scottmartin49 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 If you look closely, you can see disinformation or a kind of reassurance in these articles. Down here, there is a large subset of conservative people who won't accept the reality of what's coming. You can see it most strongly in local newspapers. Real estate values and the real costs related to change. Who wants to admit to a slow motion disaster, when escaping its effects will cause so much personal upheaval? Which business or political leader wants the blame for a stampede? Consciously or not, they know it, but can't bring themselves to address it actively. It's not actually 'conservatism'; it's something, but it's not that... You can see the same thing as an active process in any degrading environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Real estate values and the real costs related to change. Who wants to admit to a slow motion disaster, when escaping its effects will cause so much personal upheaval? Which business or political leader wants the blame for a stampede? Consciously or not, they know it, but can't bring themselves to address it actively. It's not actually 'conservatism'; it's something, but it's not that... You can see the same thing as an active process in any degrading environment. In my mind, a stampede would not occur due to any public activism or admission by a credible source. Ironically, due to the possible doubling time of SLR, it could become a fast-motion disaster that sneaks up on most people who don't update themselves regularly on climate tipping points. Changes to insurance rates and real estate aside, it's already very expensive to live along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast. The idea of conservative is just that, preserve the way things are. Since SLR cannot be prevented on any reasonable level on any timescale we care about, the only way to conserve the status quo would be to ignore the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 You're conflating the political with the psychological, which I'll guarantee will do nothing to change the status quo. The psychological resistance to change is a politically non-partisan event that needs to be addressed for what it is before any rational discussion of politically (and economically) feasible options can be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 You're conflating the political with the psychological, which I'll guarantee will do nothing to change the status quo. The psychological resistance to change is a politically non-partisan event that needs to be addressed for what it is before any rational discussion of politically (and economically) feasible options can be considered. I wish the same could be declared for climate change and related science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I wish the same could be declared for climate change and related science. That's my point- they are- except that, in the absence of a proper separation and address of the psychological before the political, all you're left with is an 'acting out' of peoples emotional traumas within the political forum. A favorite phrase of mine is that 'what's locked in the cellar has a nasty habit of burrowing up into the front yard'. So much more edifying to handle these things on their proper level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Per chart posted above, which is AVISO data through October, sea level has spiked roughly 1.5 cm in the past year. That is roughly 5-years of increase at the recent trend of 0.33 cm per year. Here is the same data de-trended (subtracting the long-term trend line from each observation) from Tamino's site. ENSO-related swings around the trend line have increased since 2010 with this years increase much larger than any previous nino. Too soon to tell though whether the long-term trend is turning upward. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/14/higher-and-higher/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Per chart posted above, which is AVISO data through October, sea level has spiked roughly 1.5 cm in the past year. That is roughly 5-years of increase at the recent trend of 0.33 cm per year. Here is the same data de-trended (subtracting the long-term trend line from each observation) from Tamino's site. ENSO-related swings around the trend line have increased since 2010 with this years increase much larger than any previous nino. Too soon to tell though whether the long-term trend is turning upward. