IWXwx Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 IWX: I'm probably one of the few that post in this subforum that was around for Palm Sunday and the Super Outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I would love just to have a solid t'storm at this point. HAven't had one since April 9th (and have missed them in every single direction since then). Same here, it had been over a month since I'd heard thunder and we finally got a garden variety storm through Milwaukee this afternoon. My standards for t'storms are not that high (not nearly as high as snowstorms, where I tend to have the go big or go home philosophy). Last summer was full of garden variety storms and between that and the lack of heat, I loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 IWX: IWX Tornadoes.png I'm probably one of the few that post in this subforum that was around for Palm Sunday and the Super Outbreak. I know Indystorm was as well...that might be about it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I know Indystorm was as well...that might be about it though. Almost---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I have been getting a little amusement from many of the chasers over on Stormtrack complaining about an abundance of the rain wrapped tornadoes in HP storms this year out in the Plains. Those of us in the Midwest say, "Welcome to our world". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Unless something decent shows up in June this is gonna be my worst chase season since I started in 2006, which is pretty bad considering how bad the last few have been. Have nothing to show for this season yet, as the only chance I've had to get out there was Apr 9th, which we failed at. Every setup this season so far has been in the southern Plains, or the western high plains, and that combined with other commitments including work have screwed me up to this point. Think it's about time to take my avatar down and put in a pic of me stuck at work, or some party lol. /rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Unless something decent shows up in June this is gonna be my worst chase season since I started in 2006, which is pretty bad considering how bad the last few have been. Have nothing to show for this season yet, as the only chance I've had to get out there was Apr 9th, which we failed at. Every setup this season so far has been in the southern Plains, or the western high plains, and that combined with other commitments including work have screwed me up to this point. Think it's about time to take my avatar down and put in a pic of me stuck at work, or some party lol. /rant. I just saw a post over on Stormtrack proclaiming severe season cancel, similar to the winter cancel proclamations seen here annually. I wouldn't give up yet if I were you. The chances will come farther east and north in June, although I don't think the south and west Plains are done yet. I just hope for you that when it happens, your work schedule cooperates. EDIT: Hopefully someone with more knowledge than myself will chime in, but wouldn't el Nino lead to more active weather, especially west of the Mississippi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 I just saw a post over on Stormtrack proclaiming severe season cancel, similar to the winter cancel proclamations seen here annually. I wouldn't give up yet if I were you. The chances will come farther east and north in June, although I don't think the south and west Plains are done yet. I just hope for you that when it happens, your work schedule cooperates. EDIT: Hopefully someone with more knowledge than myself will chime in, but wouldn't el Nino lead to more active weather, especially west of the Mississippi? El Nino do tend to have more active periods in late May and June compared to normal, though it is often focused in the plains. I do think there are some potentials during the week though I am not sure how significant yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 In addition to the El Nino and the persistent PV placement, all of the damn rain in OK/TX probably guarantees another average to cooler than average Summer for majority of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 In addition to the El Nino and the PV refusing to die, all of the damn rain in OK/TX probably guarantees another average to cooler than average Summer for majority of the subforum. As long as it gets active, I'm fine with cooler than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 As long as it gets active, I'm fine with cooler than average. IT depends on how you define "active." It's harder (though not impossible) to get much severe weather in an overall cooler pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 IT depends on how you define "active." It's harder (though not impossible) to get much severe weather in an overall cooler pattern. I would argue that it is harder with a hot pattern because you end up under the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 I would argue that it is harder with a hot pattern because you end up under the ridge. I'd rather deal with that potential impediment. At least when the shortwaves do eventually break through the ridge, there will be no concerns about the instability/moisture levels (unless we're in a drought). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 I would argue that it is harder with a hot pattern because you end up under the ridge. I agree. And the fact is that the overall pattern doesn't really matter because all you need is one good day to get an epic severe weather outbreak. The 1997 season was extremely quiet except for one day which had the largest tornado outbreak in Michigan's history. I doubt we're going to be cool or hot. Warmish, maybe. I think we're already getting a good taste of our summer pattern right now, and it's definitely warm, but not extreme. Detroit has yet to touch 90 even though it's +5F for month so far. In fact, the current pattern of slightly above normal warmth coupled with plenty of humidity could yield some decent severe days here and there. The northern stream has been prominent enough so far to provide us with regular cold front sweeping through these airmasses. The only problem is upstream EML generation is probably going to suffer since we're turning the plains into a lake. It's not a recipe for a good year, but it's not a lost cause either. I don't think there's any chance we end up with a legitimately cool summer unless this stuff coming out of Oklahoma starts holding together and we start getting a bunch of rain. Not only that, but the cold pattern of the last 2+ years is unequivocally dead. It's going to be hard to get a cool summer with neverending southwest flow around the Bermuda high which should extend well into the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 1997, while definitely one of my favorite events of course is sort of an exception to the rule. Traditionally, our more prolific severe weather outbreaks during the late Spring/Summer (May 2004, July 2012, July 1995, 1998, July 1991, etc.) occurred when our region was under the influence of a death ridge. Not saying it hasn't or can't happen, but because of our longitude and latitude, it's much harder to get severe weather outbreaks without an extended period of heat preceeding it (since we're surrounded by the cooler lake waters and we don't get the extreme advection winds that the Plains states get). