Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

2015 Spring/Summer Banter & complaint thread


dmc76

Recommended Posts

It's getting pretty ridiculous at this point. Complaints about crapvection ring hollow when we can't even manage anything that exciting. Finally frontal timing looked pretty good, but once again we're screwed over by stratiform rain.

 

if it's any consolation, my life is great, babes, bucks, boomers, I got it all!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 652
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Maybe way up there, but for most of the metro we have already received .5-1.00 with even more near the border.

I'm fed up with this pattern it's nothing but clouds and very light rain for the last several days. Everything for the most part missed this area. Tonight looks like another tease.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm fed up with this pattern it's nothing but clouds and very light rain for the last several days. Everything for the most part missed this area. Tonight looks like another tease.

Again for you maybe, but for the majority of the metro area naso much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

e3b125d06334ea44767f4e0fbd7f4991.jpg

Sent from my iPhone

You're obviously assuming those will hold together and make it all the way over here? To me it looks like some of that as we speak is losing punch as it crosses Lake Michigan and I don't see any of that in Indiana making it this far north (94 corridor) to be honest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're obviously assuming those will hold together and make it all the way over here? To me it looks like some of that as we speak is losing punch as it crosses Lake Michigan and I don't see any of that in Indiana making it this far north (94 corridor) to be honest.

Your reasoning makes no sense though, the mean flow says that the stuff in IN should be moving this way and the stuff to the north is slowly sagging south. The LLJ is progged to move into the area tonight which if anything should maintain or increase convection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're obviously assuming those will hold together and make it all the way over here? To me it looks like some of that as we speak is losing punch as it crosses Lake Michigan and I don't see any of that in Indiana making it this far north (94 corridor) to be honest.

1. There's plenty of instability over MI. LI's up to -6. Cape between 1000-1500. Bulk shear of 30-40 knots. PWAT's over 2. And with the addition of LLJ in the SE corner of MI (per DTX AFD) the storms will only continue to blossom and congeal. There's no way this will lose punch. I dont think there will be widespread severe, but drenching rain is almost certain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. There's plenty of instability over MI. LI's up to -6. Cape between 1000-1500. Bulk shear of 30-40 knots. PWAT's over 2. And with the addition of LLJ in the SE corner of MI (per DTX AFD) the storms will only continue to blossom and congeal. There's no way this will lose punch. I dont think there will be widespread severe, but drenching rain is almost certain. 

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your reasoning makes no sense though, the mean flow says that the stuff in IN should be moving this way and the stuff to the north is slowly sagging south. The LLJ is progged to move into the area tonight which if anything should maintain or increase convection.

Do you think with the cold front moving south would insure that cluster in NW Indiana to stay south or along the state-line?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do you think with the cold front moving south would insure that cluster in NW Indiana to stay south or along the state-line?

Cold front isn't moving south fast enough keep the rain shield south of the border. Most of the metro area should see heavy rain tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your reasoning makes no sense though, the mean flow says that the stuff in IN should be moving this way and the stuff to the north is slowly sagging south. The LLJ is progged to move into the area tonight which if anything should maintain or increase convection.

 

The LLJ can help to expand the rain shield our direction, but the stronger storms (which is what I think dmc76 is concerned about) will stay in OH/IN with the better instability. 

 

And yes, the LLJ COULD also help to ignite new convection, but it won't be nearly as intense/widespread as the convection to the south, where the best theta-e advection and convergence lies...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm fed up with this pattern it's nothing but clouds and very light rain for the last several days. Everything for the most part missed this area. Tonight looks like another tease.

 

Honestly, you haven't missed much.

 

The only part of our area that's seen any formidable convection (not including the Ann Arbor flood yesterday) is Lenawee and Monroe Counties. Otherwise, it's just been garden variety stuff at best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...