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/14/higher-and-higher/ sea_level_aviso _detrended.jpeg Looks like measuring precision increased in 2010. IIRC thats when jason-2 data came online. Looks like maybe a resolution increase. a large portion of this years rise is enso related. But the long term trend since 2010 has increased with land ice melt + OHC increases being higher than any time before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like measuring precision increased in 2010. IIRC thats when jason-2 data came online. Looks like maybe a resolution increase. a large portion of this years rise is enso related. But the long term trend since 2010 has increased with land ice melt + OHC increases being higher than any time before. Yes there has probably been some increase in the long-term trend. The linear trend from Jan 2010 to now is about 50% higher than previous. Starting the trend analysis in Jan 2010 covers an entire ENSO cycle from nino to nino but of course this nino is stronger. Need to see how much of the SLR increase is maintained when nina returns to better isolate the enso effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Jason 3 was launched within the past hour and is on its way to the polar orbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The open access paper below summarizes a modeling study covering the period from the end of the last glacial maximum to 10,000 years in the future. Warm temperatures and sea level rise are projected to be with us for the entire 10,000 year period. Most of the sea level rise occurs in the first several thousand years, but some sea level rise will still be occurring 10,000 years from now, long after emissions end. The chart below plots committed sea-level rise against cumulative carbon emissions after the year 2000. Currently, at roughly 150 petagrams carbon emitted (Pg C, also gigaton) since 2000, we are in the steepest portion of the emissions vs committed sea level curve. In 2000 when the chart started, only 1.7 meters of sea level rise had been committed to ( uncertainty range 1.2 to 2.2). But committed sea level rise will increase to 9.2 meters if cumulative emissions double the 2000 cumulative emission total of 470 pg carbon. The bottom portion of the figure shows how much committed sea level rise will occur if emissions are held at 1990, 2010 and 2018 levels for 100 years after 2000. Current emission rates, somewhere between the 2010 and 2019 curves, are increasing committed sea level rise by roughly 5 meters every 20 years. Journal location: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2923.html#access Open access: http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2923.epdf?referrer_access_token=uMj_w_rtu30xdZP5bPk6FdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P7bBCydl3XkC-iEMeXdnEdD0CDGSUB4J_y6QudGd2kHI-O4zS0GBOo2PCuJDFGc2JdJs0LGIrWoStPg8lYReA9WPhvUOlXxg_lsLNTky-rTo92ASz0mwxFQ_o95G2H-Ea_yk5Lfy1yHkwiWZBYzNt0lW4jAVmZk85N6w8xX2BxskLdg69o-RsizFr_M_fKQ9ceFEfiy9HlYzdtIMe2u7Vilz0_gvE-b4pK_TSs0Tl2IKtGL0OfHL6xFLJ2l08votA%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=26051679&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--EJ4K3UBfiYYNV0Nh-Ze2twfci7u6lJxPVE03XqiOJDmHatm0ZxJbkie4Am3ka3vXIPm8ThvRZaFtcPOtB5mCcscniCA&_hsmi=26051679 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Here is the latest sea level data - Aviso is into December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Below is the linear rate of sea level rise for the Aviso data from Jan 1993 to Dec 2015 plotted above. The rate for the entire series is up slightly to 3.35 mm/year (rounded to 3.4). The past six years from Jan 2010 to present, which is close to nino peak-to-peak, suggests that sea level rise is accelerating but trend uncertainty is large over short intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 CU updated GMSL. Seasonally adjusted down from peak in mid 2015 but still above linear trend of 3.3 mm/year through end of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Latest modeling study of Antarctica (open access). Huge difference in outcomes for different emission scenarios. Contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise - 2100: RCP2.6 - 0.1m, RCP4.5 - 0.5m, RCP8.5 - 1.1m; 2500: RCP 2.6 - 0.3m, RCP4.5 - 5.7m, RCP8.5 - 15.7m http://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145.epdf?referrer_access_token=px-zRubs4M6aBBPl42_1GdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M-pvJMg7VLINRa2mnTNsvXfjbAFNU4M9sSVFBNmnefzinIWT5DIW6fVmmjzqPkWPG0EWAexculA_Dh1H0gVAzIYAUjdsj8uznmBvFk8_blNOM5-opyiSaKMyaJis4af48A0kgec2kZ8QcJLEQ0CKHzo1BxzQZ7aHlC6ggm5qLKPX8C4yz0OZ4SKpsmFZlbgUA%3D&tracking_referrer=www.nature.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Aviso sea level data as of mid February - still running above trend but should start to see a nina-related slowdown later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 CU GMSL updated yesterday(through February 22, 2016). As you might expect, slight uptick like AVISO latest update. Also long term trend up to 3.4 mm/year from 3.3 mm/year. Seasonal adjusted should start to fall closer to the linear thend as +ENSO wanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Here is the latest Aviso sea level data through mid-December. As expected sea level rise has slowed with the Nino-->Nina transition, however global sea level remains above the trendline. This is despite the recent Nina rainfall pattern that favors lower sea level and above average fall snowfall on Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Looks like ENSO & Detrended GMSL will separate if you include the Aviso data posted above, which includes about 6 months more of data. There may be a slight drop but nothing like the 1998 drop with MEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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