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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Oh boy, already calling for quiet hurricane season. If we stay cool with low severe probs the model thread will be crickets until November. lol

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

 

Dr ...frick and frack from Florida ...college,...  did a statistical paper that demonstrated how active hurricane seasons tend to lead +NAO winters...   

 

I haven't frankly seen that be really true since I saw him back in 2004 or 2005 at NWS' conference down in Milford, but at the time the work appeared clad to me.  The reason, physically, it was proposed ...is that increased frequency of autumn/late autumn latent heat dump into the SPV of the N/W Atlantic Basin causes the vortex to become dominant, and powerful.  And that imposes negative height anomalies into the NAO domain space.  Negative height anomalies into the NAO domain space == +NAO.  

 

I have seen this work out, and not work out, in the winter since then, however. But of course, there are other contributing factors to NAO tendencies, so if those others are perhaps influencing the index in an opposing why, any such correlation proposed by Dr. frick and frack might get lost in the maelstrom/noise.  

 

Just saying ... and that maybe if you sac one entertainment source, the other troop jumps on stage with the better show.   

 

Or not... with our luck, 'cane compensatory forces with mute the season, and then those other NAO influences will instruct the no winter phase state... 

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Sounds like a beautiful spring weekend in Boston

 

Very well modeled for a long while, too -   

 

We knew we had to weather this last week.. It was snowing at times through Thursday morning and just otherwise ...pretty much 0 redeeming qualities, whatsoever.  Late yesterday afternoon a diffused warm frontal passage heralded what could very well be the end of it until next November ...though of course, we could have transient crapolas...  Nothing as pervasive and/or as cold/freezing/frozen looks very plausible in the general... 

 

Yesterday warm front was another incremental ...and long awaited seasonal recovery event.  

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No warmth up here today. 45F and overcast with a howling wind. I look at the mesomap and see sunny upper 50s in SNE and shed a little tear inside.

42F and overcast.  Looking south see more and more breaks and then clear on the south horizon.  Losing recent snowcover on south lawns expect a couple dozen deer this evening.  Still about 75% snowcovered in general 230pm

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42F and overcast.  Looking south see more and more breaks and then clear on the south horizon.  Losing recent snowcover on south lawns expect a couple dozen deer this evening.  Still about 75% snowcovered in general 230pm

Yeah...starting to get more "blue" overhead, but we seem to be conveniently dodging the breaks. Still mostly snow covered here away from the buildings and trees. I haven't measured in a few days though. It can't be more than a few inches in the thickest spots.
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