Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I agree about not going totally with models are saying with how much snow they showing. Given that we're warmer, plus if it snows during the daytime, you have to get high snowfall rates to get roads totally snow covered. Yeh, it will be slick, but not sure how significant this event will be. Definitely will be monitoring things now. Then I saw the Canadian for next week. Kind of started to laugh at the snowfall map. But this is the window to get some more snow. So, we'll see how this plays out. but oh canada has done well this year, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 12Z euro. Lots of precip but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Any change on Euro from 0z? Edit: Nevermind! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 GFS snow looks overdone given the warmish boundary layer. If its overdone on the warmish boundary layer then, of course, maybe not. Euro thermals actually looks pretty similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Glenn at 4:25.....looks fair for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I like where I am sitting for this storm, it looks like I have a chance to break 60" for the second year in a row. (the elevation should be enough to make the white rain phenomenon not hurt too much here, and the location looks good on the models as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 18z GFS is snowy. So is the RGEM. Looks like this is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 local tv, 3-6" for central mont/bucks and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Looks like the 18Z GFS came in with more precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 rgem snowfall thru hr 48. It should precip for at least another 6 hrs if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Congrat Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm trying to figure out what this equals to - Thursday Night A chance of snow after 2am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 24. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. FRIDAY - Snow likely before 2pm, then rain and snow between 2pm and 3pm, then rain after 3pm. High near 37. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Night Rain and snow before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Low around 30. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Looking at the snow maps I guess 2-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I like what mt holly has right now for a forecast map. these model snowfall maps are all going to be way overdone. besides elevated areas, ratio's are going to be bad and for most areas melting is going to be an issue during the day with the borderline surface temps and mid-march sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I like what mt holly has right now for a forecast map. these model snowfall maps are all going to be way overdone. besides elevated areas, ratio's are going to be bad and for most areas melting is going to be an issue during the day with the borderline surface temps and mid-march sun. . StormTotalSnowRange.png You read mind completely w/your points. If it would fall completely overnight....maybe some fun. As of now, horrible timing, bad ratios, basically it will start to melt once it lets up. Then they'll wing down more salt for nothing and then melt away Saturday as I drag salt inside car/house. Complete slop setup....rather have a couple heavy T-storms to wash stuff away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 You read mind completely w/your points. If it would fall completely overnight....maybe some fun. As of now, horrible timing, bad ratios, basically it will start to melt once it lets up. Then they'll wing down more salt for nothing and then melt away Saturday as I drag salt inside car/house. Complete slop setup....rather have a couple heavy T-storms to wash stuff away. It wouldn't be fun at all for me if it fell at night. I like to see the snow. I really don't want any more accumulating snow. As it is, if it's snowing the schools around here will probably have an early dismissal even if roads are clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I am thinking 2-4 for Upper Montco, because I do believe the models are overdone. Snow falling during the day, in mid march, with borderline temperatures will lead to less accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Philly JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 But is a 10:1 ratio at all realistic for the kind of wet snow this looks certain to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Philly JP nam3-19-00Z.png And all the way to the coast? You can't really believe this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 But is a 10:1 ratio at all realistic for the kind of wet snow this looks certain to be? I just post maps and let Ray answer those types of questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 But is a 10:1 ratio at all realistic for the kind of wet snow this looks certain to be? No...7-8:1 at best which melts/compacts when it hits the ground once 8-9+am arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 NAM soundings look like they could support 10:1 (as opposed to GFS soundings, which definitely DON'T support 10:1). This assumes that its starts as snow and there isn't enough insolation to prevent melting. The former could happen... the latter, maybe not. Probably best to assume a bit below 10:1, but maybe not far below *if* the NAM soundings are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Rates look like they will be good on friday. April 2003 snow had no problem accumulating 6" including pavement mid day and the ground now is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 0Z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 0z GFS is .75-.90" QPF of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 6-9" most of SEPA and 4-6" Philly where it changes to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS shows my biggest snow of the winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Quiet here did the internet die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Quiet here did the internet die?Lol...Too many LATE season turncoats.. Bring it on!!!!! My trip to NH and Vermont next week should be perfect!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Quiet here did the internet die? I think a lot of people gave up on winter and haven't heard of this storm. There's going to be a lot of surprised people come Friday haha. Also, I feel very good about this event. The models keep trending colder and wetter as we get closer; good signs. I like an area wide 3-6" for areas north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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