michsnowfreak Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Severe weather is just too hit and miss here. I really hope you severe nuts can get some good ones this summer, If i could i would gladly sacrifice a storm for you, as I can take them or leave them. Though I can't say I hope you get your wish for the heatwave, powerball. The last two summers have been AMAZINGLY pleasant (with the Autumn-like days to end July the last 2 years an additional bonus)....and another one would be very welcomed by me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 For the Michigan guys, Don S mentioned June 1997 being a possible analog with the amplitude of the MJO and the progged -PNA. We know what happened when the calendar flipped to July...or at least you should if you're into severe weather. Will be interesting to see how the upcoming period turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Definitely been a total snoozefest ; thunderstorm speaking, since April 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 For the Michigan guys, Don S mentioned June 1997 being a possible analog with the amplitude of the MJO and the progged -PNA. We know what happened when the calendar flipped to July...or at least you should if you're into severe weather. Will be interesting to see how the upcoming period turns out. I'm legitimately impressed with the next several weeks. Strong spring-like jet overtop summer heat and humidity - someone's going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 The morning/early afternoon cloud cover may have worked out to our benefit. Dewpoints have actualy pulled up into the mid 60s with a decent CU field developing to the NW. Could still hit 80*F also after sitting in the upper 60/low 70s through the early afternoon hours. And of course, same ****/different day with the screw jobs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 I'm legitimately impressed with the next several weeks. Strong spring-like jet overtop summer heat and humidity - someone's going to get hammered. Of course, the seasonal trends with these events so far (not in our favor) can't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 For the Michigan guys, Don S mentioned June 1997 being a possible analog with the amplitude of the MJO and the progged -PNA. We know what happened when the calendar flipped to July...or at least you should if you're into severe weather. Will be interesting to see how the upcoming period turns out. Considering I was living within viewing distance of an F2 tornado (had it not been rain wrapped) and got blasted with 80-90 MPH straight line winds and 1" hail, it is certainly a day I won't forget. Very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 The quest for thunder and lightning continues: even today's decent looking returns were mostly pounding rains with little thunder, lightning or hail. Parents reported thunder at home, but none that I could detect in Bayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 perfect look, can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 perfect look, can't wait I actually would be interested in this just because of the novelty of this being remnants of a Pacific hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 CAn't buy a decent severe weather event for **** and can't buy a heatwave for ****. If this is going to be the rule for the Summer, then let's just skip to Summer 2016... It's not really our year for severe weather it seems. I've mostly abandoned my weather hobby until something interesting comes our way. Sent from my iPhone These two entries sum up how I'm feeling so far about late Spring and the start of summer '15. Its the 3rd worst climo if I were to guess the ranking of this boring ****. I need a heatwave, and not one that lasts 1 or 2 days, oh no. Sure its uncomfortable when not being cooled by a machine but its worth it since major depression is worse. Today was a classic Southern Ontario hype event right down to EC on the phone with CP24 Toronto early afternoon saying everyone will be impacted today. Oh someone needs to upload that clip to YouTube and then have a radar loop of today afterwards . They didn't check which year it was, its not 1987 where every other day had some big severe event (this is tongue in cheek). Instead if your not in cottage country or eastern Ontario, expect either light showers with thunder or nothing bcuz 2015 . Again I had mostly clear skies and no storms and even more insane, the temperature didn't even get that high and it felt cold!! Storms that form are always to the SE too, lame. The morning action was the only bone thrown, and that was just some rumbling thunder...also the predictable eastern Ontario storms were in place with Toronto getting some; my bet of at least 1 tornado somewhere was a good one as there was a pic of a low funnel like cloud that might have been on the ground. This talk about July 1997, what day is being referred to? I remember a lot of storms that summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 This talk about July 1997, what day is being referred to? I remember a lot of storms that summer. Detroit's tornado outbreak. In any event, that setup was the exception and not the rule. Traditionally, at this longtiude and latitude (and being surrounded by the cooler lakes), our more profilic severe weather events came during or after a prolonged heat wave, which is something we haven't had yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Will we miss out on yet another severe event? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Will we miss out on yet another severe event? Stay tuned. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Two rumbles of thunder and no lightning spotted since April 10th: the joys of spring/early summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Well well here we are again - we have yet to have a thunderstorm locally. Warm front fails = 4 to date. Forecast busts due to warm front fails = too many to count. The best part? This stationary front doesn't look to be going anywhere (except for a bit further south between I-80 and I-70) for the next 7 days. Gotta love the cold Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 There's a slight risk Sunday,dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 There's a slight risk Sunday,dude. I'm keeping hope! But not holding my breath in this pattern. You included on this end, it's been a near miss for both of us several times. I think it was yesterday someone had mentioned Lower Michigan's best outbreaks/good storms happen at the beginning or end of a heatwave. I got thinking about that, and it's true. I can't ever really remember a time that this pattern produced in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Ugly summer so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 SEMI crew is desperate for some action... sounds like my last date. I can't remember a dry spell with this much action predicted only to see it all fall through, err, all fall south of I-80. I do suppose this is only mid-June so we have some time, but I'm definitely itchin for some storms. (I wanna see some action while we still have Alek in non-Zzzz mode . Love the optimism lately.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Last year, the severe wx really didn't get going for us until late into the season. September was the most active month here locally. I feel we're just getting off to a slow start again this year. Hopefully not quite as long as last year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 SEMI crew is desperate for some action... sounds like my last date. I can't remember a dry spell with this much action predicted only to see it all fall through, err, all fall south of I-80. I do suppose this is only mid-June so we have some time, but I'm definitely itchin for some storms. (I wanna see some action while we still have Alek in non-Zzzz mode . Love the optimism lately.) We definitely have time for sure. Climatologically speaking, our most favorable time for severe weather is actually late June/early July. And in the last 10 years or so, it's been late July and August that have been most active in terms of severe weather. But it's also the trends thus far that are frustrating. 1. The lakes are still struggling to warm up and are well below average in temps-to-date (because we've had virtually no really warm/hot days) which in effect translates to stronger stable layers/caps when we do finally get systems to come through with favorable ingredients/timing. 2. All of the rain in the Plains and Ohio Valley will limit the extent in which quality EMLs (elevated mixed layers) advect NE into our backyard, which will make it difficult for sufficient instability to develop for severe t'storms. Neither of the aforementioned bodes particularly well going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Last year, the severe wx really didn't get going for us until late into the season. September was the most active month here locally. We actually didn't have a whole lot of action in September. There were the one significant event on 9/5/15 and the marginal (mainly downriver) event on 9/20/15, but otherwise there was only 3 days with thunder. September 2014 was slightly cooler than normal overall in fact. But you're right in that things didn't get started until the 2nd half of Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I appreciate the write-up Powerball. Definitely makes sense regarding the temps in Lake Michigan. I wonder if the relatively higher water levels play a part in heat capacity of the water. I know the eastern lakes are up quite a bit. So to sum it up, our best bet on severe will be systems lifting directly north from the Ohio Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Well well here we are again - we have yet to have a thunderstorm locally. Warm front fails = 4 to date. Forecast busts due to warm front fails = too many to count. The best part? This stationary front doesn't look to be going anywhere (except for a bit further south between I-80 and I-70) for the next 7 days. Gotta love the cold Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Lol spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I'm ready to toss this year and hobby in the garbage. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Is that 850 mb temps of 0C showing up in southeastern Canada on the 00z Euro at 192? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 It's getting pretty ridiculous at this point. Complaints about crapvection ring hollow when we can't even manage anything that exciting. Finally frontal timing looked pretty good, but once again we're screwed over by stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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