on_wx Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Wonder how 2015 compares to other years in terms of storms for SEMI/SW Ontario. Slim pickings around here, definitely one of the worst, if not the worst, years I can remember. Eastern Ontario has had no shortage of storms, but back this way it's been highly localized nickel and dime days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 If we could have one good outbreak, I would be happy. One that doesn't get screwed up by a morning MCS I still think 6/22 was a nice hit for Michigan, but man, I can only wonder what would have happened had that MCS not moved across the state from 1-4 p.m. I was right on the Birch Run-Millington storm, but completely lost it after sunset. Of course, it was also somewhat rain-wrapped, so that would have been a complicating factor regardless of the time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Wonder how 2015 compares to other years in terms of storms for SEMI/SW Ontario. Slim pickings around here, definitely one of the worst, if not the worst, years I can remember. Eastern Ontario has had no shortage of storms, but back this way it's been highly localized nickel and dime days. Well, in terms of warnings, here's how many DTX has issued from January 1st through July 21st, from 2006 to 2015, according to the IEM archive: 2006: 127 2007: 88 2008: 129 2009: 40 2010: 79 2011: 104 2012: 100 2013: 96 2014: 49 2015: 45 So, it's clear that the last two years have been particularly dire, though we did get a nice late pop last year to finish with 112 warnings on the entire season. On a personal level, this year has been the worst I can ever remember, with just one warning IMBY. I also saw a nice wall cloud in Saginaw County on June 22nd, but that obviously took a 200-mile round trip (and was also frustrating because I later missed out on the EF-2 that that storm produced). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Well, in terms of warnings, here's how many DTX has issued from January 1st through July 21st, from 2006 to 2015, according to the IEM archive: 2006: 127 2007: 88 2008: 129 2009: 40 2010: 79 2011: 104 2012: 100 2013: 96 2014: 49 2015: 45 So, it's clear that the last two years have been particularly dire, though we did get a nice late pop last year to finish with 112 warnings on the entire season. On a personal level, this year has been the worst I can ever remember, with just one warning IMBY. I also saw a nice wall cloud in Saginaw County on June 22nd, but that obviously took a 200-mile round trip (and was also frustrating because I later missed out on the EF-2 that that storm produced). Does this include things like winter storm warnings and high wind warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Well, in terms of warnings, here's how many DTX has issued from January 1st through July 21st, from 2006 to 2015, according to the IEM archive: 2006: 127 2007: 88 2008: 129 2009: 40 2010: 79 2011: 104 2012: 100 2013: 96 2014: 49 2015: 45 So, it's clear that the last two years have been particularly dire, though we did get a nice late pop last year to finish with 112 warnings on the entire season. On a personal level, this year has been the worst I can ever remember, with just one warning IMBY. I also saw a nice wall cloud in Saginaw County on June 22nd, but that obviously took a 200-mile round trip (and was also frustrating because I later missed out on the EF-2 that that storm produced). For the Detroit area in 2015 (Wayne / Oakland / Macomb Counties), the below map tells the story better. For a region this big, 6-8 wind reports is what I would expect from ONE severe weather event, not for an entire season... There actually wasn't any severe weather locally on 6/22/15, per the SPC storm reports. There have also been no hail or tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 For the Detroit area in 2015 (Wayne / Oakland / Macomb Counties), the below map tells the story better. For a region this big, 6-8 wind reports is what I would expect from ONE severe weather event, not for an entire season... There actually wasn't any severe weather locally on 6/22/15, per the SPC storm reports. There have also been no hail or tornado reports. Interesting that they did not report the straight line wind damage in lapeer county that occurred on m-53 in almont with the 6/22 storms. Several utilities poles were snapped and one factory building sustained major damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Does this include things like winter storm warnings and high wind warnings? No, it's just severe thunderstorm and tornado. Another thing to point out is that this season has had zero severe weather events that outperformed expectations here. In fact, you could even make an argument that June 22nd underachieved given the parameters that accompanied that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 For the Detroit area in 2015 (Wayne / Oakland / Macomb Counties), the below map tells the story better. For a region this big, 6-8 wind reports is what I would expect from ONE severe weather event, not for an entire season... There actually wasn't any severe weather locally on 6/22/15, per the SPC storm reports. There have also been no hail or tornado reports. Will have to take a look through EC summaries for this year and see what's up on this side of the border. IIRC my county has had 3 severe thunderstorm warnings. May 30 which was moderate rain, June 22 which was a weakening storm with intense night-time lightning, and June 10th which there wasn't even a storm on radar. Sometime around June 16th a single severe storm cut across Southwestern Ontario with estimated winds to 93mph producing severe damage to farms in Oxford