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 1997, while definitely one of my favorite events of course is sort of an exception to the rule. Traditionally, our more prolific severe weather outbreaks during the late Spring/Summer (May 2004, July 2012, July 1995, 1998, July 1991, etc.) occurred when our region was under the influence of a death ridge. Not saying it hasn't or can't happen, but because of our longitude and latitude, it's much harder to get severe weather outbreaks without an extended period of heat preceeding it (since we're surrounded by the cooler lake waters and we don't get the extreme advection winds that the Plains states get). May 2004 was a death ridge? I know it's a bit IMBY, but that was one of the cooler and stormier summers we've had in recent years, hard to believe it could be considered a death ridge a bit east of here in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 May 2004 was a death ridge? I know it's a bit IMBY, but that was one of the cooler and stormier summers we've had in recent years, hard to believe it could be considered a death ridge a bit east of here in Detroit. Below are the maps from 5/20/04 (granted, it was centered further south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 I don't think I've even heard thunder in 2-3 weeks. It has just been a series of mostly minor stratiform remants of plains storm complexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Getting a few nice downpours this morning. Up to 0.19". Should get some nice storms later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Getting a few nice downpours this morning. Up to 0.19". Should get some nice storms later this afternoon. Oops. I meant to post this in the May general thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 1997, while definitely one of my favorite events of course is sort of an exception to the rule. Traditionally, our more prolific severe weather outbreaks during the late Spring/Summer (May 2004, July 2012, July 1995, 1998, July 1991, etc.) occurred when our region was under the influence of a death ridge. Not saying it hasn't or can't happen, but because of our longitude and latitude, it's much harder to get severe weather outbreaks without an extended period of heat preceeding it (since we're surrounded by the cooler lake waters and we don't get the extreme advection winds that the Plains states get). May 2004 was one of my favorite weather months ever. Endless big thunderstorms rolling through. 1995 and 1998 were awesome too, even though I was kinda young to enjoy it on a meteorological level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 May 2004 was a death ridge? I know it's a bit IMBY, but that was one of the cooler and stormier summers we've had in recent years, hard to believe it could be considered a death ridge a bit east of here in Detroit. 2004 was a cool summer here, but May was slightly warmer than normal & one of the stormiest months Ive seen, locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 2004 was a cool summer here, but May was slightly warmer than normal & one of the stormiest months Ive seen, locally. Yeah, 2004 was very cool. It's funny because during the early spring there were a few really warm days that made it seem like it was going to be a hot summer, but I didn't have air conditioning at my place that year and I didn't even mind it was so cool most of the time. Most summers, that would be almost unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 An interesting observation from Michael Skipper at IWX in this morning's long term discussion: ALSO...SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TEND TOINTERCEPT MOISTURE FLUX AND LIMIT VERY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORTNORTH. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS HASHAD ASTOUNDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...WITH OKLAHOMA CITYAPPROACHING 20 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH...WELL ABOVE THERECORD RAINFALL FOR ANY MONTH IN THIS CITY. WITH SO MUCH RECENT RAINUPSTREAM... THERE WILL LIKELY BE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE AS REFLECTEDIN RESEARCH AS WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1993 FLOODS. KEPT THESE FACTORSIN MIND WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 An interesting observation from Michael Skipper at IWX in this morning's long term discussion: ALSO...SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TEND TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE FLUX AND LIMIT VERY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS HAS HAD ASTOUNDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...WITH OKLAHOMA CITY APPROACHING 20 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH...WELL ABOVE THE RECORD RAINFALL FOR ANY MONTH IN THIS CITY. WITH SO MUCH RECENT RAIN UPSTREAM... THERE WILL LIKELY BE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE AS REFLECTED IN RESEARCH AS WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1993 FLOODS. KEPT THESE FACTORS IN MIND WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. Yeah it is getting into positive feedback down there with the amount of rain. It would also help with moisture transport northward once we get into our severe season up here. Case in point all the mid to upper 60 dew points already, we usually don't start having that regularly until next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Yeah it is getting into positive feedback down there with the amount of rain. It would also help with moisture transport northward once we get into our severe season up here. Case in point all the mid to upper 60 dew points already, we usually don't start having that regularly until next month. Would also help to get setups with better mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Yeah, 2004 was very cool. It's funny because during the early spring there were a few really warm days that made it seem like it was going to be a hot summer, but I didn't have air conditioning at my place that year and I didn't even mind it was so cool most of the time. Most summers, that would be almost unbearable.2000, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2013, & 2014 were all very pleasant summers with the A.C. needs way down from average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Would also help to get setups with better mid level lapse rates.My understanding is that an atmosphere with a higher water content, unless temps aloft are extremely cold or near surface temps are hot, would lead to poor (I.E moist adiabetic) lapse rates, which is not conducive for strong convection other than those that produce torrential downpours.So it's a matter of picking your poison at this longtiude/latitude. With a few exceptions, it's hard to get severe weather outbreaks without a consistently hot pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Would also help to get setups with better mid level lapse rates. Hopefully that will come in time as the jet lifts north and we can advect in an EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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