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2015 Global Sea Level Thread


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If you look closely, you can see disinformation or a kind of reassurance in these articles. Down here, there is a large subset of conservative people who won't accept the reality of what's coming. You can see it most strongly in local newspapers.

Real estate values and the real costs related to change. Who wants to admit to a slow motion disaster, when escaping its effects will cause so much personal upheaval? Which business or political leader wants the blame for a stampede?

 

Consciously or not, they know it, but can't bring themselves to address it actively. It's not actually 'conservatism'; it's something, but it's not that... 

 

You can see the same thing as an active process in any degrading environment.

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Real estate values and the real costs related to change. Who wants to admit to a slow motion disaster, when escaping its effects will cause so much personal upheaval? Which business or political leader wants the blame for a stampede?

 

Consciously or not, they know it, but can't bring themselves to address it actively. It's not actually 'conservatism'; it's something, but it's not that... 

 

You can see the same thing as an active process in any degrading environment.

In my mind, a stampede would not occur due to any public activism or admission by a credible source. Ironically, due to the possible doubling time of SLR, it could become a fast-motion disaster that sneaks up on most people who don't update themselves regularly on climate tipping points.

 

Changes to insurance rates and real estate aside, it's already very expensive to live along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast.

 

The idea of conservative is just that, preserve the way things are. Since SLR cannot be prevented on any reasonable level on any timescale we care about, the only way to conserve the status quo would be to ignore the issue.

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You're conflating the political with the psychological, which I'll guarantee will do nothing to change the status quo. The psychological resistance to change is a politically non-partisan event that needs to be addressed for what it is before any rational discussion of politically (and economically) feasible options can be considered. 

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You're conflating the political with the psychological, which I'll guarantee will do nothing to change the status quo. The psychological resistance to change is a politically non-partisan event that needs to be addressed for what it is before any rational discussion of politically (and economically) feasible options can be considered. 

I wish the same could be declared for climate change and related science.

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I wish the same could be declared for climate change and related science.

That's my point- they are- except that, in the absence of a proper separation and address of the psychological before the political, all you're left with is an 'acting out' of peoples emotional traumas within the political forum.

A favorite phrase of mine is that 'what's locked in the cellar has a nasty habit of burrowing up into the front yard'. So much more edifying to handle these things on their proper level. :yikes:

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Per chart posted above, which is AVISO data through October, sea level has spiked roughly 1.5 cm in the past year. That is roughly 5-years of increase at the recent trend of 0.33 cm per year.  Here is the same data de-trended (subtracting the long-term trend line from each observation) from Tamino's site. ENSO-related swings around the trend line have increased since 2010 with this years increase much larger than any previous nino. Too soon to tell though whether the long-term trend is turning upward.

 

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/14/higher-and-higher/

post-1201-0-69188500-1452862282_thumb.jp

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Per chart posted above, which is AVISO data through October, sea level has spiked roughly 1.5 cm in the past year. That is roughly 5-years of increase at the recent trend of 0.33 cm per year. Here is the same data de-trended (subtracting the long-term trend line from each observation) from Tamino's site. ENSO-related swings around the trend line have increased since 2010 with this years increase much larger than any previous nino. Too soon to tell though whether the long-term trend is turning upward.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/14/higher-and-higher/

sea_level_aviso _detrended.jpeg

Looks like measuring precision increased in 2010.

IIRC thats when jason-2 data came online.

Looks like maybe a resolution increase.

a large portion of this years rise is enso related.

But the long term trend since 2010 has increased with land ice melt + OHC increases being higher than any time before.

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Looks like measuring precision increased in 2010.

IIRC thats when jason-2 data came online.

Looks like maybe a resolution increase.

a large portion of this years rise is enso related.

But the long term trend since 2010 has increased with land ice melt + OHC increases being higher than any time before.

 

Yes there has probably been some increase in the long-term trend. The linear trend from Jan 2010 to now is about 50% higher than previous. Starting the trend analysis in Jan 2010 covers an entire ENSO cycle from nino to nino but of course this nino is stronger. Need to see how much of the SLR increase is maintained when nina returns to better isolate the enso effects.