and Norfolk Counties. May 30th a bowing line of storms went across Middlesex County with 60mph winds, and a brief EF1 tornado unroofing a barn. June 22 a brief EF0 tornado hit central Huron County. Can't think of a single other damaging storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 It doesn't take bad winter weather for I 65 near the LAF to be dangerous: http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/5-dead-in-crash-on-interstate-65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 It doesn't take bad winter weather for I 65 near the LAF to be dangerous: http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/5-dead-in-crash-on-interstate-65 terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 It doesn't take bad winter weather for I 65 near the LAF to be dangerous: http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/5-dead-in-crash-on-interstate-65 They desperately need to widen that freeway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 This looks right up ALEKs alley... Drought Hack: Paint Your Lawn Green...: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 It doesn't take bad winter weather for I 65 near the LAF to be dangerous: http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/5-dead-in-crash-on-interstate-65 Terrible, and exactly what happened to me in February. I was stopped in traffic, semi driver wasn't paying attention and hit me at 70, knocked my car out of the way, and hit a vehicle in front of me. Makes my heart stop a bit to read these stories, and realize how lucky I am as my slow, loooong, recovery continues. That aside, something needs to be done on that highway. Widened, reduced speed limit, etc. Guaranteed for a pile up (or 5) in the winter, and then clear weather accidents like that. Back on topic, had to break out the sprinkler to water some recently transplanted bushes. Don't need buckets of rain, but a little would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Terrible, and exactly what happened to me in February. I was stopped in traffic, semi driver wasn't paying attention and hit me at 70, knocked my car out of the way, and hit a vehicle in front of me. Makes my heart stop a bit to read these stories, and realize how lucky I am as my slow, loooong, recovery continues. That aside, something needs to be done on that highway. Widened, reduced speed limit, etc. Guaranteed for a pile up (or 5) in the winter, and then clear weather accidents like that. Back on topic, had to break out the sprinkler to water some recently transplanted bushes. Don't need buckets of rain, but a little would be helpful. Hope you are healing. In 2002 a semi hit me on I-65 in daytime clear weather north of Lowell. I was in the driver's blind spot as a lane change was being made by the semi. Overturned three times and landed upside down in the median. Minor injuries thanks to seat belt and shoulder harness. The problem is semi drivers who drive too fast and don't pay attention. Nothing wrong with the road. Legislators need to hit the truck companies with stiff penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Hope you are healing. In 2002 a semi hit me on I-65 in daytime clear weather north of Lowell. I was in the driver's blind spot as a lane change was being made by the semi. Overturned three times and landed upside down in the median. Minor injuries thanks to seat belt and shoulder harness. The problem is semi drivers who drive too fast and don't pay attention. Nothing wrong with the road. Legislators need to hit the truck companies with stiff penalties.Agree completely. Had my hazard flashers on and everything, and still was hit at 70mph. Hopefully my attorneys can get a "stiff penalty" from the company for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Holy crap is "el nino" trending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Every NWS Forecast Discussion should automatically begin with one of the following phrases, since it seems to be a given for the past couple of years: MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILLREMAIN IN PLACE... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERNUNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILLCONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Wasp season this year is the worst I've ever seen. They're aggressive and literally everywhere.. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Awful day already, the warm and humid spot of the Midwest at 83/68. If today doesn't yield big storms, I won't hesitate to call this my least favorite summer of weather in a loooong time (though 2012 is debatable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Awful day already, the warm and humid spot of the Midwest at 83/68. If today doesn't yield big storms, I won't hesitate to call this my least favorite summer of weather in a loooong time (though 2012 is debatable). No debate at all with me about 2012. It was a great summer. I love anomalous weather. Heat, derechos, drought, extreme weather at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 No debate at all with me about 2012. It was a great summer. I love anomalous weather. Heat, derechos, drought, extreme weather at its finest. 