dmc76 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Cold front isn't moving south fast enough keep the rain shield south of the border. Most of the metro area should see heavy rain tonight. My best chance of seeing heavy rain will be from the north. The stuff that's in the saginaw Valley. I think most of the Detroit area you probably have to watch what's going on along Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 1. There's plenty of instability over MI. LI's up to -6. Cape between 1000-1500. Bulk shear of 30-40 knots. PWAT's over 2. It's one thing to have the instability, and it's another to fully tap into it. For the reasons mentioned in my previous post, I wouldn't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 My best chance of seeing heavy rain will be from the north. The stuff that's in the saginaw Valley. I think most of the Detroit area you probably have to watch what's going on along Lake Michigan. You realize that's all congealing into one shield as the LLJ kicks up and the cold front sinks south, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 STratiform rain is never really "heavy" Maybe more like a steady moderate rain. When PWATs are this high, it will be very efficient rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 When PWATs are this high, it will be very efficient rains. But there probably won't be enough precip loading to fully utilize the high PWATs due to the lack of vertical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 You realize that's all congealing into one shield as the LLJ kicks up and the cold front sinks south, right? Yes I understand but the real action will be on the far southern part which will stay well south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yes I understand but the real action will be on the far southern part which will stay well south of us. If you are talking about the marginal severe stuff then yes. There is still going to be heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 If you are talking about the marginal severe stuff then yes. There is still going to be heavy rain. Your reasoning makes no sense though, the mean flow says that the stuff in IN should be moving this way and the stuff to the north is slowly sagging south. The LLJ is progged to move into the area tonight which if anything should maintain or increase convection. Where's this 'convection' you've been talking about? For all the flack DMC is getting in this thread, he's turning out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Where's this 'convection' you've been talking about? For all the flack DMC is getting in this thread, he's turning out to be right. There was clearly convection. A confirmed tornado. A few severe warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 And the flood watch dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Don't be surprised if some spots in the Detroit area doesn't even see a drop overnight. Might be the biggest bust in this area in long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Confirmed tornado in SE Michigan Chargers? Where did that happen? When I was clearly referencing Stebo's post which referred to convection increasing in SE Michigan, you can't use Northern Illinois events to make your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Confirmed tornado in SE Michigan Chargers? Where did that happen? When I was clearly referencing Stebo's post which referred to convection increasing in SE Michigan, you can't use Northern Illinois events to make your point. Dial it back, first off I said the convection was increasing over SW MI not SE MI and the LLJ ended up veering and focusing more on Northern OH which wasn't forecast. You might want to go back and reread my posts because I didn't say anything about convection over SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink it. I think it was the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think it was the other way around. You got it right for the wrong reason, it had nothing to do with instability. It had everything to do with the fact the LLJ which was progged to focus on SEMI ended up focusing on N OH, where all the heavy rain is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 not necessarily the majority of that line is going to shift south and southeast of us. Will get clipped with leftover light showers. Good call. One can call it being negative or whatever, but if we're being honest, anyone who has lived here and tracks weather knew it would be the same song/dance. Storms that blow up in IL/IN/OH normally do NOT bode well for us in these setups, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 You got it right for the wrong reason, it had nothing to do with instability. It had everything to do with the fact the LLJ which was progged to focus on SEMI ended up focusing on N OH, where all the heavy rain is. The position of the LLJ is always dictated, at least partially, by where the best convection tracks (especially if said convection morphs into a pseudo-cold front via their outflow/cold pool). The writing was clearly on the wall. If there's any positive side, it is still only mid-June and there should be plenty of other opportunities for strong/severe t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Good call. One can call it being negative or whatever, but if we're being honest, anyone who has lived here and tracks weather knew it would be the same song/dance. Storms that blow up in IL/IN/OH normally do NOT bode well for us in these setups, period. I do agree, but I will say it's a slippery slope to use climo in short term forecasting. We have one local forecaster who loves doing this same thing, his name is Rich Luterman. You will be right 9 times out of 10 doing it but one of these days, you'll be caught with your pants down.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Dial it back, first off I said the convection was increasing over SW MI not SE MI and the LLJ ended up veering and focusing more on Northern OH which wasn't forecast. You might want to go back and reread my posts because I didn't say anything about convection over SEMI. I'm sorry, but I didn't see SW Michigan mentioned once by you, and in your next post you mentioned how the cold front wasn't moving fast enough, and as a result, most of the metro would receive heavy rain. In this case, dmc76 handled the situation with ease and recognized trends (be it seasonal and radar trends, which were showing a downtick as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I remember when wisconsinwx didn't used to be such a bad poster. Those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 You all got schooled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Why would anyone use seasonal trends in short term forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Why would anyone use seasonal trends in short term forecasting? Hell if I know, seasonal trends aren't why the forecast ended up being right. It was entirely due to the LLJ not moving as far north as forecast and instead veering into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Why would anyone use seasonal trends in short term forecasting? I didn't get that response either. I know I didn't mentioning anything about seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 will wisconsinwx finally score with an MCS saturday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 will wisconsinwx finally score with an MCS saturday evening?"Seasonal trends" so nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 "Seasonal trends" so nah Boom. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 So excited for the mcs Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I'm NOT excited about the frost potential tonight. point has 36 for a low, but being a cool spot, I usually go lower on setups like this. Got lots of plants to bring inside this evening. UGH! Should be the last frost, as mid June is climo here. Now if I can get to 80, that would be nice...or 70's even. Been stuck in the 60's for highs for what seems like forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looks like the same crap next week. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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