forkyfork Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 what does that mean and why is it good for wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Dewpoint depressions decrease with height.. = evap cooling and momentum transfer and acceleration Twds surface. layman= damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Just for reference, here's what BTV actually looks like. ASOS right in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Just looked at tomorrow briefly and definitely several ingredients in place for both thunderstorms, strong winds and some hailers. I'm actually pretty impressed with the wind profile tomorrow b/c not only do we have an inverted-v look on the soundings but winds aloft are pretty strong. Unfortunately we'll mix down drier air mixing dews down a bit and lessening the instability potential, however, the cold pool is pretty impressive and with steep lapse rates the instability in the 3-6km range should be pretty sufficient. Also, hodos have a decent curved look to them so this could make way for the potential for maybe a couple 1''+ hail reports...actually perhaps couldn't rule out some storms trying to get stronger mesos going but lack of instability should prevent much from occurring...if we had stronger instability that could certainly be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Just looked at tomorrow briefly and definitely several ingredients in place for both thunderstorms, strong winds and some hailers. I'm actually pretty impressed with the wind profile tomorrow b/c not only do we have an inverted-v look on the soundings but winds aloft are pretty strong. Unfortunately we'll mix down drier air mixing dews down a bit and lessening the instability potential, however, the cold pool is pretty impressive and with steep lapse rates the instability in the 3-6km range should be pretty sufficient. Also, hodos have a decent curved look to them so this could make way for the potential for maybe a couple 1''+ hail reports...actually perhaps couldn't rule out some storms trying to get stronger mesos going but lack of instability should prevent much from occurring...if we had stronger instability that could certainly be different. Not enough instability for any large hail. Strong gusty winds main threat, and maybe some small hail only because of the low freezing height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Dewpoint depressions decrease with height.. = evap cooling and momentum transfer and acceleration Twds surface. layman= damage in your own words plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Looks like best chance is ern NY and Berks. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Not enough instability for any large hail. Strong gusty winds main threat, and maybe some small hail only because of the low freezing height. There were plenty of times back in 2008 we had instability at or slightly less than 1000 J/KG and still was able to generate some larger hail. Normally that would be the case but there should be some pretty intense updrafts tomorrow given degree of shear values and also potential for turning winds with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Looks like best chance is ern NY and Berks. Shocking. yeah 18z GFS kind of suggests that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 There were plenty of times back in 2008 we had instability at or slightly less than 1000 J/KG and still was able to generate some larger hail. Normally that would be the case but there should be some pretty intense updrafts tomorrow given degree of shear values and also potential for turning winds with height. Yeah but we're talking like <500 J/KG tomorrow. I agree on the small hail and gusty winds, but I was just looking at the NAM sounding for Hartford tomorrow and nothing about it looks like large hail to me. In fact almost looks more like strong gusty showers or a fine line sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Threat is right to the SE coast. This is regionwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 The 4km BTV WRF has a pretty nice squall line/MCS feature, could argue a bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 We bow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Yeah but we're talking like <500 J/KG tomorrow. I agree on the small hail and gusty winds, but I was just looking at the NAM sounding for Hartford tomorrow and nothing about it looks like large hail to me. In fact almost looks more like strong gusty showers or a fine line sounding. I wouldn't expect any large hail reports...but wouldn't be surprised if we saw one or two. But I agree...small hailers and gusty winds will be way more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 The 4km BTV WRF has a pretty nice squall line/MCS feature, could argue a bow. damn...I have class 2:30 until 3:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Can see why we banged so hard last nite about when constant flashes woke me up, thought there was a cop in the road, distant flashes strobe like. One of the best warm frontal off LIS nocturnal storms in many a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 We bowin your own words please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Dewpoint depressions decrease with height.. = evap cooling and momentum transfer and acceleration Twds surface. layman= damage Dewpoint depressions decreasing with height is fairly standard, no? Isn't that why clouds form in the sky and not at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Dewpoint depressions decreasing with height is fairly standard, no? Isn't that why clouds form in the sky and not at the surface? TTs in the mid 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Dewpoint depression is just the difference between the 2M dew (or sfc) and the dew just at any level aloft...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Dewpoint depression is just the difference between the 2M dew (or sfc) and the dew just at any level aloft...I think.no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 no LOL Temperature and dewpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 LOL Temperature and dewpoint The dew point depression (T-Td) is the difference between the temperature and dew point temperature at a certain height in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The dew point depression (T-Td) is the difference between the temperature and dew point temperature at a certain height in the atmosphere. I have no clue why I said dew in my original post...too much dew on the mind I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I deserve a gold smack in the penis for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I deserve a gold smack in the penis for thatgold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 gold? Good. I can't stand typing on phones. Man..I've had way too much Family Guy and Trailer Park Boys on my mind lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Wiz, you really need to update your sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Not a fan of these seasonal forecasts but looks like another nice chamber summer...I'm assuming blue is cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Wiz, you really need to update your sig What needs to be updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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