2012 was a banner summer for me too. It wasn't as hot here as a lot of the other big cities in the midwest, but it was still very rare air (literally) to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 No debate at all with me about 2012. It was a great summer. I love anomalous weather. Heat, derechos, drought, extreme weather at its finest. Agreed. Other than the last 10 days, this Summer has delivered in practically every way that would annoy me weather-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Well, that was disappointing. It looked like it was going to be our best event all year for a while there, but then those storms in the Thumb spit out an OFB and it just turned into a sh-tshow. Pretty tough to get severe weather when it feels like freaking October out before the line hits. (And yes, before anyone jumps down my throat, I'm aware that this was absolutely a high-impact event for Central/Northern MI and Eastern WI. Bully for them. But this is the banter/complaint thread, so I'm gonna go ahead and banter/complain about the fact that it's August and MBY has still seen a grand total of O N E severe thunderstorm warning.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Well, that was disappointing. It looked like it was going to be our best event all year for a while there, but then those storms in the Thumb spit out an OFB and it just turned into a sh-tshow. Pretty tough to get severe weather when it feels like freaking October out before the line hits. (And yes, before anyone jumps down my throat, I'm aware that this was absolutely a high-impact event for Central/Northern MI and Eastern WI. Bully for them. But this is the banter/complaint thread, so I'm gonna go ahead and banter/complain about the fact that it's August and MBY has still seen a grand total of O N E severe thunderstorm warning.) Ya wins some, ya lose some. The fact we didn't have over night convection allowed for the warm front to blast to northern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Ya wins some, ya lose some. The fact we didn't have over night convection allowed for the warm front to blast to northern Michigan. Yeah, I mean, what can you even say? It's all just pretty much random chance in the end when it comes to severe weather. Thanks to IEM, I've been able to keep a nice chart of all the warnings IMBY since 2006. It's looking pretty likely that this year will be the comeuppance for the 2013's gigantic deviation from the mean. Which sucks and all, but on the other hand, 2013 was a blast. So all I can do is grin and bear it (and post banter in this thread every time something goes horribly wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Ya wins some, ya lose some. The fact we didn't have over night convection allowed for the warm front to blast to northern Michigan. This entire season has, more or less, been one big fat goose egg. That said, based on the radar, this event was arguably the best one of them all this season for Metro Detroit. One severe wind gust report came in from the west side of the city and I expect a couple hail reports also. Of course, none of this says much given how lackluster overall this event and season has been. EDIT: Also, timing was always expected to be non-ideal, whether overnight convection occurred or not. We'd probably be having a different discussion altogether if this came through between the 4pm to 7pm time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 This entire season has, more or less, been one big fat goose egg. That said, based on the radar, this event was arguably the best one of them all this season for Metro Detroit. One severe wind gust report came in from the west side of the city and I expect a couple hail reports also. Of course, none of this says much given how lackluster overall this event and season has been. EDIT: Also, timing was always expected to be non-ideal, whether overnight convection occurred or not. We'd probably be having a different discussion altogether if this came through between the 4pm to 7pm time frame... Stebo or any other red-tagged poster can feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but IMO, timing wasn't the issue so much as the well-defined OFB that all the storms in the Thumb ended up spitting out. The line was severe, then dropped to sub-severe limits as it ran into the cooler airmass behind the OFB. Then, it pulsed back up to severe limits in the past 30 minutes or so as it moved into areas where the OFB started to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Stebo or any other red-tagged poster can feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but IMO, timing wasn't the issue so much as the well-defined OFB that all the storms in the Thumb ended up spitting out. The line was severe, then dropped to sub-severe limits as it ran into the cooler airmass behind the OFB. Then, it pulsed back up to severe limits in the past 30 minutes or so as it moved into areas where the OFB started to weaken. The OFBs weren't an issue when the multiple rounds of MCSs were blowing their load in the Thumb and Saginaw Valley during peak heating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Yeah, I mean, what can you even say? It's all just pretty much random chance in the end when it comes to severe weather. Thanks to IEM, I've been able to keep a nice chart of all the warnings IMBY since 2006. It's looking pretty likely that this year will be the comeuppance for the 2013's gigantic deviation from the mean. Which sucks and all, but on the other hand, 2013 was a blast. So all I can do is grin and bear it (and post banter in this thread every time something goes horribly wrong). What adds salt to this season's wounds is that the "best" t'storms have mostly come through during the middle of the night (6/22, 4/9, etc.). At least if they occur in the daytime, we could get some good cloud optics if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 The OFBs weren't an issue when the multiple rounds of MCSs were blowing their load in the Thumb and Saginaw Valley during peak heating... Dynamics and MLCAPE were much better up there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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