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The open access paper below summarizes a modeling study covering the period from the end of the last glacial maximum to 10,000 years in the future.  Warm temperatures and sea level rise are projected to be with us for the entire 10,000 year period. Most of the sea level rise occurs in the first several thousand years, but some sea level rise will still be occurring 10,000 years from now, long after emissions end. The chart below plots committed sea-level rise against cumulative carbon emissions after the year 2000. Currently, at roughly 150 petagrams carbon emitted (Pg C, also gigaton) since 2000,  we are in the steepest portion of the emissions vs committed  sea level curve. In 2000 when the chart started, only 1.7 meters of sea level rise had been committed to ( uncertainty range 1.2 to 2.2). But committed sea level rise will increase to 9.2 meters if cumulative emissions double the 2000 cumulative emission total of 470 pg carbon. The bottom portion of the figure shows how much committed sea level rise will occur if emissions are held at 1990, 2010 and 2018 levels for 100 years after 2000.  Current emission rates, somewhere between the 2010 and 2019 curves, are increasing committed sea level rise by roughly 5 meters every 20 years.

 

Journal location:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2923.html#access

 

Open access:

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2923.epdf?referrer_access_token=uMj_w_rtu30xdZP5bPk6FdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P7bBCydl3XkC-iEMeXdnEdD0CDGSUB4J_y6QudGd2kHI-O4zS0GBOo2PCuJDFGc2JdJs0LGIrWoStPg8lYReA9WPhvUOlXxg_lsLNTky-rTo92ASz0mwxFQ_o95G2H-Ea_yk5Lfy1yHkwiWZBYzNt0lW4jAVmZk85N6w8xX2BxskLdg69o-RsizFr_M_fKQ9ceFEfiy9HlYzdtIMe2u7Vilz0_gvE-b4pK_TSs0Tl2IKtGL0OfHL6xFLJ2l08votA%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=26051679&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--EJ4K3UBfiYYNV0Nh-Ze2twfci7u6lJxPVE03XqiOJDmHatm0ZxJbkie4Am3ka3vXIPm8ThvRZaFtcPOtB5mCcscniCA&_hsmi=26051679

 

post-1201-0-10615100-1456238295_thumb.jp

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Below is the linear rate of sea level rise for the Aviso data from Jan 1993 to Dec 2015 plotted above. The rate for the entire series is up slightly to 3.35 mm/year (rounded to 3.4). The past six years from Jan 2010 to present, which is close to nino peak-to-peak, suggests that sea level rise is accelerating but trend uncertainty is large over short intervals.

 

post-1201-0-64800600-1456494712_thumb.jp

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Latest modeling study of Antarctica (open access). Huge difference in outcomes for different emission scenarios. Contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise - 2100: RCP2.6 - 0.1m, RCP4.5 - 0.5m, RCP8.5 - 1.1m; 2500: RCP 2.6 - 0.3m, RCP4.5 - 5.7m, RCP8.5 - 15.7m

http://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145.epdf?referrer_access_token=px-zRubs4M6aBBPl42_1GdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M-pvJMg7VLINRa2mnTNsvXfjbAFNU4M9sSVFBNmnefzinIWT5DIW6fVmmjzqPkWPG0EWAexculA_Dh1H0gVAzIYAUjdsj8uznmBvFk8_blNOM5-opyiSaKMyaJis4af48A0kgec2kZ8QcJLEQ0CKHzo1BxzQZ7aHlC6ggm5qLKPX8C4yz0OZ4SKpsmFZlbgUA%3D&tracking_referrer=www.nature.com

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Here is the latest Aviso sea level data through mid-December. As expected sea level rise has slowed with the Nino-->Nina transition, however global sea level remains above the trendline. This is despite the recent Nina rainfall pattern that favors lower sea level and above average fall snowfall on Greenland.

MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m.json.png

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