bluewave Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Nice post, we also saw quite a bit of +PNA this winter as well which really helped. My question is where the AO and NAO are headed as far as a long term negative or positive phase. Since they tend to go long term + or - at the same time. The october Siberian snow cover theory turned out to be a dud for the most part. Whether or not the AMO plays a big role is something they are still debating. We are about to enter a cold phase (-AMO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Nice post, we also saw quite a bit of +PNA this winter as well which really helped. My question is where the AO and NAO are headed as far as a long term negative or positive phase. Since they tend to go long term + or - at the same time. The october Siberian snow cover theory turned out to be a dud for the most part. Whether or not the AMO plays a big role is something they are still debating. We are about to enter a cold phase (-AMO) -AMO and +PDO can lead to cold/snowy pattern for the east coast. Maybe not as cold as the past 2 years though which has been an incredible run with a coolish summer sandwiched in between. Also interesting the warm Oct, followed up by cold Nov and then warm Dec both winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 -AMO and +PDO can lead to cold/snowy pattern for the east coast. Maybe not as cold as the past 2 years though which has been an incredible run with a coolish summer sandwiched in between. Also interesting the warm Oct, followed up by cold Nov and then warm Dec both winters... The AMO is tanking negative very quickly right now. That combined with +ENSO this summer may very well mean a dismal to very dismal Atlantic hurricane season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The AMO is tanking negative very quickly right now. That combined with +ENSO this summer may very well mean a dismal to very dismal Atlantic hurricane seasonYes it will hopefully mean a dismal hurricane season, and it can mean that the intensity and frequency of the snow storms over the next several winters may begin to decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Yes it will hopefully mean a dismal hurricane season, and it can mean that the intensity and frequency of the snow storms over the next several winters may begin to decline. That energy has to go somewhere though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The AMO is tanking negative very quickly right now. That combined with +ENSO this summer may very well mean a dismal to very dismal Atlantic hurricane season it was dismal last year too with better teleconnections... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Thanks. The major blocking shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific in early 2013 reversed the Atlantic Tripole with a stronger North Atlantic Vortex cooling the SST's south of Greenland. The AMO reached peak values right before Sandy in October 2012. Since then the AMO has been in a more weakly positive state compared to the record warm levels of 2005-2012 under the strong -AO/-NAO. Could Sandy have been responsible for the major reversal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 it was dismal last year too with better teleconnections...It was dismal because of the +ENSO/El Nino creating wind shear from the Pacific and ripping the developing tropical waves apart aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 The AMO is tanking negative very quickly right now. That combined with +ENSO this summer may very well mean a dismal to very dismal Atlantic hurricane season That would be excellent news for millions of people. I never want to see another hurricane again, and I wouldn't live in a state where it was a more common concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 The CCSM4 model initialized with January 2013 conditions is doing very well so far at the beginning of the Forecast period in 2015. Notice how the model correctly predicted the change to strong +PDO conditions which set records this winter. It also successfully forecast the change to cooler SST's in the North Atlantic south of Greenland with warmer waters over the Central Atlantic. Initial conditions January 2013 very different from today J13.png Forecast initialized in 2013 for 2015 and beyond Screen shot 2015-03-14 at 7.54.00 AM.png Correct forecast so far at the very beginning of forecast period F15.png That ssta profile strongly supports +pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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