... (jesus)  

 

I am not sure you guys are aware, but DJFM... and as far as I am aware, it is still on-going, were all like top 5 warmest months in the history of our quadrant of the Galaxy. Meanwhile we have been plagued by below normalcy that whole time like, only right here. It's like the entire planetary GW that's been on going is trying to be off-set by one geographical location.  Failing of course due to spatial magnitude/comparisons.. But if there's been any cold region at all, it's been in Kevin's enabling backyard.   

 

I tell you what... you -(S.A.D.) types that reflect on summer the way the +(S.A.D.) types reflect on winter are in for a world of hurt should we "catch-up" locally and stop getting winters altogether.  I mean just stepping back and looking at those pretty red and blue departure distributions around the Globe, ..talk about getting your local arses kissed.  The planet needs two things:

 

humans to stop being azzholes

a corrective natural event in the meantime, be it volcanic, solar ...asteroid impact, whatever.  

 

But then again, here's a thought.  It's only human conceit that tries to disconnect us from the system of nature. Since we are 100% inextricably a part of said nature, did anyone stop to consider that maybe "nature" intends for us to turn Earth into Venus?  Heh, I like that.. but it's daffy like religion.  Truth be told, nature is a perpetual play of infinite possibilities and our fate on this world and this world, are both just another fragment of chaos.  

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 I tell you what... you -(S.A.D.) types that reflect on summer the way the +(S.A.D.) types reflect on winter are in for a world of hurt should we "catch-up" locally and stop getting winters altogether.  I mean just stepping back and looking at those pretty red and blue departure distributions around the Globe, ..talk about getting your local arses kissed.  The planet needs two things:

 

humans to stop being azzholes

a corrective natural event in the meantime, be it volcanic, solar ...asteroid impact, whatever.  

 

But then again, here's a thought.  It's only human conceit that tries to disconnect us from the system of nature. Since we are 100% inextricably a part of said nature, did anyone stop to consider that maybe "nature" intends for us to turn Earth into Venus?  Heh, I like that.. but it's daffy like religion.  Truth be told, nature is a perpetual play of infinite possibilities and our fate on this world and this world, are both just another fragment of chaos.  

April only came in at +0.07C on UAH so the satellites haven't perceived 2015 as a particularly warm year. The older version (v5.6) of UAH came in at +0.16C for April, which was still a drop of .1C from March. The year is averaging .27C on the old version of UAH above the 30-year mean, again not nearly as warm as 1998. 

 

RSS had a similar value to UAH v5.6 with a temperature anomaly of +0.17C for April.

 

GISS/NASA surface analysis came in at +0.75C for April, which was a drop of .10C from March...still quite warm but not as high as the peaks in 1998, 2007, and 2010.

 

In conclusion, the year is running warm but not shockingly so.

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April only came in at +0.07C on UAH so the satellites haven't perceived 2015 as a particularly warm year. The older version (v5.6) of UAH came in at +0.16C for April, which was still a drop of .1C from March. The year is averaging .27C on the old version of UAH above the 30-year mean, again not nearly as warm as 1998. 

 

RSS had a similar value to UAH v5.6 with a temperature anomaly of +0.17C for April.

 

GISS/NASA surface analysis came in at +0.75C for April, which was a drop of .10C from March...still quite warm but not as high as the peaks in 1998, 2007, and 2010.

 

In conclusion, the year is running warm but not shockingly so.

 

 

NASA's formal declaration/finding/conclusion to date is that Jan - Apr was the warmest Jan - Apr since record keeping.   I don't know what alarms are supposed to chime off as "shocking" in your mind (so be it..), but the entire system is certainly ringing like a bell. 

 

I think we ought to stick with the refereed sources on this one - no offense.  It is true that April was not as anomalous as March in the NH, but it still came in 2nd overall. That ending point ... you did not mention, and is the whole story really. It comes off as stat-spinning (whether you intend to or not - not trying to be a dyck here), but when one does that and omits the more compelling finding it strikes as agenda driven. 

 

Beyond this, I don't want to start a debate...we'll just have our own opinions :)   

 

word

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