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Drought Watch 2015


Hoosier

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Guest ovweather

Time to revive this thread as drought conditions are slowly creeping in to parts of the lower OV. After an incredibly wet spring along the Ohio River, the faucet has run dry. Sitting at about 1.50" total in my backyard over the past 7 weeks. With the SE ridge firmly in place, the past week has been hot, and things have really dried out. Lots of brown, crunchy grass, and some plants are showing stress.

Hopefully, this is just a short-term thing, and not a sign of things to come later in the summer. Give me flooding rains any day over drought / heat.

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Time to revive this thread as drought conditions are slowly creeping in to parts of the lower OV. After an incredibly wet spring along the Ohio River, the faucet has run dry. Sitting at about 1.50" total in my backyard over the past 7 weeks. With the SE ridge firmly in place, the past week has been hot, and things have really dried out. Lots of brown, crunchy grass, and some plants are showing stress.

Hopefully, this is just a short-term thing, and not a sign of things to come later in the summer. Give me flooding rains any day over drought / heat.

 

Hoosier started this thread due to dry conditions in the upper Midwest/Northern part of the subforum. With the pattern shift, most areas in the north are okay, but yeah, hard to believe after all of the rain you had earlier in the spring that you're getting dry. If that Bermuda high hangs around, you could be in for a long summer.

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Guest ovweather

Yeah, funny how things have done a 180. Here, the year started very dry, then turned very wet, now back to very dry. We went from 4 inches below normal, to 8 inches above normal, now falling back to near normal for the year. The upper Midwest, lower Lakes were drier then normal in the early spring now very wet. Nature always balances things out, but I just hope she doesn't wait too long. Droughts are the worst weather phenomenon, in my opinion. Here in the lower OV, it seems we have at least a moderate drought in the summer approximately every 5 years on average.

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  • 3 months later...

We've had 11 straight days without rain and it appears no rain will fall in the next 10 to 15 days. Have to beleive we may approach drought status in early October. If we get no more rain this month we will finish with .84 of rain, the 14th driest in history.

 

Other than that the weather has been beautiful with low to mid 80's for highs, upper 50's to low 60's for low. No humidity! I don't see this changing anytime soon even though our average high is down to 78 and will be 75 by the end of the month.

 

The OV keeps wanting to go into drought. Here is last week's map. it will be interesting to see where abnormally dry conditions expands with the new issuance.

 

post-830-0-10881500-1443004114_thumb.jpg

 

EDIT: Thread delayed but not denied?

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The OV keeps wanting to go into drought. Here is last week's map. it will be interesting to see where abnormally dry conditions expands with the new issuance.

 

attachicon.gif20150915_midwest_trd.jpg

 

EDIT: Thread delayed but not denied?

 

 

Some areas of D1 in IN/KY on the most recent update.  Noticed there's a decent amount of D2 to even D3 in the lower MS Valley area, though you'd think the Nino would take care of that as we go forward.

 

 

20150922_usdm_home.png 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Hoping that moisture advection with the weekend and next week's systems produce or drought could become an issue. I'm not sure if feedback in the fall/winter months is a big player like it is in the summer. Could anybody in the know chime in?

 

attachicon.gif20151013_midwest_date.pngattachicon.gif20151020_midwest_trd.png

 

 

My understanding is that the feedback is much more significant in the warm season.

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My understanding is that the feedback is much more significant in the warm season.

 

 

There is still a pretty direct correlation going into the winter with respect to soil moisture and potential positive snow anomalies.

 

yeah, i was under the impression the connection remained strong

 

add to that typical dry nino conditions and the dry signal is pretty loud

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Evaporation rates are much stronger in summer.  Hard to believe that the feedback cycle in fall/winter would be anything like summer.

 

I haven't really looked into what Stebo is saying, but if we're talking dry Octobers, I know there are plenty of examples where it didn't hold through winter and I would guess that if there's a correlation between October precip and winter precip (note:  not snow, precip), it's not very strong. 

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Evaporation rates are much stronger in summer.  Hard to believe that the feedback cycle in fall/winter would be anything like summer.

 

I haven't really looked into what Stebo is saying, but if we're talking dry Octobers, I know there are plenty of examples where it didn't hold through winter and I would guess that if there's a correlation between October precip and winter precip (note:  not snow, precip), it's not very strong. 

Yeah it isn't just locally, but upstream from us as well, you don't want drought and abnormally low soil moisture upstream going into winter. Those fall conditions leading into winter rarely yield in the positive direction.

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Evaporation rates are much stronger in summer.  Hard to believe that the feedback cycle in fall/winter would be anything like summer.

 

I haven't really looked into what Stebo is saying, but if we're talking dry Octobers, I know there are plenty of examples where it didn't hold through winter and I would guess that if there's a correlation between October precip and winter precip (note:  not snow, precip), it's not very strong.

Well let's use 1964 for example which had a very dry October Chicagos 2nd driest on record behind 1897,post-5916-0-99986500-1445543145_thumb.pn

Obviously 64 was not a strong Nino, and the pattern will be different, but here is what the following winter looked like

post-5916-0-37792100-1445543195_thumb.pn

Near normal anomalies country wide.

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Well let's use 1964 for example which had a very dry October Chicagos 2nd driest on record behind 1897,attachicon.gifimage.png

Obviously 64 was not a strong Nino, and the pattern will be different, but here is what the following winter looked like

attachicon.gifimage.png

Near normal anomalies country wide.

A large portion of the country caught back up though in November and our source region was above normal to the southwest cd65.46.187.134.294.13.53.5.prcp.png

 

In which case right now for this month the southern plains are catching up and will probably end up above normal, that should help considerably.

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