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2015 Spring/Summer Banter & complaint thread


dmc76

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Severe weather is just too hit and miss here. I really hope you severe nuts can get some good ones this summer, If i could i would gladly sacrifice a storm for you, as I can take them or leave them. Though I can't say I hope you get your wish for the heatwave, powerball. The last two summers have been AMAZINGLY pleasant (with the Autumn-like days to end July the last 2 years an additional bonus)....and another one would be very welcomed by me!

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For the Michigan guys, Don S mentioned June 1997 being a possible analog with the amplitude of the MJO and the progged -PNA.  We know what happened when the calendar flipped to July...or at least you should if you're into severe weather.  Will be interesting to see how the upcoming period turns out.

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For the Michigan guys, Don S mentioned June 1997 being a possible analog with the amplitude of the MJO and the progged -PNA. We know what happened when the calendar flipped to July...or at least you should if you're into severe weather. Will be interesting to see how the upcoming period turns out.

I'm legitimately impressed with the next several weeks. Strong spring-like jet overtop summer heat and humidity - someone's going to get hammered.

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The morning/early afternoon cloud cover may have worked out to our benefit. Dewpoints have actualy pulled up into the mid 60s with a decent CU field developing to the NW. Could still hit 80*F also after sitting in the upper 60/low 70s through the early afternoon hours.

 

And of course, same ****/different day with the screw jobs...

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I'm legitimately impressed with the next several weeks. Strong spring-like jet overtop summer heat and humidity - someone's going to get hammered.

 

Of course, the seasonal trends with these events so far (not in our favor) can't be denied.

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For the Michigan guys, Don S mentioned June 1997 being a possible analog with the amplitude of the MJO and the progged -PNA.  We know what happened when the calendar flipped to July...or at least you should if you're into severe weather.  Will be interesting to see how the upcoming period turns out.

Considering I was living within viewing distance of an F2 tornado (had it not been rain wrapped) and got blasted with 80-90 MPH straight line winds and 1" hail, it is certainly a day I won't forget. Very close call.

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CAn't buy a decent severe weather event for **** and can't buy a heatwave for ****.

 

If this is going to be the rule for the Summer, then let's just skip to Summer 2016...

 

It's not really our year for severe weather it seems. I've mostly abandoned my weather hobby until something interesting comes our way.

Sent from my iPhone

 

These two entries sum up how I'm feeling so far about late Spring and the start of summer '15. Its the 3rd worst climo if I were to guess the ranking of this boring ****. I need a heatwave, and not one that lasts 1 or 2 days, oh no. Sure its uncomfortable when not being cooled by a machine but its worth it since major depression is worse.

 

Today was a classic Southern Ontario hype event right down to EC on the phone with CP24 Toronto early afternoon saying everyone will be impacted today.

 

Oh someone needs to upload that clip to YouTube and then have a radar loop of today afterwards  :cory: . They didn't check which year it was, its not 1987 where every other day had some big severe event (this is tongue in cheek). Instead if your not in cottage country or eastern Ontario, expect either light showers with thunder or nothing bcuz 2015 :thumbsdown: . Again I had mostly clear skies and no storms and even more insane, the temperature didn't even get that high and it felt cold!! Storms that form are always to the SE too, lame. The morning action was the only bone thrown, and that was just some rumbling thunder...also the predictable eastern Ontario storms were in place with Toronto getting some; my bet of at least 1 tornado somewhere was a good one as there was a pic of a low funnel like cloud that might have been on the ground.

 

This talk about July 1997, what day is being referred to? I remember a lot of storms that summer.

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This talk about July 1997, what day is being referred to? I remember a lot of storms that summer.

Detroit's tornado outbreak.

In any event, that setup was the exception and not the rule. Traditionally, at this longtiude and latitude (and being surrounded by the cooler lakes), our more profilic severe weather events came during or after a prolonged heat wave, which is something we haven't had yet.

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Well well here we are again - we have yet to have a thunderstorm locally. Warm front fails = 4 to date. Forecast busts due to warm front fails = too many to count.

The best part? This stationary front doesn't look to be going anywhere (except for a bit further south between I-80 and I-70) for the next 7 days. Gotta love the cold Great Lakes.

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There's a slight risk Sunday,dude.

I'm keeping hope! But not holding my breath in this pattern. You included on this end, it's been a near miss for both of us several times.

I think it was yesterday someone had mentioned Lower Michigan's best outbreaks/good storms happen at the beginning or end of a heatwave. I got thinking about that, and it's true. I can't ever really remember a time that this pattern produced in these parts.

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SEMI crew is desperate for some action... sounds like my last date.

I can't remember a dry spell with this much action predicted only to see it all fall through, err, all fall south of I-80. I do suppose this is only mid-June so we have some time, but I'm definitely itchin for some storms.

(I wanna see some action while we still have Alek in non-Zzzz mode :P. Love the optimism lately.)

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Last year, the severe wx really didn't get going for us until late into the season. September was the most active month here locally.

I feel we're just getting off to a slow start again this year. Hopefully not quite as long as last year.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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SEMI crew is desperate for some action... sounds like my last date.

I can't remember a dry spell with this much action predicted only to see it all fall through, err, all fall south of I-80. I do suppose this is only mid-June so we have some time, but I'm definitely itchin for some storms.

(I wanna see some action while we still have Alek in non-Zzzz mode :P. Love the optimism lately.)

 

We definitely have time for sure.

 

Climatologically speaking, our most favorable time for severe weather is actually late June/early July. And in the last 10 years or so, it's been late July and August that have been most active in terms of severe weather.

 

But it's also the trends thus far that are frustrating.

 

1. The lakes are still struggling to warm up and are well below average in temps-to-date (because we've had virtually no really warm/hot days) which in effect translates to stronger stable layers/caps when we do finally get systems to come through with favorable ingredients/timing.

 

2. All of the rain in the Plains and Ohio Valley will limit the extent in which quality EMLs (elevated mixed layers) advect NE into our backyard, which will make it difficult for sufficient instability to develop for severe t'storms.

 

Neither of the aforementioned bodes particularly well going forward.

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Last year, the severe wx really didn't get going for us until late into the season. September was the most active month here locally.

 

We actually didn't have a whole lot of action in September. There were the one significant event on 9/5/15 and the marginal (mainly downriver) event on 9/20/15, but otherwise there was only 3 days with thunder. September 2014 was slightly cooler than normal overall in fact.

 

But you're right in that things didn't get started until the 2nd half of Summer. 

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I appreciate the write-up Powerball. Definitely makes sense regarding the temps in Lake Michigan. I wonder if the relatively higher water levels play a part in heat capacity of the water. I know the eastern lakes are up quite a bit.

So to sum it up, our best bet on severe will be systems lifting directly north from the Ohio Valley?

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Well well here we are again - we have yet to have a thunderstorm locally. Warm front fails = 4 to date. Forecast busts due to warm front fails = too many to count.

The best part? This stationary front doesn't look to be going anywhere (except for a bit further south between I-80 and I-70) for the next 7 days. Gotta love the cold Great Lakes.

 

:whistle:

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